DPRK CANCELS ARIRANG FESTIVAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002586

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015
TAGS: PREL KS KN
SUBJECT: DPRK CANCELS ARIRANG FESTIVAL

REF: A. SEOUL 2460


B. SEOUL 2533

C. SECTO 00002

Classified By: CDA Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) One of Northeast Asia's largest synchronized
gymnastics and flashcard extravaganzas has been postponed
until next spring. While the DPRK's stated reason for the
postponement of the "Arirang Festival" was flooding following
unusually heavy monsoon rains, some suspect the true
motivation was to control rumors about the failed Taepodong-2
launching and UNSCR 1695. Another factor was the cold
response the Festival would have elicited in the wake of the
missile launches. The cancellation will avoid the
awkwardness of seeing thousands of South Koreans
participating in a pro-North Korea festival at a time when
the ROKG is trying to look firm in its response to the DPRK's
missile launches. END SUMMARY.

THE ARIRANG FESTIVAL
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2. (SBU) The DPRK organized the first Arirang Festival in
June 2002 to commemorate the 90th birthday of DPRK founder
Kim Il-sung. The Festival featured 100,000 gymnasts and
flashcard-flippers who danced and flipped in an hour-long
program devoted to Kim's memory and legacy. The DPRK
continued the festival from August to October in 2002 to
commemorate the anniversaries of Korean Liberation and the
founding of the Korea Worker's Party. Since 2002, the
Festival has been held every August.


3. (SBU) In 2005, approximately 7,300 South Koreans attended
the festival. The five-member ROK delegation to the 16th
Inter-Korean Ministerial Talks, including then-Unification
Minister Chung Dong-young attended, as did eight National
Assembly members representing the Uri, GNP and Democratic
Labor Parties. Hundreds of Americans also attended,
including New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and former CBS
anchorman Dan Rather. Official delegations from China,
Russia and Cuba were there as well. According to press
reports, the DPRK may have earned over 6 million USD from
travel and tourism associated with the event.


WHAT MISSILES?
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4. (C) The 2006 Arirang Festival was planned for August 14
to 16. In the weeks following the July 5 missile launches,
we suggested to our ROKG contacts that it might not be
appropriate to send an official delegation to the Festival
following the DPRK's provocative actions. While ROKG
representatives told us that they had not yet determined
whether to send an official delegation, they also said that
they could not prevent private citizens from attending.
Meanwhile, the "South Korea Council for Implementation of the
June 15 Joint Declaration," a civic group that was
facilitating South Korean participation in the event,
announced on July 16 that 16,200 civilians would visit North
Korea to take part in the festival. Though the South Korea
Council later reduced their estimate of visitors to 7,00 due
to rising tensions on the Peninsula, another organizing
group, the "Movement for One Corea(sic)," told us on August 1
that reservations did not seem to be affected by the missile
launches.

SHOW POSTPONED UNTIL SPRING
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5. (SBU) Three major storms struck the Korean Peninsula in
July and flooding was a problem in both South and North Korea
(Ref B). International relief organizations said that the
DPRK death toll exceeded 120 persons. According to a UN
analysis, 31,000 houses were destroyed and 17,000 families
were made homeless. Amidst such reports, the DPRK's UN
Ambassador announced that because of flood damage, the DPRK
would cancel the performance this year and reschedule for
spring 2007. Prof. Jun Bong-geun, a North Korea specialist
at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security,
was not surprised. As he explained to poloff on August 1,
North Korea has lost control of natural disasters. As a
result, "when it rains, it floods. When it doesn't rain,
there's a drought." Park said that it would take years for
the DPRK, which lacks sufficient heavy machinery and
earth-moving equipment, to recover from this disaster.


6. (C) In a July 31 conversation with the Charge, however,
Secretary to the President for National Security Strategy

SIPDIS
Park Sun-won suggested that the flooding may not have been
the only reason. He noted that last year's festival took
place during heavy downpours which seemed to have little
impact on the performance. Park speculated that Kim Jong-il
might be concerned about having so many North Koreans
gathered in one place, where rumors regarding the Taepodong-2
missile launch or UNSCR 1695 could easily spread. Kim
Jong-il did not want the whole country to know that the
missile launch failed and that the entire international
community is now against North Korea, Park reasoned.

COMMENT
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7. (C) With the amount of revenue that the DPRK stood to
gain from the Arirang Festival, postponing this event could
not have been a decision Kim Jong-il made lightly. Whatever
his true motivation, we think that many in the ROKG may be
privately relieved at the outcome. At a time when some ROKG
officials are troubled that the ROK is perceived as being
"soft" on North Korea (Ref C),it would have been awkward to
have thousands of South Koreans participate in an event
dedicated to the glory and legacy of Kim Il-sung.
YUN