ROK'S IRAQ ZAYTUN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: 2007 EXTENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 004156

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: ROK'S IRAQ ZAYTUN TROOP DEPLOYMENT: 2007 EXTENSION
WITHIN REACH


Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The ROK government is likely to forward a
motion to the National Assembly proposing to extend the ROK's
Iraq Zaytun troop deployment until the end of 2007. One
complicating factor is the demand of the ruling Uri Party to
include a pullout plan together with the troop extension
motion. However, given the solid support of the opposition
GNP--and low popularity of the Uri Party--we believe the
proposal without pullout language has a good chance to
succeed. End Summary.

Proposal, then Extension
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2. (C) In order to continue the ROK troop deployment in
Iraq, the government must propose a renewal bill to the
National Assembly Defense Committee through the Ministry of
National Defense. The committee reviews the bill, makes
revisions as necessary, and then submits it to the Assembly
plenary session for a vote. The motion was scheduled to go
to the committee on December 1, but due to internal ROKG-Uri
Party debate, the bill has yet to go to the Assembly. Now,
our National Assembly contacts tell us, the proposal is
likely to be delivered to the Defense Committee on December

6.

Uri Against the Mission
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3. (C) After submitting an open petition signed by 90
Assembly members on November 21 calling for a plan to pull
troops out of Iraq, the Uri Party, in a full party meeting on
November 30, called for the government to include a pullout
plan in the motion for renewal of the 2007 Zaytun troop
deployment. The Uri request was for, "a pullout plan by June
2007, and conclusion of the Zaytun mission by the end of
2007." Although this is the official position of the
135-strong (of 298) Uri assembly members, according to Uri
sources, up to 20 percent of the Uri members are against such
strong language on a pullout plan, and are prepared to vote
accordingly.

GNP Position
--------------


4. (C) Most members of the opposition Grand National Party
(GNP) support the extension of the troop dispatch. They have
argued that such an extension is needed to improve Korea's
international image and also to enhance the ROK-U.S.
alliance. Virtually all of GNP Defense Committee members we
have contacted believe that no pullout plan should be
attached to the renewal motion.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) While many in Korea are against the war in Iraq and
question the involvement of ROK troops, the relative safety
of Irbil, where all of Zaytun is located, has helped.
Developments in the Middle East aside, most Koreans, of
course, grant that the true reason for the troop deployment
is to support for the security goals of the United States.
This is why the truly vocal opposition is limited to the
progressive wing of the Korean political spectrum and the
ruling Uri Party. This wing will continue to press the
National Assembly for formal language on a pullout plan,
likely causing delays. Still, given the low popularity of
the Uri Party--8.8 percent in recent polls--we doubt that
such a position is ultimately sustainable. We believe that
there is a good chance that Uri and GNP leadership can move
the motion through the committee and submit it for a plenary
vote as early as next week, without the pullout plan
language.
VERSHBOW