INR A/S FORT'S MEETING WITH NIS FIRST DEPUTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003440

SIPDIS


SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASS MARKINGS IN PARAS 1, 5 AND 6)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KS KN
SUBJECT: INR A/S FORT'S MEETING WITH NIS FIRST DEPUTY
DIRECTOR KIM MAN-BOK

Classified By: DCM Bill Stanton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a September 27 meeting with visiting INR
Assistant Secretary Randall Fort, National Intelligence
Service (NIS) First Deputy Director Kim Man-bok said NIS has
no evidence that Kim Jong-il would visit China in the near
future. DD Kim said he believed there was consensus among
the DPRK military that weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)
were crucial to their country's survival, so there was no
possibility of any difference of opinion within the
leadership on that question. He asked what measures the U.S.
would take when North Korea was "out of time," referring to a
Secretary Rice interview by the "Wall Street Journal," which

SIPDIS
the ROK media misinterpreted. Hong Yong-hyun, NIS's
International Analysis Bureau Japan analyst who also attended
the meeting, said that his office was focused on whether
Shinzo Abe would pursue constitutional amendments on the use
of the Japanese Defense Forces, because if the Japanese
people's attitude on this matter changed, it would make
Japan's neighbors very "uneasy." In closing, DD Kim sought
the U.S.'s support for Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon's bid for
UN Secretary General (UNSG). END SUMMARY.

POSSIBLE KIM JONG-IL VISIT TO CHINA
--------------


2. (C) DD Kim said that Kim Jong-il and North Korea were
caught off guard by China signing UNSC 1695. As a result,
Kim Jong-il might visit China to patch up relations, but NIS
had no detailed intelligence confirming this. DD Kim noted
that after Kim Jong-il's last China visit, there was an
explosion on a train track, so the DPRK leader might be
concerned about his personal safety.

DPRK MILITARY
--------------


3. (C) John Merrill, INR Northeast Asia Division Chief who
accompanied A/S Fort, asked if the NIS assumed that there was
agreement among the DPRK military on key issues. DD Kim
replied that junior officers could voice their opinions to
senior officers. He noted that the DPRK military believed
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were crucial to their own
survival, so they could not afford a difference of opinion.
He said Kim Jong-il had many former military officers as
advisors, and the attach corps had considerable experience.
DD Kim also remarked that characterizing all the DPRK
military as "hawks" and diplomats as "doves" was
oversimplified.

SECRETARY RICE: DPRK "ALMOST OUT OF TIME"?

SIPDIS
--------------


4. (C) DD Kim cited a "Wall Street Journal" article quoting
the Secretary as saying North Korea was "almost out of time."
(NOTE: The Korean media reported that Secretary Rice had
said North Korea had six weeks to return to the Six Party
Talks (6PT),but there was no such ultimatum in the full text
of the interview. END NOTE.) He asked what measures or
steps the U.S. would take after North Korea ran out of time.
A/S Fort said he could not speculate on any specific steps we
might take. Merrill said that there was a chance that North
Korea would return to the 6PT, citing a positive mention of
6PT by Pyongyang's foreign ministry in late August as well as
recent increase in invitations to high-profile American
visitors, which could be an attempt to lay the groundwork for
returning to 6PT but that might also be a way to end run
diplomatic engagement.

PROSPECT OF JAPAN-ROK RELATIONS
--------------


5. (C) DD Kim said that Japan-ROK relations had soured
because of Koizumi's visits to the Yakusuni Shrine. He noted
an absence of any summits. Nonetheless, there was revived
ROK interest in improving bilateral relations with the Shinzo
Abe era beginning on Sept. 26. A/S Fort said that he was
skeptical Abe would be able to make any constitutional
amendments on the use of the Japanese Defense Forces,
pointing to the Japanese people's conservatism when it came
to constitutional changes. He said he doubted there was
sufficient political will at this time to make any
amendments. A/S Fort described the vehement feelings
Japanese citizens harbored toward North Korea because of the
abductions. If North Korea were willing to resolve the
abduction issue, he noted, it would be a huge coup for Abe
and would yield North Korea many benefits.


6. (C) Hong Yong-hyun, NIS's International Analysis Bureau
Japan analyst, clarified that the focus of NIS analysts was
on Abe's "pursuit" of constitutional amendments--not whether
the constitution was actually amended or not, which NIS did
not foresee happening. In the process of Abe pursuing
constitutional amendments, he explained, the Japanese
people's pacifist attitudes could change, especially toward
Article 9 of the constitution that deals with war. He noted
that NIS recently detected a slight increase in the Japanese
people's positive attitude toward constitutional amendments,
which made Japan's neighbors "uneasy." If Abe pursued
constitutional amendments, this would increase mistrust among
Japan's neighbors.

DD KIM REQUESTS SUPPORT FOR FM BAN'S BID FOR UNSG
-------------- --------------


7. (C) DD Kim ended the meeting by remarking that Foreign
Minister Ban Ki-moon had been "blessed with favorable
results" in the first UN Secretary General straw polls.
(NOTE: This meeting took place one and a half weeks before FM
Ban was formally nominated as UNSG. END NOTE.) "Given the
ROK's standing in the global community," he said, "I hope you
will consider his candidacy favorably." A/S Fort promised to
share this message with his colleagues in the Department.


8. (U) This cable was cleared by A/S Fort.
VERSHBOW