BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM GETS COMMITTEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000877

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM GETS COMMITTEE
APPROVAL; PARLIAMENT DEBATE APRIL 25

REF: SARAJEVO 841

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The U.S.-backed constitutional reform
package passed its first parliamentary hurdle when a
late-night session of the Constitutional and Legal Affairs
Committee (CLAC) voted in favor of sending the legislation to
the full House for consideration. The vote -- 5 to 2 in
favor, with two members absent -- was a major victory, made
possible by the unlikely support of reps from two minor Serb
parties. A key reason for their support: "technical
changes" to the package negotiated by the political party
leaders, just before the parliamentary session, in a six-hour
meeting of the negotiators convoked by the Ambassador. With
the CLAC obstacle removed, all efforts are now focused on the
April 25 session of the House of Representatives. (Note: it
is possible that this may be postponed to April 26, to allow
the House of Peoples to vote first on the 25th, but this is
still in the works.) The votes in the House are not yet
there, but we believe we are quite close. The House of
Peoples -- currently scheduled for April 26 -- poses fewer
problems; the party leaders believe that the legislation will
win support there. The Embassy, with active European/OHR
support, continues its extensive outreach, despite the
upcoming Orthodox Easter holiday. END SUMMARY.

CLAC SESSION TENSE


2. (C) On April 18, the CLAC postponed its vote until
April 19; the package's sponsors -- the political party
leaders who negotiated it -- came together, convoked by the
Ambassador, to discuss prelimnary stretegy immediately prior
to the session. However, the meeting quickly became
deadlocked over last-minute changes to the package demanded
by (Serb) SNSD leader and Srpska PM Dodik. The Ambassador and
others argued strenuously against opening up the agreement,
but Dodik, with support from his two Serb colleagues, stuck
to his guns. Dodik's chief concern centered on ensuring that
the amendments did not prejudge the outcome of on-going
police reform negotiations necessary to the EU Stabilization
Agreement. Despite EC Ambassador Humphries' assurances,
Dodik's scepticism was shared by the other Bosnian Serbs.
With the re-scheduled CLAC looming, party leaders took the
practical way out: they agreed on slight changes, to be
presented as "technical clarifications" of the package to the
CLAC. The BiH Presidency, hastily convoked after the
marathon six-hour meeting, then endorsed and sent the changes
forward.


3. (C) In parallel, Embassy officers met separately with
Bosnian Serb CLAC members Gligoric and Kunic. Their votes,
in the end, proved decisive. They were brought on board by a
combination of arguments, most importantly, inclusion of the
technical changes advocated by Dodik. Kunic was the most
unlikely vote; an independent, he has, until now, opposed
every state-building reform measure sent to Parliament. With
Gligoric and Kunic joining the (Serb) SDS and two SDA
(Bosniak) reps, the package had the support it needed. The
two Croats (one HDZ, one from the recent breakaway HDZ 1990)
walked out of the session before the final vote, when their
amendments, like all others, failed to garner the necessary
CLAC support (5 of 9 members).

PLANNING FOR "SUPER TUESDAY"


4. (C) The CLAC victory was essential but marks only the
first hurdle. The Embassy, international community and, most
importantly, the party leaders are now focused on "Super
Tuesday" April 25. On that day, the House of Representatives
is currently scheduled to consider the package. (Note:
party leaders may decide to have the House of Peoples vote
first on the 25th and move the House of Reps to the 26th.
This shift is, however, not yet firm.) While support in the
House of Peoples (scheduled for April 26) appears solid, the
House of Reps remains touch and go. The amendments need the
approval of 2/3 of those delegates present and voting. If
all delegates are present, that means 28 of 42 members of the
House of Reps must vote in favor. We do not have them yet,
though we believe we are within shooting distance.


5. (C) Party leaders are reaching out to every delegate in
their parties to ensure their support. We are also meeting
with key players. We will also meet again with HDZ 1990,
including Raguz; his walkout from the CLAC may indicate he

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wants to avoid a firm "no" vote on the package. We are
tightly coordinating our efforts with OHR and EU ambassadors,
and have told party leaders they must be present, along with
international reps, for the parliamentary session.
MCELHANEY