OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 REGIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001642

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 REGIONAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Polls indicate that the main opposition
Grand National Party (GNP) will win 11 of the 16
gubernatorial and major mayoral races in nation-wide regional
elections on May 31. The ruling Uri Party and the Democratic
Party (DP) are projected to win in two races each, while the
independent incumbent is likely to retain Jeju Province.
Experts say the upcoming vote is shaping up to be a "protest
vote" against the Roh Administration, but that it remains to
be seen whether the GNP will be able to convert
dissatisfaction with Roh into support for the GNP in the
lead-up to the December 2007 presidential election. END
SUMMARY.

GNP POISED TO WIN AGAIN
--------------


2. (U) As the National Election Commission begins
registering candidates for the May 31 nation-wide regional
elections, all polls show the main opposition Grand National
Party (GNP) with commanding leads in 11 of the 16
gubernatorial and major mayoral races, sweeping the Youngnam
region (Gyeongsang Provinces, Daegu, Busan),Gyeonggi
Province, and Seoul.


3. (U) The ruling Uri Party, despite fielding several
high-profile former Cabinet ministers, is projected to win
just two races, Daejeon mayor and North Jeolla Province
governor. The Democratic Party (DP) is expected to win the
other two races in Jeolla, while the independent incumbent
governor of Jeju Province is likely to retain his seat. The
left-wing Democratic Labor Party (DLP) is running second in
one race (Ulsan) and third in 10 races. Meanwhile, the
recently formed People First Party (PFP),successor to the
now defunct United Liberal Democrats (ULD),is struggling to
maintain support in the ULD's traditional stronghold, the
Chungcheong Provinces.


4. (U) The 16 races and their projected winners, closest
competitors, and support rates are:

- Seoul: GNP
Oh Se-hoon (GNP) (50%) v. Kang Kum-sil (Uri) (32 %)

- Gyeonggi Province: GNP
Kim Moon-soo (GNP) (45%) v. Chin Dae-je (Uri) (24%)

- Incheon: GNP
Ahn Sang-soo (GNP) (47%) v. Choi Ki-sun (Uri) (17%)

- Daejeon: Uri
Yum Hong-chul (Uri) (46%) v. Park Sung-ho (GNP) (21%)

- N. Chungcheong Province: GNP
Jung Woo-taek (GNP) (50%) v. Han Bum-deok (Uri) (24%)

- S. Chungcheong Province: GNP
Lee Wan-koo (GNP) (33%) v. Oh Young-kyo (Uri) (21%)

- Gwangju: DP
Park Kwang-tae (DP) (41%) v. Kim Jae-kyun (Uri) (25%)

- Gangwon Province: GNP
Kim Jin-sun (GNP) (60%) v. Lee Chang-bok (Uri) (15%)

- N. Jeolla Province: Uri
Kim Wan-ju (Uri) (50%) v. Jung Kyun-hwan (DP) (14%)

- S. Jeolla Province: DP
Park Joon-young (DP) (49%) v. Suh Bum-seok (Uri) (15%)

- N. Gyeongsang Province: GNP
Kim Kwan-yong (GNP) (56%) v. Park Myung-jae (Uri) (17%)

- S. Gyeongsang Province: GNP
Kim Tae-ho (GNP) (51%) v. Kim Doo-kwan (Uri) (20%)

- Ulsan: GNP
Park Maeng-woo (GNP) (57%) v. Roh Ok-hee (DLP) (18%)

- Daegu: GNP
Kim Bum-il (GNP) (44%) v. Lee Jae-yong (Uri) (21%)

- Busan: GNP
Huh Nam-sik (GNP) (48%) v. Oh Geo-don (Uri) (19%)

- Jeju Province: Independent
Kim Tae-hwan (Ind.) (36%) v. Hyun Myung-gwan (GNP) (25%)


5. (U) The above numbers are taken from a poll conducted
April 30 through May 2 by the Korea Research Center and
published May 4 in the Donga Ilbo. Other polls since then
show slight variation in support rates, but consistently show
the same results in terms of winners and losers. Analysts
believe the only race that could see an upset is the Jeju
gubernatorial race, in which the incumbent, who recently left
the GNP and became an independent, is facing off against a
GNP challenger.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR ROH, REGIONALISM, 2007
--------------


6. (SBU) Projected results for the May 31 elections
demonstrate that regionalism remains a decisive factor in
electoral behavior, with the GNP dominating the eastern
Youngnam region and central metropolitan centers (Gyeongsang
Provinces, Daegu, Ulsan, Busan, Seoul, Incheon),and Uri and
the DP battling still for control over the western Honam
region (Jeolla Provinces, Gwangju). As the PFP struggles for
traction, the GNP appears to be making headway into the
heartland (Chungcheong Province, Gyeonggi Province, Gangwon
Province, Daejeon),whose voters have traditionally cast the
key swing votes in presidential elections.


7. (C) The projected results also reflect growing
dissatisfaction with the Roh Administration's performance.
This is most evident in the GNP's dominance of the races
around Seoul and in Gyeonggi Province, usually competitive
grounds for Uri and its predecessor parties. Although some
in the ruling Uri Party had sought to distance the party from
President Roh in an attempt to ameliorate the drag factor,
the party chose several Roh former Cabinet ministers as its
standard bearers in key races. All of them, including the
high-profile former Justice Minister Kang Kum-sil, are facing
certain defeat -- many by embarrassingly wide margins -- at
the hands of GNP rivals.


8. (C) Experts say that the May 31 elections will constitute
a strong "protest vote" against the Roh Administration, but
caution against seeing the regional votes as a bellwether for
the December 2007 presidential election. Prof. Kang
Won-taek, one of Korea's foremost electoral experts, noted to
Pol/Int Chief that it was not unusual for the opposition to
win mid-term elections in Korea, and that these mid-term wins
often do not translate into presidential victory.


9. (C) Park predicted a major political realignment in the
wake of the May 31 elections, with the possibility of formal
splintering in both Uri and the GNP, whose respective leaders
appear at the moment just barely able to contain internal
dissent and competition. Most analysts agree that Uri leader
Chung Dong-young has the most to lose. If, as projected, his
party loses in 14 of 16 races, his rivals are certain to pin
the blame on him and challenge his leadership, damaging his
aspirations to win the party's berth for the 2007
presidential race. But with expectations at a nadir, an
upset win anywhere could enable Chung to claim victory.


10. (C) As for GNP leader Park Geun-hye, she has announced
her intention to step down shortly after the May 31 regional
elections in order, ostensibly, to prepare her presidential
bid. But as cronies of Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak prepare to
"retake" the GNP -- party number two Lee Jae-oh is one of
Lee's closest allies -- Park might be tempted to establish a
new base from which to launch her bid for the Blue House,
Prof. Park said.
MINTON