URI PARTY DEFIES PRESIDENT ROH -- AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001454

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: URI PARTY DEFIES PRESIDENT ROH -- AGAIN

REF: A. SEOUL 55


B. 05 SEOUL 4969

C. SEOUL 287

Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The split between President Roh and his Uri
Party appears to be widening, as the ruling party rejected
Roh's pleas for compromised with the opposition on a
controversial law to reform the private school system. Uri
lawmakers are said to be angry that Roh has proposed a
compromise that could be seen as a victory for the Grand
National Party (GNP) and further dampen Uri's prospects in
the crucial May 31 regional elections. If, as widely
expected, the GNP defeats Uri again, it would be a
significant blow to the budding presidential bid of Uri
leader Chung Dong-young. It could also intensify the Roh-Uri
split, making it harder for Roh to advance his legislative
agenda. END SUMMARY.

URI REJECTS COMPROMISE WITH GNP
--------------


2. (U) Refusing a personal plea from President Roh, the
ruling Uri Party over the weekend rejected a Blue House
proposal to compromise with the main opposition Grand
National Party (GNP) on the Private School Law, set to go
into effect in June. The Uri-sponsored law creates
controversial oversight mechanisms over Korea's private
schools, a move that conservatives claim would impinge upon
academic freedom and private property rights and progressives
say is necessary to enhance management accountability. Uri,
with the help of minor opposition parties, passed the
legislation in December 2005, resulting in a boycott by the
GNP that paralyzed the National Assembly for almost two
months (REF A).


3. (U) The GNP had agreed to end its boycott in January,
following an agreement by Uri to consider amendments to the
law. Even then, Uri made clear that it had no intention of
making any significant changes. The GNP submitted a new
draft of the law on February 24, which Uri ignored. The
opposition on April 27 submitted another draft addressing the
law's most controversial provision: the appointment of
outsiders to the board of directors. Uri responded by
asserting that it could not accept the GNP's proposal to
broaden the scope of those who could recommend outside
directors as such a change would affect the very "essence" of
the already-passed law.


4. (U) Infuriated by Uri's intransigence, the GNP suggested
that it would resume its boycott. During an April 29
luncheon at the Blue House with floor leaders of the two main
parties, President Roh urged his own party to consider a
compromise with the opposition. The next day, Uri Chairman
Chung Dong-young announced that the party would not give in
to the GNP's demands. The GNP subsequently declared that it
was resuming its boycott.


5. (U) With only 142 of 297 seats in the National Assembly,
Uri has reached out to the minor parties in order to meet the
quorum of 149. (NOTE: The GNP has 125 seats. END NOTE.) The
far-left Democratic Labor Party, which controls nine seats,
has offered to cooperate in exchange for postponing a plenary
vote on the irregular worker bill (REF B).

ROH-URI DISCORD INCREASING
--------------


6. (C) That the Uri Party would so unceremoniously reject a
personal plea from Roh suggests that Chung Dong-young's
return to the party has not been able to halt the
deterioration of relations between the president and his
party. On the contrary, many in the Uri Party, including
perhaps Chung himself, are irked that Roh has proposed
compromise -- seen as a sign of weakness in Korean politics
-- just weeks ahead of the crucial May 31 regional elections.
With polls continuing to show that Uri is headed for another
resounding defeat, Uri leaders have been struggling to
reverse the tide.


7. (C) Roh's proposal, and Uri's rejection of it, is likely
to worsen already strained relations between President Roh
and his ruling Uri Party, making it complicated at best for
Roh to advance his immediate legislative priorities,
including the irregular workers bill and measures to combat
real estate speculation, to say nothing of more controversial
legislation expected in the months ahead. If, as widely
expected, the GNP wins big in the May 31 elections, many in
the party will be tempted to put the blame on Roh, whose
popularity was sagging in the low 30s until recently (the
"Dokdo effect" has seen Roh's approval rating jump into the
low 40s). Party leader Chung will also come in for his share
of the blame, weakening his grip on the party and his own
prospects for the 2007 presidential race.


8. (C) See SEOUL 287 for a broader prospective discussion of
ROK politics in 2006, including Roh-Uri discord and potential
for a major political realignment post May 31.
VERSHBOW