ICG ON NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES: CAT AND MOUSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SEOUL 003158

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KN KS PREF
SUBJECT: ICG ON NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES: CAT AND MOUSE
EXISTENCE


UNCLASSIFIED

SIPDIS
PROG 09/13/2006
A/DCM:JYUN
POL:BMCFEETERS
POL

AMEMBASSY SEOUL
SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY TOKYO
AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
ASEAN COLLECTIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2016
TAGS: KN KS PREF
SUBJECT: ICG ON NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES: CAT AND MOUSE EXISTENCE

SUMMARY
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1. (U) International Crisis Group's (ICG) Northeast Asia
Project Director Peter Beck said that North Korean refugees,
predominantly in China but increasingly going to Southeast
Asia, need from USD 1,000 to 10,000 to get out of North Korea
and live a very precarious "cat and mouse" existence after
they do, fearing that they will be caught and sent back to
North Korea. Beck said his group's research, starting in
early 2006, did not point to a strong desire among refugees
to go the United States, but that information about the North
Korea Human Rights Act was still being disseminated. ICG's
"North Korea Refugees" report should be published by
mid-October. End Summary.

NO RELIABLE NUMBERS
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2. (U) ICG's Peter Beck led off his presentation to about 100
mostly expatriates at a Royal Asiatic Sociey gathering on
September 12 by saying that even after nine months of
intensive research, ICG had no firm handle on the number of
North Korean refugees. Beck said his sense was that about
half of the refugees were unintended: they had gone to China
to visit family, find food, or work temporarily. But they
had then grown fearful about going back to the DPRK and
perhaps being apprehended -- which Beck said could lead to no
punishment, years of imprisonment in a detention facility
such as Yodok, or even execution.


3. (U) The other half of the refugees left the DPRK intending
to go to the ROK or a third country. While ICG did not know
how many refugees there were, it was clearer how much they
paid: between USD 1,000 and 10,000 to escape. The average,
about USD 2,000, was an "unimaginable sum" for most North
Koreans, few of whom could pay to evade internal travel
restrictions within North Korea. Of those who had the needed
funds, most crossed to China, where border guards on both
sides were notorious for accepting bribes. One refugee, who
wanted to return to North Korea temporarily to see family,
brought two cases of whisky and handed out bottles at each
checkpoint on the way in and back out. The border with
Russia was easy to cross but refugees found Russia
inhospitable so they avoided it. Increasing numbers of
refugees were finding their way to Southeast Asia, especially
Thailand. Recent arrests there would spook some refugees,
but amounted to local officials responding to complaints
rather than a shift in Thailand's policy.


4. (U) Beck described, leaving out any details, what he
called a sophisticated underground railroad leading from
China to South Korea or elsewhere. Brokers who run the
system range from sincere missionaries to businessmen making
money to human traffickers.


5. (U) Beck estimated that about 70 percent of the refugees
were women, for reasons not fully understood. All refugees
lived a "cat and mouse" existence, seeking to avoid border
guards, police, or even other people who could betray them
with one phone call. But women faced the additional hazard
of possibly being trafficked into prostitution or sold as

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"picture brides." The flipside was that some women
intentionally relied on prostitution to support themselves.
Many had also married Chinese men, which Beck claimed would
lead to complicated issues for the ROK, since these refugees
would want to bring their husbands and sometimes children to
South Korea with them.

6. (U) While noting that the ICG report covers the refugees'
situation outside of the ROK, Beck said that there were
reasons to believe that more and more refugees would start
trying to come to South Korea, perhaps overwhelming the
system that he said is now at capacity with about 2,000
refugees expected to be accepted this year. The report will
argue that the biggest factor drawing refugees to South Korea
is that other family members have done so. That implies that
each contingent of refugees reaching South Korea will have a
gravitational pull attracting even more members of extended
families. Some communication back to North Korea was
possible either through brokers, or through Chinese
cellphones used near the Northern border.


7. (U) Asked whether China feared a vast increase in the
number of refugees coming from North Korea, Beck said no,
because the DPRK population centers are in the south, and
relatively few North Koreans have the means to go north.
Asked why the DPRK does not control the borders to prevent
flight, Beck said that the DPRK lacked the resources to
effectively control the border with China. He recounted
crossing the Yalu river by boat with a guide to talk to North
Korean border guards, who suggested that if he threw a bit of
money onto the shore, he could wander into North Korea and
talk to people; Beck refused on security grounds.


8. (U) Asked about the impact of the North Korea Human Rights
Act, Beck said that his group's research starting in early
2006 did not find refugees mentioning the Act, and that few
mentioned wanting to go to the United States. He suggested
that information about the Act was still being disseminated
into refugee networks.
STANTON