JULY 26 BY-ELECTIONS PREVIEW: FOUR MORE NA SEATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002493

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2011
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: JULY 26 BY-ELECTIONS PREVIEW: FOUR MORE NA SEATS
FOR THE GNP?


Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: There will be a by-election on July 26 for
four National Assembly seats but even Uri Party lawmakers
concede there is little chance for the ruling Uri Party to
win even one seat. Two of the vacant seats are in Seoul, one
in Masan, Gyeongsang Province, and one in Bucheon, Gyeonggi
Province, just west of Seoul. The expected result reflects
the continued strong public sentiment against President Roh.
END SUMMARY


2. (C) The Songbuk-gu district in Seoul is the only district
where the Grand National Party has even a small chance of
losing out to the Democratic Party (DP). Former Chairman of
the minor opposition party Cho Soon-hyoung is seen as having
a chance, but perhaps only to make it close. In the approval
rating by party, the Uri party is in a close third, trailing
right behind the Democratic Party at 14.8 percent. However,
according to results from polling organization The People,
the support rate for the GNP is close to 50 percent.


3. (SBU) In Songpa-gu, the GNP nominated former lawmaker
Maeng Hyung-kyu to run. This move was controversial, since
the race is for the seat he vacated in early 2006 to run for
mayor of Seoul. In addition to this seemingly strange
nomination, the GNP incurred more criticism when they first
put former lawmaker Chung In-bong forward as their candidate.
Chung lost his seat in 2000 when he violated the election
laws by providing prostitutes and alcohol to reporters.
Despite the controversial nomination, latest The People polls
indicate that Maeng leads with 60 percent support.


4. (SBU) In Bucheon, between Seoul and Incheon, Kim Man-soo,
a former Blue House spokesperson from the Uri Party and Cha
Myung-jin from the GNP are the two candidates. Kim left the
Blue House last April to prepare his run for the seat left
vacant by Gyeonggi Province governor-elect Kim Moon-soo.
Although not as likely as in Songbuk-gu, a close race cannot
be ruled out. Polls taken July 16-17 indicate that GNP
candidate Cha leads at 43 percent; however, 15 percent of
respondents indicated they were undecided.


5. (SBU) In Masan, of South Gyeongsang Province, the GNP
candidate, Lee Ju-Young, a former vice-governor, is in the
lead despite circulating accusations of a rigged election by
the former GNP incumbent. The Uri Party candidate, Kim
Sung-jin, a former Blue House public administrator, has
focused his campaign on emphasizing the links between his
opponent Lee Ju-Young and the allegedly corrupt GNP
predecessor.


6. (C) According to a July 16-17 Automated Response System
telephone poll conducted by the polling investigative
organization, in all the districts up for grabs, the
constituents' support the GNP over any other party by at
least a 30 percent margin. According to Uri Party lawmaker
Choi Jae-cheon, the Uri Party acknowledges that it has
already conceded the four seats in the upcoming election. He
noted that with the current approval ratings of the president
and the Uri Party, there is little hope for a competitive
race for any of the four seats.


7. (C) The expected victory will likely boost the rising
popularity and confidence of the GNP, although the impact
will not be significant. The sizeable percentage of
undecided and non-affiliated voters (around 15-20 percent)
reflect that it is not that there is strong public support
for the GNP but that there is a lack of support for the Uri
Party and political parties in general. The current break
down of seats within the Assemby, excluding the four seats up
for election, are as follows: 142 seats for the Uri Party;
123 seats for the GNP; 30 seats for all other parties. Even
with the victory, the GNP will not obtain majority control of
the National Assembly. Observers lament the GNP has yet to
come up with any strong platform to elicit true support from
voters.
VERSHBOW