BOSNIA: DODIK RELEASES THE PRIVATIZATION HOUNDS.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000944

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (FOOKS/RIEHL),EUR/ACE (VISOCAN),AND
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STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: DODIK RELEASES THE PRIVATIZATION HOUNDS.
WHAT ARE THEY CHASING?


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS L. MCELHANEY FOR REASON 1.5(B).


1. (C) Summary. Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister
Milorad Dodik has launched a sweeping review of past
privatizations as his first major economic policy initiative.
A new law will establish a government-appointed commission
to hunt for "illegalities" in the privatization process,
assign responsibility, and report to prosecutors. The RS
government has given itself broad authority, including the
ability to "temporarily" freeze shares acquired during
privatization, in cases where the commission identifies
regulatory lapses. Although Dodik has touted the law as part
of his commitment to clean government, others in the RS
charge that it is merely a thinly disguised cover for a new

asset grab. The World Bank has voiced concerns that the
uncertainty provoked by the new law sends a "negative signal"
to investors. The law has brought recent efforts to
accelerate privatization in the RS, the major driver behind a
tentative upturn in the RS economy, to a screeching halt.
End Summary.

Let the Privatization Witch Hunt Begin
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2. (SBU) The RS National Assembly (RSNA) recently passed
the "Law on Revision of Privatization of State-owned Capital
in Enterprises and Banks", the first major economic
initiative championed by the Dodik government. The law
establishes a new budget-funded "Commission for Revision"
that is given a mandate to: 1) Determine privatization
illegalities; 2) Prevent organized crime from establishing
control over (state-owned) capital; 3) Determine the
liabilities and responsibilities of government employees in
privatization matters and; 4) Check contractual parties and
those "they jointly acted with" in the course of
privatization.


3. (SBU) To accomplish its task, the Commission is given
broad authority to obtain virtually any document it deems
necessary, including from private sources. It can instruct
the RS Supreme Auditor to conduct financial or other audits.
It may engage professional experts or others to support its
work. The Commission can undertake a review pursuant to a
request from any one of twelve institutions or on its own
initiative. It is not limited to investigation of activities
raised in a revision request and may broaden its scope as it
deems necessary. At a minimum, the revision should determine
the initial balance sheet values of enterprises and analyze
any significant changes to assets and liabilities. It should
also assess whether buyers of privatized assets have met
their post-privatization obligations as defined by contract.


4. (SBU) The Commission will report its findings to the
government, the RSNA, the DfP, the applicant and prosecutors
(if relevant). It is required to list any non-compliance
with laws or regulations and finger suspects. It is also
supposed to determine institutions and persons within them
that had responsibility for preventing and reporting
non-compliance but failed to do so. The Commission will
forward any evidence of criminal behavior to the relevant
prosecutors. The RS government will initiate legal
proceedings on the basis of the Commission's work. The
government may also, "until the finalization of court
proceedings, temporarily prohibit management of shares and
stock acquired in privatization for which the Commission has
documented actions that have resulted in breaches of
regulations."

Reaction
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5. (C) Dodik maintains that the privatization review is
part of his commitment to clean government. Not
surprisingly, the new law has provoked widespread unease
among others. Many suspect that, at a minimum, Dodik will
use the Commission's far-reaching authority to embark on a
pre-election fishing expedition for compromising material on
his political opponents. The Commission could also provide
the basis for well-timed legal suits against the political
competition. The new law has had a sobering effect on the
DfP, with staff leaving and morale at all-time low.


6. (C) The international community, led by the World Bank,
is also unnerved by the law. World Bank Country Manager Dirk

Reinermann registered his apprehension with the concept in an
April 20 letter in which stressed the need for further
privatization but noted, "We need to stress, however, that
focusing on past privatizations may send a negative signal to
investors and dissipate the energy of the new government."
Of greatest concern are provisions allowing the government to
interfere with the ownership rights of buyers of privatized
firms.

Comment
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7. (C) If the newly formed Commission puts the slightest
effort into finding irregularities, it is sure to find them.
However, ultimate responsibility for privatization failures
rest with the RS government, as it formally approves all
privatization tenders and other deals proposed by the DfP.
Dodik's review may be a useful political tool, but it could
also backfire if it discourages investment inflows
investments to privatized firms that are motoring the
tentative upturn in RS economic activity.
MCELHANEY