LEE KUAN YEW: MINISTER AND PATRIARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 003110

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON SN
SUBJECT: LEE KUAN YEW: MINISTER AND PATRIARCH

REF: A. SINGAPORE 1486

B. SINGAPORE 109

Classified By: EP Counselor Ike Reed. Reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's October 9-23
visit to the United States will be an opportunity for him to
discuss with senior USG officials the broad strategic
developments that affect Singapore's future, notably the rise
of China and India. The reemergence of these two powers on
the world stage will profoundly affect the political and
economic dynamics in Southeast Asia over the next several
decades, in Lee's view. He will argue that a robust United
States presence in Southeast Asia will continue to be
critical to ensure regional peace and prosperity during this
dynamic period. He also believes the United States must
succeed in Iraq to win the broader war on terror. Lee's keen
strategic vision and wealth of personal contacts remain
assets to Singapore. However, his continued overshadowing of
his son, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, acts as a brake on
political modernization and his cantankerous scolding of
younger Singaporeans increasingly makes him look out of step.
Lee's eventual passing will not likely be a catalyst for
radical political change, but it will certainly be
indispensable to any significant political reform. End
Summary.

Emphasis on Strategy, Not Tactics
--------------


2. (C) The founding father of modern Singapore, Minister
Mentor Lee Kuan Yew (LKY),will visit the United States from
October 9-23. LKY has dominated the political scene for
decades, serving as Prime Minister from 1959-1990, Senior
Minister from 1990-2004, and Minister Mentor since 2004.
Today, the 83-year-old Lee devotes his time and energy to
examining the broad strategic developments that affect
Singapore's future, notably the rise of China and India.
These are the themes he will discuss during his meetings with
the President, the Vice President, the Secretary, the
Secretary of Defense, and other senior USG officials and

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business leaders.


3. (C) LKY is still a tremendous asset for Singapore. His
keen strategic vision has guided Singapore's economic rise
and ensured its political stability in a difficult region.
It has been almost 16 years since he was PM and he has pulled
back from day-to-day policy making. At times, however, he
will jump into an issue that concerns him, and remind
Singaporeans that his opinion matters above all others. He
has inculcated his vision in succeeding generations of
leaders so his beliefs and style will continue to guide
Singapore for years. LKY is also an asset for the United
States, seeing eye to eye with us on many of the key
strategic issues and challenges in Southeast Asia and the
greater region.

China and India
--------------


4. (C) The reemergence of China and India on the world stage
will profoundly affect the political and economic dynamics in
Southeast Asia over the next several decades, in LKY's view.
He believes that the current leadership in China is committed
to economic growth and wants to avoid any external conflicts
(especially with the United States) that could interrupt
China's development. He is less sanguine about future
generations of leaders, who will have grown up in a more
affluent and nationalistic society. With its fits and starts
in economic reform, India has "disappointed" LKY in the past.
Galvanized by China's growing economic juggernaut, LKY
believes India is now committed to making the economic
changes it has needed for decades and he expects it to
develop almost as rapidly as China.

Shared Concerns on Terrorism
--------------


5. (C) LKY is deeply worried about terrorism, as both a
global problem and a direct threat to the well-being of
Singapore. He has told visitors that the current wave of
Islamic terrorism will ebb, as long as the terrorists don't
win now in Iraq (Ref B). If the United States fails in Iraq,
it will spark a surge of terrorism around the world and "I'll
have Jemaah Islamiyah chaps coming from Indonesia to blow me
up." LKY is also concerned about the influence of Middle

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East-style Islam on traditionally moderate Muslims in
Southeast Asia and its potential to make them intolerant and
radical. In the long-term, this more radical type of Islam
could pose a threat to secular authority in Indonesia and
Malaysia, in his view.

Welcoming the United States, but not our politics
-------------- --------------


6. (C) A robust United States presence in Southeast Asia
continues to be critical for regional peace and prosperity,
LKY will argue. During the Cold War, the United States gave
the emerging, fragile states of the region time to develop,
and U.S. engagement remains essential to balance the rise of
China and India. He is always concerned that the United
States will withdraw from the region, either by turning its
attention elsewhere or by turning inwards.


7. (C) LKY openly admires the dynamism of the United States
economy, but is no fan of our political system and its
vibrant press and stiff competition. He remains unapologetic
about the tough, authoritarian tactics he has used against
his opponents and critics. He continues to use defamation
suits to isolate, bankrupt and drive from politics his
domestic opponents and to intimidate the foreign press. This
year, he has continued to wield the defamation stick against
opposition politician Chee Soon Juan. Even while Singapore
was at the center of world media attention during the
IMF/World Bank meetings, local press reported his latest law
suit against the Far Eastern Economic Review.

Leader for Life
--------------


8. (C) Lee Kuan Yew remains active and travels frequently.
In the last year, he has made eight foreign trips -- to
Europe, North East Asia, and the Middle East. At the same
time, he paces himself and doesn't take on too many
commitments. Mentally, he is as sharp as ever. He can
integrate the latest headlines with events over the past five
decades to form the basis for his analysis of political and
economic developments. LKY remains a valuable asset for
Singapore. He has a wealth of personal contacts that few,
including Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, can rival. Many a
senior visitor comes to Singapore just to hear LKY impart his
geostrategic wisdom.


9. (C) On the home front, LKY's mere presence helps keep the
ruling People' Action Party (PAP) highly disciplined and
effective. LKY's continued prominence comes at a cost to his
son's image and to the ability of the Singaporean political
system to adapt and reform, however. In his two years as PM,
Lee Hsien Loong has reversed only one significant policy of
his father's -- the ban on casinos. In a calculated move to
boost Singapore's tourism sector and demonstrate his
independence from his father, PM Lee authorized casinos in

2005. LKY acquiesced to the change. But this is the
exception, not the rule. Singapore's younger leaders do not
readily put forward ideas that LKY is not likely to support.
Some political observers, not friendly to the PAP, told us
they actually felt sorry for PM Lee since he can not be his
own man as long as his father is on the scene.


10. (C) The May general election offered LKY the perfect
opportunity to step down gracefully from half a century on
the political stage and allow his son to win his own mandate.
He didn't take it (Ref A). LKY became an electoral
liability, overshadowing PM Lee, and coming across as a
cantankerous old man eager to scold an ungrateful and spoiled
younger generation and out of step with contemporary
Singapore. He has even said he would run again in the next
election, due five years from now. Most Singaporeans are
grateful for the security and prosperity that LKY's five
decades of leadership have brought and are comforted by his
presence. But many also seem ready for a less patronizing
government. LKY's eventual passing will not likely be a
catalyst for radical political change, as so much of
Singapore's leadership and citizenry have been molded by his
values. But it will certainly be indispensable to any
significant political reform.
HERBOLD