KORUS FTA: A LOOK AT KOREAN PUBLIC OPINION

UNCLAS SEOUL 001908

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD SOCI PGOV KS
SUBJECT: KORUS FTA: A LOOK AT KOREAN PUBLIC OPINION

SUMMARY
--------------


1. Generally speaking, the Korean public remains noticeably
supportive of the conclusion of a U.S.-Korea Free Trade
Agreement despite steady public protests and often-critical
media coverage. The proportion of citizens who feel
strongly about the initiative is relatively small, however,
so there is still potential for public opinion to sway in
one direction or the other depending on the outcome of the
negotiations. Korea's "silent majority" of FTA sympathizers
is most supportive about changes to Korea's services market,
and is agreeable to opening wider to imported manufactured
goods. The public is most cautious about the impact of the
FTA on the agricultural sector. End Summary.

WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN GENERAL PUBLIC
--------------


2. As one might expect, different polls show different
results concerning Korean public opinion toward the KORUS
FTA. Korean public opinion polls still often include
leading questions, or questions asked in a context that
provides information pointing toward a particular point of
view. Even so, it is clear that even after three months of
intense media coverage and a steady drumbeat of public
demonstrations opposing the FTA, the Korean public remains
largely supportive of the endeavor. Even polls commissioned
by anti-FTA organizations such as Hankyoreh Shinmun show
majority support.

Recent Poll Results
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(percent) Favor Oppose Undecided
-------------- -------------- --------------
June 3 Media Research 58.1 29.2 12.7
June 3 KBS 40.0 23.0 37.0
May 13 Hankyoreh 58.1 41.9 0.0
April 25 KSOI 39.5 55.2 5.3


3. The most recent truly reliable survey was conducted by
Media Research on behalf of the Hankook Ilbo newspaper,
which tends to take a skeptical view toward the benefits of
foreign trade. That survey of 1,000 adults, conducted on
June 3, found 7.1 percent of the Korean public to be "very
supportive, 51 percent "tending to support," 22.5 percent
"tending to oppose," and 6.7 percent "very negative." Based
on these results, it is apparent that a large group of
Korean citizenry may not have firmly fixed opinions about
the free trade agreement. The implications of this fact are
far-reaching: based on events and negotiating outcomes, it
may be possible for large cohorts of Korean citizens to
change their minds about the KORUS FTA.


4. Following are the highlights of some other opinion polls,
as reported in the press.

-- Korea Broadcasting Service (June 3): According to KBS'
nationwide survey of 1,000 adults, 39 percent supported the
FTA while 22 percent objected to the trade deal. However,
as much as 36 percent were found to neither support nor
oppose. As reasons to approve the trade pact, 45 percent of
the respondents said the FTA would enhance the
competitiveness of domestic industries, and 31 percent
answered that it would help reinvigorate the economy. Among
the opponents, 43 percent said that if the FTA is concluded,
the ROK economy could be subordinated to the U.S. influence,
and 25 percent responded that Seoul is pushing for the FTA
talks in great haste. Asked about the sectors that should
be opened, 48 percent picked social services, 37 percent
agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries, and 13 percent
manufacturing industries. On the contrary, 78 percent and
13 percent chose agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries,
and social services, respectively, as the sectors that
should stay closed.

-- Hankyoreh Shinmun (May 13): The newspaper and the Korean
Social Science Data Center asked questions about the FTA as
part of its biennial "Survey of Koreans' Ideological
Inclinations." Regarding the KORUS FTA, 58.1 percent of
Koreans supported the pact while 41.9 percent expressed
objections. 66.7 percent of people in agricultural,
forestry and fisheries sectors opposed the trade accord, as
opposed to 67.3 percent of self-employed persons who
supported the pact.

-- JoongAng Ilbo (April 20): A public poll conducted by
JoongAng Ilbo, the East Asia Institute and Hankook Research
reported found that more than 60 percent of the public
supports a free trade agreement with the United States. The
consortium has yet to release detailed results, however.

-- Korea Society Opinion Institute (April 25): The KSOI
conducted a nationwide survey of about 700 people. In the
survey, 72 percent of respondents said that they would
support the Korea opening up its medical and educational
markets, despite strong opposition from civic groups. Many
respondents also approved of the liberalization of law and
accounting (65 percent) and other services sectors (62
percent). However, those polled were split over the opening-
up of the film industry, with 45 percent in favor and 43
percent against it. As to the liberalization of the
agriculture and livestock industry, 67 percent was opposed
to the opening with a mere 29 percent in favor -- the only
category where objectors outnumbered supporters.


5. Overall, the KSOI study found that 55.2 percent of the
citizenry was opposed to the KORUS FTA, while 39.5 percent
supported the trade pact. As to why respondents tended to
support each category for market opening but opposed the FTA
in general, KSOI research fellow Han Ki-young concluded, "A
large number of the respondents seem to identify agriculture
market opening with the FTA."

COHORT ANALYSIS
--------------


6. The KSOI study was particularly useful because it has
released its results broken down by survey cohort. By
stratum, KSOI found that people in their 30's and younger,
highly educated and with high-paying white-collar jobs were
the most likely to favor the FTA. Meanwhile, those in their
50's and older, and those less-educated with lower-paying
jobs, were more likely to be opposed to the trade deal.


7. The cohort analysis can be taken further, for example to
look at two sectors of particular importance to the KORUS
FTA -- agriculture and automobiles.


8. In the case of the agricultural market, there is a clear
political orientation to the stance of members of the
public. Members of the more urban ruling Uri Party and the
conservative Grand National Party are most likely to support
agricultural market opening, while supporters of the Jeolla-
based Democratic Party and the left-wing Democratic Labor
Party are firmly opposed. Interestingly, however, there is
little divergence in opinion by educational attainment, with
fairly strong opposition to liberalization among all
cohorts:

What Is Your Opinion on Opening the Agricultural Market?
-------------- --------------
(percent) Favor Oppose Undecided
-------------- -------------- --------------
Uri Party 34.7 62.4 2.9
Grand National Party 32.6 62.8 4.6
Democratic Party 21.6 74.3 4.1
Democratic Labor Party 12.9 87.1 0.0
Independent 28.7 66.4 4.9

University or Higher 30.7 67.1 2.2
High School 27.0 70.0 3.0
Middle School or Below 29.4 58.2 12.4


9. Conversely, concerning automotive market opening, there
appears to be less of a political tinge to public opinion,
based on party affiliation. There is, however, a clear
class-based pattern of Korea's well-educated being the most
favorably disposed toward the idea of importing more cars.
Blue collar citizens with less educational attainment are
less supportive of the idea of having more imported
automobiles on Korea's streets. The cause could be concern
about lost employment, or jealousy over not being able to
afford "expensive" imported cars:

What Is Your Opinion on Opening the Automobile Market?
-------------- --------------
(percent) Favor Oppose Undecided
-------------- -------------- --------------
Uri Party 63.2 32.5 4.3
Grand National Party 65.5 28.3 6.2
Democratic Party 49.2 44.1 6.7
Democratic Labor Party 64.8 33.6 1.6
Independent 53.1 35.5 11.4

University or Higher 69.8 26.5 3.7
High School 53.7 39.3 7.0
Middle School or Below 45.9 37.3 16.8

VERSHBOW