EAST CHINA VIEWS ON PEACEFUL RISE AND HARMONIOUS WORLD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 006459

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/KOEPKE
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - MCQUEEN, CELICO
NSC FOR WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EINV ECON CH
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA VIEWS ON PEACEFUL RISE AND HARMONIOUS WORLD

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CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat , DPO, U.S. Consulate, Shanghai,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. According to East China scholars, China's
foreign policy doctrine is moving beyond the concept of
"Peaceful Development" to "Harmonious World." President Hu,
determined to put his stamp on China's foreign policy, had
initially supported the "Peaceful Rise" concept promoted by
foreign policy advisor Zheng Bijian. High-level opposition to
the term "rise," however, led Zheng to devise the current
"Harmonious World" formulation. Conferences and speeches have
focused on the "Harmonious World" concept, including a recent
Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Conference reported septel.
East China scholars also tell us that while "peaceful rise" had
been removed from the official foreign policy lexicon, the
concept still retained explanative power and was making a
comeback. End Summary.

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Peacefully Developing Out of Conflict
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2. (C) In a June discussion, Director of the Russian and
Central Asian Studies department of the well-connected Shanghai
Institute of International Studies (SIIS) Lu Gang provided
Poloff with a history of the "Peaceful Development" and
"Peaceful Rise" concepts. He said the "Peaceful Rise" concept
formulated by Zheng Bijian, China Reform Forum President and one
of Beijing's top foreign policy advisors, was born out of
Zheng's desire to make China's foreign policy catch up with
China's 21st century realities. According to Lu, China's
prevailing--and outmoded--formulation, "Peaceful Development,"
had emerged in the early 1980s after Deng Xiaoping reached
preeminence. In the 1970s, China's foreign policy had been
aimed at playing the United States off against Russia in order
to avoid a conflict with either. After Deng began implementing
a policy of rapid economic growth to strengthen regime
legitimacy, a foreign affairs academic named He Fang proposed
that, rather than manipulating international tensions, China
would do better to minimize them over in order to create a
favorable international environment to allow for Chinese
export-led economic growth.


3. (C) He's "Peaceful Development" formulation, as it was
known, held that, in order to maintain legitimacy and
stability, China's economy needed to develop. In order for
China's economy to develop, it needed a peaceful international
situation. In other words, China's foreign policy should focus
on resolving political struggles with other countries to foster
economic cooperation, which would allow for expansion of exports
to drive domestic growth. Deng -- at the behest of his advisor
Huan Xiang -- adopted the policy, which continued after his
death. By 2000, China's entire foreign policy was aimed at
promoting an export-friendly international system.


4. (SBU) However, China was too big and its development
happened too fast, according to Lu. Towards the middle of the
1990s, other countries began worrying that China had ulterior
motives and was "rising" militarily as well as economically.
Those fears were bolstered after China's escalation of tensions
in the Taiwan Straits in 1995-96. Moreover, other countries
began worrying about China's claim on natural resources, oil,
and food, fears epitomized by Lester Brown's 1995 book "Who Will
Feed China."

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Rising out of Development
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5. (C) According to Lu, by 2000 Zheng had reached the
conclusion that the "Peaceful Development" concept was out of
date and over the next three years formulated his "Peaceful
Rise" concept. Zheng argued that foreigners had already
concluded that China was rising and had moved past
"development." China needed to openly recognize that it was
becoming an important international and regional player while at
the same time reassure other nations that China had no ill
intentions and was still committed to maintaining a peaceful
international environment in order to continue developing.
China needed to mold the international environment not just to
create a favorable export environment, but also to allow China

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to take its rightful place on the world stage.


6. (C) Lu said that initially, President Hu Jintao and Premier
Wen Jiabao embraced Zheng's "Peaceful Rise" concept, and used it
in some of their speeches. According to Lu, Zheng had become
"close friends" with Hu when Hu was head of the Central Party
School and Zheng was his deputy. Lu believed that Zheng had
even served as Hu's personal secretary at one point. Although
also respected by former President Jiang Zemin, Zheng was loyal
to Hu.


7. (C) During an August 4 discussion with Poloffs, Fudan
University's Center for American Studies Director Shen Dingli
said that initially some influential Shanghai scholars had
supported the "Peaceful Rise" formulation. For instance, Vice
President of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Huang Renwei and Director of the SASS Institute of World Economy
Zhang Youwen oversaw the SASS publication of five books on
Peaceful Rise in 2004 in an effort to ingratiate themselves with
Zheng.


8. (C) According to Lu, despite high-level support, Zheng's
ideas met with bureaucratic resistance. Old-timers in the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs argued that China could not use the
word "rise" in its foreign policy formulation lest it signal to
the rest of the world that--never mind the word
"peaceful"--China had hegemonistic intentions. Shen told us
that Jiang had sided with the older diplomats and opposed the
new formulation, arguing that China would not be peaceful if
Taiwan declared independence.


9. (C) Shen asserted that, at an April 23, 2004, Politburo
meeting, on the eve of the Boao Forum, party leaders discussed
the "Peaceful Rise" phrase and decided three things: 1) China
was not afraid to say "Peaceful Rise"; 2) it was not necessary,
however, to use the phrase, and; 3) it was better to say
"Peaceful Development." During an August 7 conversation,
Jiaotong University's Center for National Strategy Studies Vice
Director Zhuang Jianzhong affirmed that the Politburo meeting
had taken place. He glossed the decision as meaning that the
leadership would refrain from using "Peaceful Rise" in its
official policy documents and official speeches, but that it was
acceptable for scholars to use the phrase. Zhuang noted that,
even after the Politburo meeting, Jiang had visited the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences in his capacity of Chairman of the
Central Military Commission to try to convince the scholars
there not to use the "Peaceful Rise" formulation.


10. (C) Shen noted that some, including himself, objected to
the "Peaceful Rise" terminology for other reasons. China had
"risen" already in 1949, with Mao's proclamation of the founding
of the PRC. Ever since China's initial "rise," Shen said, there
had been nothing peaceful about it. Domestically, Shen
(protect) cited the anti-rightist campaigns of the 1950s, the
Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, the Tiananmen
Massacre, and the killing of peasants in Guangdong earlier this
year as evidence of the Party's pugnacious nature. Shen also
pointed to the numerous border skirmishes with India, Russia,
and Vietnam, as well as the government's killing of 12
Vietnamese sailors last year to demonstrate China's
international bellicosity.

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The Rising Development of a Harmonious World
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11. (C) Lu believed that Zheng had accepted the reality of the
political situation and had moved beyond his initial "Peaceful
Rise" notion to the new "Harmonious World" concept. According
to Lu, in 2000--the same time Zheng had been formulating his
initial "Peaceful Rise" concept--the central leadership adopted
a "strategic perspective" that called for maintaining a peaceful
international climate until at least 2020. Major world conflict
should be avoided during this 20 year period to give China a
"strategic opportunity" to develop into an economic and military
power. Although China would focus on avoiding war during this
20 year period, Lu acknowledged that Taiwan was the one wildcard
and China would not hesitate to use force to bring Taiwan back
into the fold.


12. (C) According to Lu, Zheng assessed that if China was to
peacefully rise and fully realize its "strategic opportunity" it
must focus more heavily on resolving domestic problems. In
addition to maintaining a good foreign environment, issues

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associated with China's "peaceful development" to date, such as
the growing gap between rich and poor, the east-west gap, and
the urban-rural gap, needed to be resolved or else China's
"strategic opportunity" would be lost. To that end, Zheng
supported and promoted Hu's "Harmonious Society" and "Scientific
Development Concepts" as important components of China's overall
foreign policy. Moreover, situations that embroiledChina in
conflict with other nations or non-state actors meant that its
resources would be siphoned away from resolving domestic
tensions that threatened regime stability. In other words,
China's foreign policy could no longer focus solely on
maintaining a favorable export environment, but needed to focus
on international stability to allow China to clean up its
domestic problems. Cooperation on issues outside of trade
relationships needed to be given greater importance. Lu noted,
for instance, that China understood the emerging threat of
global terrorism to their "strategic opportunity" and had
attached great importance to the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization as a result.


13. (C) During a late August meeting, Nanjing University
Professor Gu Su agreed with Lu that Zheng was the primary driver
of the "Harmonious World" concept. Gu said that this new
foreign policy tack meant an emphasis on cooperation instead of
"rise," although, he noted, the "rise" was understood in the
formulation. According to Shen, Hu Jintao had been looking for
an overarching vision and theory he could use to leave his mark
on foreign policy and, indeed, Party doctrine. Shen said that
Zheng, assisted by Huang Renwei, had developed the "Harmonious
World" concept to provide Hu with what he was looking for.


14. (C) Professor Zhuang noted that President Hu had delivered
his first major speech on "Harmonious World" to the United
Nations on September 15, 2005, marking an important shift in
policy. According to the speech as reported in Xinhua, Hu's
foreign policy vision for achieving "harmony" included:
strengthening multilateralism; encouraging mutually beneficial
cooperation to achieve common prosperity; respecting different
civilizations and encouraging "inclusiveness" so "all
civilizations [can] coexist harmoniously and accommodate each
other"; and reforming the United Nations. (Comment: Although
the term "Harmonious World" had been used previously, Hu's
September 15 speech evidently marked the first time Hu had
spoken specifically and to such a broad audience about the topic
and thus marked the beginning of a shift in policy orientation.
End comment.)


15. (C) Like "Peaceful Rise," however, "Harmonious World" was
not without its critics. Professor Shen said that during the
December 2005 "Annual Review of the International Situation" at
SIIS, "Harmonious World" came under serious attack from the
older foreign policy community, including scholars and former
ambassadors. Again, in April 2006, the theory had been
subjected to "strong internal debate," with some "realists"
arguing that the Party needed to avoid putting "Harmony" above
all else. These "realists" feared that it would send the
message to the United States that China would cave to foreign
pressure on most issues in the interest of preserving
international harmony.

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"Peaceful Rise" Remains Important, if Not Official
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16. (C) Despite the emergence of the "Harmonious World" policy
formulation, the "Peaceful Rise" concept has remained an
important academic formulation that has regained popularity in
recent months. Professor Zhuang attributed the resurgence of
interest in "Peaceful Rise" to the United States's new opinion
of China. Zhuang said that the U.S. "stakeholder" formulation
implied that China was rising in importance and that the United
States had accepted China's rise as a fact. Chinese scholars
were taking U.S. policymakers at their word and felt less
inhibited about using the word "rise." In addition, growing
concern among many in the United States over China's growing
economic influence and energy consumption had led many U.S.
academics to use "rise" to describe China as a threat to
American global economic dominance including access to energy
and other natural resources. In response, more and more Chinese
scholars were reverting to the "Peaceful Rise" formulation to
address these American concerns, arguing that while China was,
indeed, becoming a more important global player, it did not have
belligerent intentions.
JARRETT