Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SHANGHAI7043
2006-11-13 09:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:  

SHANGHAI SCHOLARS ON SCO AND RUSSIA

Tags:  PREL PGOV CH RS UZ TI KZ KG TX 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5953
RR RUEHAST RUEHCN RUEHDBU RUEHGH
DE RUEHGH #7043/01 3170910
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 130910Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5243
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0298
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0280
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0384
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0301
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0285
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ALMATY 0002
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 0002
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0002
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT 0002
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 5550
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SHANGHAI 007043 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH RS UZ TI KZ KG TX
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI SCHOLARS ON SCO AND RUSSIA

REF: BEIJING 23353

CLASSIFIED BY: Mary Tarnowka, Section Chief, Political/Economic
Section, U.S. Consulate Shanghai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SHANGHAI 007043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH RS UZ TI KZ KG TX
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI SCHOLARS ON SCO AND RUSSIA

REF: BEIJING 23353

CLASSIFIED BY: Mary Tarnowka, Section Chief, Political/Economic
Section, U.S. Consulate Shanghai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: In contrast to scholars in Beijing (Reftel),
Shanghai SCO scholars told visiting EAP Poloffs in November 1-3
meetings that is unlikely that the SCO will accept new members
in 2007, especially Iran. They expect China to continue to
promote multilateral economic cooperation within the SCO and to
favor economic cooperation as a means to promote regional
stability in countries of concern, such as Afghanistan. The
scholars support more cooperation and dialogue between the
United States and SCO, and one suggested that the United States
and Japan become SCO partners. They characterized the political
relationship between Russia and China as "good", but "not as
good as it should be." End Summary.




2. (C) During their November 1-3 visit to Shanghai, EAP
Political Officers Longenecker and Chernawsky, accompanied by
Poloff, met with three of Shanghai's prominent Russia and SCO
scholars: Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) Institute
of European and Asian Studies Director Pan Guang; Shanghai
Institute of International Studies (SIIS) Russia-Central Asian
Studies Director Lu Gang; and SIIS Research Management and
International Exchanges Director Shao Yuqun.



--------------

No New SCO Members

--------------




3. (C) In contrast to the views expressed by Beijing scholars
reported reftel, the three Shanghai SCO scholars all believed it
was unlikely that the SCO would accept any new members in 2007.
Pan said that while the Secretariat General had been tasked with
coming up with a mechanism for countries to become members, he
thought that the mechanism would not be ready in time to allow
new members in 2007. He indicated that although it was clear
Iran wanted good relations with Central Asia, Russia and China,

several SCO members were uncomfortable with having Iran as a
member. Pan noted that Iran had joined the SCO as an observer
before Ahmadinejad became President and before the nuclear
crisis. He said that several members of the SCO wanted neither
for the SCO to become involved in the nuclear issue nor for it
to provide Iran a platform. He noted that there were also
divisions within the SCO over membership for India and Pakistan.
Pan explained that there were currently no border disputes
among SCO members, but many of the possible new partners had
such issues.




4. (C) Lu and Shao noted that the SCO was a young organization
that was still evolving. Before it could accept any new
members, existing members needed to decide what type of
organization they wanted the SCO to be. If the SCO accepted
members outside of Central Asia, this could shift its regional
focus. Adding too many new members would dilute its
effectiveness. Shao said there were lots of regional
organizations that did nothing more then hold meetings and talk.
He did not want to see that happen to the SCO.



--------------

SCO: Need More Economic Cooperation

--------------

SHANGHAI 00007043 002 OF 004






5. (C) Pan said that while the SCO has had successful
cooperation on security, counterterrorism and border issues, so
far, there had not been significant economic cooperation on the
multilateral level. If most economic cooperation remained on
the bilateral level, then there was no need for the SCO. He
added that there was a possibility that Russia might join the
Kazakh/China oil pipeline and that this could be the first joint
economic project under the SCO framework. SIIS Lu Gang was
more positive about economic cooperation. He said that, from
the Chinese Government's point of view, economic cooperation was
the most important part of the SCO process and vital to
maintaining security in the region. China had initiated a USD
900 million loan program to Central Asian entrepreneurs and
provided economic training to 1,500 people from SCO Central
Asian countries.



--------------

Continuing Concerns Over Regional Stability

--------------




6. (C) The scholars were concerned about stability in the
region, in particular in Afghanistan. According to Pan,
Afghanistan was not stable and China was concerned that this
instability would negatively impact the situation in Xinjiang,
which bordered Afghanistan. Pan said he personally supported
NATO's request that SCO members send peacekeeping troops to
Afghanistan. He noted that China had sent 1,000 peacekeepers to
Lebanon at French President Chirac's request and commented that
Afghanistan's stability was more directly in China's interest.
Pan said that sending SCO peacekeepers would be "too
complicated" and advocated a Chinese troop contribution as more
realistic, but said that the Government was not seriously
considering the idea. Lu said China could not send troops to
Afghanistan but could send resources. He supported more
cooperation between the United States and China on Afghanistan
and suggested that both countries engage in a concrete area such
as drug-trafficking.




7. (C) Shao said China was also concerned about stability in
the five Central Asian countries. According to Shao, most
problems in the region stemmed from the fact that most of the
current leaders had held power since the break-up of the Soviet
Union and were unwilling to implement changes. It was unlikely
that there would be any significant political reform until there
was a new generation of leaders. She said that the current
period was a transitional period, during which the region was at
its most vulnerable state. She said Kazakhstan was the most
stable country in the region and the only one that had
implemented significant economic reforms and joined the global
economy. While there was some friction in the relationship over
oil resources and the pipeline, China had a cooperative
relationship with Kazakhstan. Shao

also said noted the improved economic situation in Uzbekistan
and said that this would improve stability in the country. She
said China was most concerned about Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan's president continued to have problems in controlling
the country and Tajikistan would have elections in the near
future.



-------------- --

SCO: Welcome Cooperation From the United States

-------------- --


SHANGHAI 00007043 003 OF 004





8. (C) Lu stressed that the SCO was not an anti-American
organization and was not being used by Russia and China as a
platform to oppose the United States. Pan had a similar
viewpoint and added that the SCO and United States had common
interests, especially on non-security issues such as health,
environment and drug trafficking. He added that most SCO
countries supported good relations with the United States, with
Uzbekistan an exception. He added that the United States and
Japan, which had expressed an interest in becoming an observer,
could become SCO partners. This would be similar to NATO's
Partnership for Peace program which allowed some countries to
cooperate and have a dialogue with NATO. An SCO partner could
have a liaison office at the SCO Secretariat, join military
exercises as an observer, and conduct joint projects in areas
such as poverty alleviation and combating drug trafficking.




9. (C) Shao and Lu said there should be more discussions
between U.S., Chinese and Russian scholars about Central Asia.
Shao noted that, in meetings with Chinese scholars, Central
Asian scholars always complained about the United States. In
their meetings with the United States, they always complained
about China. To prevent themselves from being manipulated by
the smaller countries, Russia, China and the United States
should increase their own coordination. Shao acknowledged that
China was concerned about the U.S. presence in Central Asia.
China was not only concerned about the color revolutions, but
also the U.S. military base in Kyrgyzstan which was near the
Chinese border. China needed a clearer understanding of USG
intentions toward Central Asia. Shao was particularly
interested in the USG's new Greater Central Asia Initiative.



-------------- --------------

China-Russia: Relations Not As Good As It Should Be

-------------- --------------




10. (C) According to Pan, good China-Russia relations were in
the interests of both countries. The border between the two
countries was over 7,000 km long and both countries benefited
from bilateral energy and economic cooperation. While there
might be differences, the countries were always able to reach a
compromise because they had common interests. He added that he
had seen a report that said most Chinese believed that, within
the next ten years, Russia would not be a threat to China.
(Note: Pan did not specify as to why Chinese people did not view
Russia as a threat. End Note.) However, there continued to be
tensions between Russian and Chinese people. Pan attributed
this to the influx of Chinese laborers in the Russian Far East.
Many Russians feared that China would take over the area if this
trend continued.




11. (C) Lu and Shao had similar views. They said that the
overall political relationship between Russia and China was
"good", but had not reached a "partnership" level. The
China-Russia relationship was not at the same level as the
U.S.-British or even the U.S.-Japanese relationship. In
addition, President Hu and President Putin did not have close
personal relations like President Bush and British Prime
Minister Blair. Shao said that, unlike past Chinese leaders, Hu
did not speak Russian or have a deep understanding of Russian
issues. She added that President Putin also did not have a deep
understanding of China. Like Pan, she thought that the
relationship on the people-to-people level was not as good as it
should be. In addition to the tensions caused by Russian
concerns about Chinese laborers in the Russian Far East, there
were also concerns about the lack of energy cooperation. She
noted that Russia, to some extent, saw a rising China as a
threat. She added that the relationship was also affected by

SHANGHAI 00007043 004 OF 004


each country's relationship with the United States. The
deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations had allowed China to
establish a closer relationship with Russia. Shao was not
certain the two countries would have such a close relationship
if U.S.-Russia relations improved.




12. (C) According to the scholars, both PRC and Russian leaders
were actively engaged in efforts to promote better relations
between the peoples of their two countries. For example, China
had designated 2006 as "the year of Russia" and Russia had
designated 2007 as "the year of China." The scholars hoped that
such programs would increase trust between the two countries and
lead to greater cooperation on Central Asia and other issues.
They noted that Shanghai was contributing to this effort by
investing USD 1.3 billion in a luxury real estate project in St.
Petersburg. All three scholars noted that the project was very
controversial, but that it was supported by the mayor of St.
Petersburg who was a close friend of President Putin.




13. (C) EAP Political Officer Sam Chernawsky cleared this
report.
JARRETT