PRESS BULLETIN - JUNE 5, 2006

UNCLAS SEOUL 001855


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SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - JUNE 5, 2006

EDITORIALS/OPINIONS

1. How Far Will Seoul Be Swayed By Pyongyang and
Washington? (Dong-a Ilbo)

2. A Collapse is Also an Option at the FTA Talks
(Hankyoreh Shinmun)

FEATURES

3. Joint Chiefs of Staffs Report: "ROK-U.S. Combined Forces
Command to Be Dissolved in 2012" (Chosun Ilbo)

4. If U.S. Pressure on North Korea Increases, Pyongynag
Could Test Fire Missile (Dong-a Ilbo)

5. Rumsfeld to North: Follow Libya (JoongAng Ilbo)

6. Seoul Does Not Send Military Force to Khaan Quest
(JoongAng Ilbo)

7. Korea, U.S. Mulling Halfway House for Wartime Control
(Digital Chosun)

8. Four Out of Ten South Koreans Support ROK-U.S. FTA (KBS)

9. Korean Trade Protesters Arrive in U.S. (Dong-a Ilbo)

TOP HEADLINES

Chosun Ilbo
ROK-US COMBINED FORCES COMMAND TO BE DISBANDED IN 2012

JoongAng Ilbo
RULING URI PARTY ANGERED BY PRESIDENT ROH'S ELECTION-RELATED
REMARKS; REBUKING HIS ECONOMIC POLICY FAILURE AND MULLING A
BREAK-UP WITH HIM

Dong-a Ilbo
PRESIDENT HOPEFUL GOH KUN: "I WILL NOT JOIN HANDS WITH
EXISTING PARTIES"

Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
RULING URI PARTY RAPIDLY UNRAVELS IN POST-ELECTION SHOCK

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS

1 According to a military source on June 3, the ROK has
decided to send 5 observers, not military troops, to the
2006 "Khaan Quest" exercise, a multilateral peace-keeping
training, to be held in Mongolia in coming August, as was
suggested at the 8th ROK-U.S. Security Policy Initiative
in Hawaii on May 25. (JoongAng)
2 The ROK military is reportedly looking for a strategic
timeframe to dismantle the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces
Command headquarters in 2012, and, accordingly, the
return of wartime control of its military from the U.S.
is expected to come in no later than 2011, according to
an ROK military official who cited a Joint Chiefs of
Staff document on June 4. (Chosun)
3 With the first round of the ROK-U.S. FTA talks scheduled
from June 5 - 9, on June 3, about 160 members of a
government negotiation team and also an anti-negotiation
protest expedition arrived in Washington D.C. together.
(Dong-a, Seoul, Segye, KBS, MBC, SBS, OhmyNews, Preesian,
TongilNews)
4 According to a poll commissioned by the Chosun Ilbo to
the Korea Gallop on June 3, a total of 84.6% out of 1022
Koreans held President Roh responsible for the loss of
ruling Uri Party with 49.3% seeing President Roh greatly
responsible and 35.3% saying he is responsible to some
extent. (Chosun)
5 In a meeting between ROK Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung
and his U.S. counterpart on the sideline of the fifth
Asia Security Conference on June 3, the two sides agreed
to take step-by-step measures for the ROK to retrieve
wartime control of its armed forces from the U.S.
(Chosun, Hankook, Seoul, Segye, KBS, MBc, SBS,
TongilNews)

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1 U.S. defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, urged North
Korea to follow the "Libyan example" in a speech on
Saturday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum
in Singapore. The future of the Pacific Rim, said Mr.
Rumsfeld, will depend on the path North Korea takes _
whether it continues to repress its people and threaten
its neighbors, or follows Libya's example that "leads
back to membership in the community of nations."

(JoongAng, MBC)
2 In a sign of the USG facing a growing pressure from
Congress, Inside US Trade, a trade magazine, reported on
June 2 that ranking House representatives from the U.S.
Democratic Party had sent a letter to President Bush on
May 26 "calling for an unexceptional removal of trade
barriers on ROK auto market, banking, insurance,
medicine, and communications, or the USG would face a
fierce resistance from the Congress against the ROK-U.S.
FTA." (Hankyoreh, MBC)
3 North Korea's submarine warfare capacity has increased
dramatically and the number of its troops under arms has
been reduced, according to a report called "Military
Balance 2006" by the International Institute for
Strategic Studies based in Britain. (JoongAng, Chosun)
4 A report titled "Suggestions for ROK-U.S. FTA" released
by the U.S. Congressional Research Service prior to the
first round of FTA talks predicted that the trade talks
could flounder in the face of the unification of anti-
American forces in the ROK and also face difficulty
getting ratified at the ROK parliament as President Roh
would go through a lame duck phase. (Segye)


EDITORIALS/OPINIONS


1. How Far Will Seoul Be Swayed By Pyongyang and
Washington?
(Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 30)

By Koh Yu-hwan, Professor of North Korean Studies at Dongkuk
University

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)
announced on June 1 that the LWR project in Shinpo, South
Hankyung Province, came to an end. The reason why the 1994
Geneva Agreed Framework ended in failure was that North
Korea tried to grasp at too much. After getting what it
wanted by using a freeze on nuclear development as a
bargaining chip, Pyongyang took out another bargaining card
of missile launch and pushed for its nuclear program based
upon highly enriched uranium, which brought all efforts back
to the starting point. A change in U.S. policy towards the
North also played its role. During the Clinton
administration, there was a point of convergence between
Washington's strategy to involve itself in Pyongyang and
North Korea's survival strategy. However, after George W.
Bush was inaugurated, the U.S. global strategy began
conflicting with Pyongyang's survival strategy, which has
been prolonging discords between the two nations. The ROKG
is also to blame. Although Seoul was completely ignored
when the Geneva Agreed Framework was adopted, it agreed to
share 70% of the costs of constructing light-water nuclear
reactors in North Korea. The ROKG should reflect whether or
not it has yielded to U.S. demand without any say over the
project.

The "mutual" framework of the Geneva Agreed Framework has
now been expanded into the "multilateral" framework of the
Six-Party Talks. Without any high-ranking talks between the
North and the U.S., no progress willt be made in resolving
the North Korean nuclear issue. In order to resume the
stalled nuclear talks, it is desirable for a U.S. chief
negotiator to the Six-Party Talks to accept an invitation by
the North and pay a visit to Pyongyang.



2. A Collapse is Also an Option at the FTA Talks
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 5, 2006, Page 27)

Amid concerns, the first round of the ROK-U.S. FTA talks
will open today in Washington. The outcome of the talks, if
things go awry, could potentially further divide the country
by widening the rift between different interests.
Therefore, the negotiation delegates must feel a tremendous
sense of responsibility. If they continue to be submissive
to the U.S. side as they were when meeting a series of U.S.
demands including a cut in screen quota even before sitting
down at the table, they would face disastrous consequences.

An FTA statement drafted by the U.S. has caused some

optimists to flinch while adding fresh concerns to those who
are already deeply-concerned. U.S. demands are not merely
restricted to the financial sector where the U.S. called for
some new services to be introduced, but wide-ranging in
their scope and topic encompassing taxation, legislation and
the public sector. The U.S. also seeks to set aside
agriculture and textile and pay special attention to the
segments. As for the drugs, even some in the ROKG are
worried that accepting U.S. demands will shake a key pricing
vehicle of the national health insurance. All in all, the
U.S. draft statement on FTA contains a wide range of tough
demands, a lot tougher than we have anticipated.

The remark by ROK chief FTA negotiator Kim Jong-hun "We will
do our best to make sure that the first round of the talks
will produce a balanced outcome acceptable to both sides"
remains largely untrustworthy. It is not because we are
blindly concerned but because the ROKG has failed to win the
trust of the ROK people. With the conclusion of the deal
upheld as the one and only goal of the talks, the ROKG has
already given up substantial leverage to put itself on an
equal footing with the U.S.

Numbers do not help at this point, but, instead, an argument
made by a senior economist that a small country's attempt to
integrate with the world's most powerful country could wind
up being suicidal and risky and seriously damage the
country's global standing resonates better with us. A free
trade accord with the U.S. is not the only path lying ahead
of us, nor is it the path we should take in such a hurried
manner. The ROK must clearly convey its positions to the
U.S., and then it should show a firm stance that if these
demands encounter a dead end it will walk away. If the U.S.
refuses to accept our views, we can slow down our pace.
First impressions are important more than anything else,
because if you appear weak the other side will try to push
you around. Also some back-up plans are needed to minimize
the after-shock in case the talks collapse.


FEATURES


3. Joint Chiefs of Staffs Report: "ROK-U.S. Combined Forces
Command to Be Dissolved in 2012"
(Chosun Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Front Page)

By Reporter Jang Il-hyun

The ROK military was found to be looking for a strategic
timeframe to dismantle the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command
(CFC) in 2012, and the return of wartime control of its
armed forces from the U.S. is expected to happen no later
than 2011. The ROK-U.S. alliance which was bound over the
course of bloodshed during the 1950 Korean War will
supposedly undergo a seismic change in its structure and
format.

An ROK military source said on June 4, "A key document of
the Joint Chiefs of Staffs on military strategies clarly
points to 2012 as the time when the ROK-U.S. CFC will be
disbanded and plans to restructure the ROK military will
proceed accordingly."

The document the source refers to is a first-class military
report that is upgraded every three years entitled "Joint
Military Strategy (JMS)." All the operations and
organizations of the ROK military are drawn on this JMS
report and so are mid-term defense plans. The part about
"the dissolution of the bilateral CFC" is reportedly
included in the "Future Direction of the ROK Military
Structure".

"The year 2012 is the time when the concept of "cooperative
and independent defense" relentlessly pushed by President
Roh will be complete and the dismantlement of the ROK-U.S.
CFC following the return of the wartime control will put the
finishing touches on the plan," said the source.

What kind of form the ROK-U.S. military alliance will take
in wake of the removal of the CFC remains unclear. Some
possible ideas include: a) the ROK and the U.S. will likely

join the further strengthened UN Command and b) a more
cooperative system will be introduced where the armed forces
of both countries support and complement each other's
combatant capabilities while independently keeping their own
operational and command rights.

Most military experts foresee that the ROK military's
regaining its wartime control will probably come ahead of
the breakup of the ROK-U.S. CFC. ROK Defense Minister Yoon
Kwang-ung repeatedly said, "Making preparations for the
return will take about five years at the least." Another
military source said, "Preparing for the regain is in its
final stage, so, only if the ROK and the U.S. reach an
agreement on this, this could happen right away. Some
military officials put the timeline for the return around
2011-2012.



4. If U.S. Pressure on North Korea Increases, Pyongynag
Could Test Fire Missile
(Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2)

By Reporter Lee Myung-gun and Washington Correspondent Kim
Seung-ryun

It was learned on June 2 that the ROKG understood if U.S.
pressure on North Korea builds up, Pyongyang could test-fire
Taepo dong-1 or 2 missiles.

This judgment was reportedly based upon photographs of
Musudan-ri, Hwadae county in North Hankyung Province (former
Daepodong) taken by a U.S. intelligence satellite.

In its analysis of the statement from North Korea that "If
the U.S. steps up its pressure, we cannot but take a highly
stringent action," Seoul said the action meant missile
firing.

Based on this analysis, the ROKG delivered its position to
the U.S. on June 1 that Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill
needed to visit North Korea in an attempt to block Pyongyang
from launching a missile and bring it back to the Six-Party
Talks.

The Taepo dong-2 missile has a range of 4,300-6,000
kilometers and its improved model has an estimated range of
15,000 kilometers covering the U.S. mainland.

On June 1, Ambassador Vershbow appeared on a CBS radio show,
where he said, "The missile issue is very serious. Since it
is related to intelligence, we cannot say whether there will
be a missile test or not, but it is certain that this is a
serious problem."



5. Rumsfeld to North: Follow Libya
(JoongAng Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2)

By Military Affairs Reporter Kim Min-suk

U.S. defense aide also cites Russia and China as problems

The U.S. defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, urged North
Korea to follow the "Libyan example" in a speech on Saturday
at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in
Singapore.

The future of the Pacific Rim, said Mr. Rumsfeld, will
depend on the path North Korea takes _ whether it continues
to repress its people and threaten its neighbors, or follows
Libya's example that "leads back to membership in the
community of nations."

Libya agreed to completely scrap its weapons of mass
destruction program in December 2003 and the United States,
in return, said it would restore full diplomatic ties with
the North African country.

Security cooperation among nations in Southeast Asia is
expanding but could be set back if China, Russia and North
Korea don't become more open and less threatening, Mr.

Rumsfeld said to delegates from the Asia-Pacific region
attending the annual conference hosted by the International
Institute for Strategic Studies.

"The way ahead for other nations will be something that our
country will watch closely," said Mr. Rumsfeld, citing
attempts by Russia to restrict the freedom of neighboring
countries, the continued lack of transparency in China's
military budget and threats by North Korea to develop
nuclear weapons. He also pledged that the United States
would stay involved in Southeast Asia and pointed to
improved relations between the United States and Japan,
India, Indonesia, South Korea and Pakistan.

After the speech, Mr. Rumsfeld met with Seoul's defense
minister, Yoon Kwang-ung, who was attending the conference
that started Friday and ended yesterday.

"The two countries reaffirmed that their alliance is
significant for the stability of the Korean Peninsula and
for the Northeast Asian region and agreed to make smooth
progress regarding issues related to the alliance," said
Kwon An-do, deputy defense minister for policy, who was at
the meeting.

6. Seoul Does Not Send Military Force to Khaan Quest
(JoongAng Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2)

By Washington Correspondent Kang Chan-ho

A U.S. military source said on June 3 that the ROK would
send five observers to the "Khaan Quest" exercise, a
multinational peace-keeping training set to start in
Mongolia in August.

According to the source, the ROK conveyed this decision to
the U.S. at the eighth ROK-U.S. Security Policy Initiative
meeting that was held in Hawaii on May 25.

Washington requested the ROK to send about 150-strong
military force to the joint military exercise last year.
After mulling over the request for as long as over half a
year, however, the ROK has recently decided to dispatch only
observers.

Behind this decision, Seoul appeared to have been concerned
that its large-scale participation could provoke Beijing.

But the U.S. military source dismissed this speculation,
saying, "The U.S. also requested China to join the training
as an observer, and the exercise has only the purpose of
maintaining peace."

Seoul has refused to participate in the U.S.-led
Proliferation Security Initiative exercise before recently
deciding to "observe" the exercise. It also declined to
join the PSI training at the level of maritime police hosted
by the U.S., Japan and Russia.



7. Korea, U.S. Mulling Halfway House for Wartime Control
(Digital Chosun, June 5, 2006)

A new combined command structure is being considered where
the nation's armed forces take charge of ground operations
and the U.S. Forces Korea of aerial and maritime operations
in an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, source said. Under
the existing command structure, the commander of Combined
Forces Command (CFC) under U.S. control exercises wartime
operational control on all ground, maritime and aerial
operations. The idea is to strengthen the role of Korea's
armed forces before full wartime operational is returned.

"Research is being conducted from a variety of viewpoints
about how to change the roles played by Korea and U.S.
forces to achieve the most effective operational command in
the Korean Peninsula theater," a military official said
Friday. "Command structures being discussed in the Security
Policy Initiative meetings between the two allies include
one where the nation's armed forces control combined ground
troops and the USFK controls or assists maritime and aerial
forces."

Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung and his U.S. counterpart
Donald Rumsfeld will meet on the sidelines of the Asia
Security Conference in Singapore on Saturday afternoon to
coordinate opinions about progress.

Meanwhile, North Korea has some 10 more submarines than
South Korean armed forces believed. Its artillery corps
have increased to two. "The Military Balance 2006" a report
which compares military capabilities around the world,
published by the U.K. International Institute for Strategic
Studies (IISS) estimates that the North has 88 submarines,
as against the 70 or so Korea's Defense White Paper last
year indicated.

The IISS report says North Korea possesses 22 1,800-ton
Romio class subs produced by the former Soviet Union, 21 300-
ton Shark class subs of the kind that infiltrated waters off
Gangneung in 1996, and subs smaller than 200-tons. In
addition, the North owns several Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
(UAVs) developed in the former Soviet Union, the report
says.



8. Four Out of Ten South Koreans Support ROK-U.S. FTA
(KBS, June 4, 2006)

By Reporter Hwang Dong-jin

Anchor: Today, we have the last part of the series on the
ROK-U.S. FTA. According to the outcome of a recent opinion
poll on the trade pact, supporters somewhat outnumbered
opponents, and yet many people were reluctant to give their
opinions, saying that they did not know what the FTA was.
Hwang Dong-jin reports.

Hwang: With the ROK-U.S. FTA talks set to start tomorrow,
supporters are found to outnumber opponents. According to a
nationwide survey of 1,000 adults conducted by KBS, 39%
supported the FTA while 22% objected to the trade deal.
However, as much as 36% were found to neither support nor
oppose.

As the reasons to approve the trade pact, 45% of the
respondents said the FTA would enhance the competitiveness
of domestic industries, and 31% answered that it would help
reinvigorate the economy.

Among the opponents, 43% said that if the FTA is concluded,
the ROK economy could be subordinated to the U.S. influence,
and 25% responded that Seoul is pushing for the FTA talks in
great haste.

Asked about the sectors that should be opened, 48% picked
social services, 37% agriculture, stockbreeding and
fisheries, and 13% manufacturing industries. On the
contrary, 78% and 13% chose agriculture, stockbreeding and
fisheries, and social services, respectively, as the sectors
that should stay closed.

Concerning the influence of the ROK-U.S. FTA on the ROK
society, 51% answered that it would have positive influence
while 45% said it would have negative impact on the Korean
society. Meanwhile, one out of three South Koreans
responded that they knew little about the ROK-U.S. FTA.
This survey was commissioned by the KBS News Headquarters to
the KBS Broadcasting Culture Research Team, which
interviewed 1,001 adults aged 20 and older across the nation
by telephone. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus
3.1 percent, with 95-percent reliability in its results.



9. Korean Trade Protesters Arrive in U.S.
(Dong-a Ilbo, June 5, 2006, Page 2)

By Washington Correspondent Kim Seung-ryun

With the opening of the free trade agreement between Korea
and the U.S. three days ahead, about 160 members of a
government negotiation team and an anti-negotiation protest
expedition arrived in Washington D.C. together on June 3.

The first round of the negotiations, which will be held from
June 5 to June 9, will mainly serve as a chance to find out
each other's negotiation strategies.

In the first round to be attended by Kim Jong-hun,
ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and
U.S. government institutions such as the USTR and the
Department of State, 22 fields, including agriculture,
textiles and telecommunications will be discussed. The U.S.
negotiation team consists of 60 people.

Choi Seok-young, an economic representative at the Korean
embassy in the U.S. said in a press conference on June 2,
"It seems that Korea will mainly focus on the agricultural
field such as the rice market, and the U.S. will
aggressively deal with the protection of industrial
products, such as textiles."

This negotiation team includes professional translators. An
official said, "Even though the negotiation team is
specialized in telecommunications and medicine, we
intentionally use interpreters in order to have a quiet
atmosphere and obtain common understanding." The second
round will be held in Seoul in July.

Meanwhile, it is said that the protest expedition aimed at
hampering the FTA between Korea and the U.S. is likely to go
to New York via a third city, since attempting to enter
through the Washington airport, could create entry
problems for the protestors.

All 50 of the protesters began to demonstrate in alliance
with some 100 members of a Korean civic group in the U.S.
and hundreds of members of ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and
End Racism) around the White House starting June 4.

An official of the protest expedition said, "Our objective
is to get across our message that some Koreans are against
the FTA negotiations. We will do our best to demonstrate
peacefully."

In a protest on the same day, some congressmen of the
Democratic Party, including Dennis Kucinich, also
participated. They represented manufacturing unions in the
U.S. who fear that American jobs will be lost because of
FTAs.

However, the leadership of the Democratic Party sent a
letter to George W. Bush last month to urge him to ensure
that the FTA between Korea and the U.S. make a tangible and
meaningful approach to the Korean automobile market.

VERSHBOW


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