PARTY REALIGNMENT - POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002913

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: PARTY REALIGNMENT - POSSIBLE SCENARIOS


Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: With still sixteen months to go, the
December 2007 Presidential elections already dominates
political discussion in Seoul. Lawmakers are looking at how
their actions in the fall Assembly session will affect the
elections and the press is focusing more and more on possible
candidates. These moves will likely culminate in a political
realignment, or at least an excuse for various factions in
the National Assembly to switch the party line-up. Most
likely realignment involves the ruling Uri Party, because it
must begin to disassociate itself from the unpopular
President. Less likely is a realignment involving the
opposition GNP, unless one of its disappointed Presidential
candidates decides to run away and form a new party. END
SUMMARY

HISTORY
--------------


2. (C) Neither the ruling Uri Party nor the main leading
opposition Grand National Party (GNP) have a long history,
and party realignment is a regular fixture on the Korean
political landscape. In 1995 Kim Dae-jung (DJ) split the
opposition Democratic Party by forming the National Congress
for New Politics changed to the Millenium Democratic Party in

2000. The Uri Party split away from the Millenium Democratic
Party in late 2003 spurred by a left-leaning faction led by
such leaders as Chong Dong-yong. Subsequently, MDP dropped
"M" and became the Democratic Party. On the GNP side, the
party originated from the Democratic Liberal Party formed in
1990, a merger of the Democratic Justice Party (then
President Roh Tae-woo's party),Reunification Democratic
Party (Chaired at the time by former President Kim
Young-sam),and the New Democratic Party (Chaired at the time
by Kim Jong-pil (JP)). After JP left the party and Roh was
imprisoned, the party was renamed the New Korea Party, and
subsequently changed its n
ame to GNP.

SCENARIOS
--------------


3. (C) According to leading lawmakers from all parties,
there will be a party shake up at the start of 2007. The
scenarios from most likely to least likely are as follows:
first, the parties will stay as they are, with the Uri Party
and the Democratic Party (DP) merging; second, the Uri Party
will dissolve and some members will split to the GNP and the
Democratic Party leaving a core of roughly 80 lawmakers in a
new progressive party; third, the GNP will split with one
group formed around former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak; and
last, the parties will stay as they are and Park Geun-hye and
Lee Myung-bak will form a coalition similar to the Kim
Dae-jung-Kim Jong-pil alliance of 1997 based on the promise
that the loser of the GNP primary will become the PM under a
cabinet system.

URI AND DP MERGE
--------------


4. (C) Reform minded Uri lawmaker Choi Jae-chon said
everyone agrees that the Uri Party and the Democratic Party
(DP) must merge in order to have a chance in the 2007
elections. While Chung Dong-yong and his close allies in the
Uri Party who led the split in 2003 may not be welcomed by
the DP, the reality that the two progressive parties must
merge in order to face off against the ever stronger main
opposition, the Grand National Party (GNP),makes this the
most likely scenario for party realignment. Most pundits
agree that the realignment will occur in early 2007. Uri
Party Assemblyman and former Rice University professor Chae
Su-chan said that President Roh would not accept any
coalition that involved the DP since that would signal a
regression to politics based on regionalism. However, most
agree that an Uri-DP merger is quite likely.

URI DISSOLVES
--------------


5. (C) Oddly enough, the terms of the Uri-DP merger will
likely be drawn by the DP, which has less than 10 seats in
the National Assembly compared to Uri's 142. This is because
the DP has strong regional support in Jeolla province while
Uri's popularity, tied to President Roh, is in a freefall.
Because it will be difficult for some in the Uri Party to
merge with the DP, the Uri Party may dissolve, with a core
group of roughly 40-80 members forming a new reform minded
party and the remaining members going to either the DP or the
GNP. This scenario would be beneficial for the GNP as the
result would likely be two presidential candidates that could
split the progressive vote. If the progressive side split
this way, most observers agree it would encourage Lee
Myung-bak to split from the GNP. The result could be four
main candidates for president.

LEE SPLITS FROM GNP TO FORM NEW PARTY
--------------


6. (C) Political reporter at the Joongang Ilbo, Chun Youn-gi
said that the key for the GNP is for Park Geun-hye and Lee
Myung-bak to both run for the GNP's candidacy. He said that
if this happens, the GNP is assured a victory.
Interestingly, Uri Party policy advisor and former Ambassador
to Russia Chong Tae-ik said that Chun had the correct
analysis of the presidential race. The concern among the GNP
is that if Lee decides he can not win the GNP candidacy, he
may leave the GNP to form a new party. He recently went to
Busan to announce his plan to connect Seoul and Busan by a
canal system if he becomes President. Lee rightly believes
he has higher public popularity than Park and lower
popularity among party delegates. The current GNP primary
system weighs public support at 50% and party support at 50%
so this is more favorable to Park than the open primary
system that Lee is pushing for and the Uri Party has
committed to.

THE NEW DJP ALLIANCE
--------------


7. (C) Another possible GNP scenario is that Park and Lee
could form an alliance similar to Kim Dae-jung (DJ) and Kim
Jong-pil's (JP) 1997 alliance. Then, JP joined DJ with the
understanding that if DJ won, he would change the
Constitution to a Cabinet system, leaving the PM (JP) almost
as powerful as the President. Under this scenario, according
to GNP lawmaker Kim Byoung-ho, Park would be the President
and the visionary, while Lee would be the PM and responsible
for pushing economic development.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) A near certainty is political realignment. Whether
small moves (Uri merges with DP) or big (GNP splits, Uri
dissolves) the consensus is this will happen in early 2007.
Until then, the two parties and the various candidates will
fight things out through proxy wars in the press and in the
National Assembly. This posturing will likely disrupt the
fall regular session of the National Assembly and color all
things political.
STANTON