Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SARAJEVO841
2006-04-18 18:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AMENDMENTS GET

Tags:  PREL PGOV BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6723
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #0841/01 1081832
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181832Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3272
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000841 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AMENDMENTS GET
HOSTILE RECEPTION IN COMMITTEE; VOTE DELAYED UNTIL APRIL
19; NO MAJORITY IN SIGHT

REF: SARAJEVO 813 B) SARAJEVO 814

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000841

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AMENDMENTS GET
HOSTILE RECEPTION IN COMMITTEE; VOTE DELAYED UNTIL APRIL
19; NO MAJORITY IN SIGHT

REF: SARAJEVO 813 B) SARAJEVO 814

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The U.S.-brokered constitutional reforms
faced their first crucial parliamentary hurdle on April 18
when the House Constitutional and Legal Affairs Committee
(CLAC) considered the package in a marathon day-long session.
The result: a temporary stalemate, with the CLAC postponing
its vote until April 19. Difficulties in the CLAC are
primarily due to its composition, with four of the nine reps
from parties that have been overtly hostile to the package
(including one from breakaway Croat HDZ 1990). The situation
was complicated by proposals for fresh changes by Bosnian
Serbs. The opponents in the committee (two of whom have
long-standing strong relationships with the U.S. and European
officials),however, faced with an up-or-down vote on the
principles of the package, dodged the bullet by supporting a
motion by a delegate from a minor Serb party who suggested a
24-hour delay to reflect further. It is still narrowly
possible that the package will get the crucial 5 of 9 votes
tomorrow needed to forward it with a positive recommendation
to the full House on April 24.


2. (C) Our current strategy remains to keep the pressure up
on the nay-sayers in the committee to allow it to move to the
full House; a negative vote in committee will doom it
procedurally, and the critics well know that. Pressure from
the international community on two key players (Raguz and
Belkic) has had no visible effect -- although, faced with
voting "no" on the principles, and therefore killing the
package altogether may call their bluff. Statements of
support from European leaders (Blair and most recently, from
Solana -- with a Barroso statement reportedly in the works)
have been helpful in the public domain; the Embassy has
pressed the German Ambassador to solicit similar input.
Meanwhile, the Embassy continues its intensive outreach to

the Croat media. The Ambassdor addressed a televised
roundtable of Croats in Mostar today, and -- given the
negative comments by (Catholic) Cardinal Puljic over the
weekend -- will meet with the Papal Nuncio. Ambassador will
also meet with party leaders April 19 to strategize prior to
the CLAC session. END SUMMARY.

HOSTILITY IN THE COMMITTEE, DECISION DUCKED FOR 24 HOURS


3. (C) Given the makeup of the BiH House of Representatives
Constitutional Committee (2 members of SBiH, the party of
Haris Silajdzic, 2 anti-Covic Croat delegates, one radical
anti-reform Serb member),we face an uphill fight for weeks
to get the constitutional amendments package out of the
9-member committee into the full House. Procedurally, the
committee must forward the package with a "positive"
recommendation (via a simple majority),or the House will
simply return it for further discussion. Given the tightness
of the remaining calendar -- the Electoral Commission
must/must be in a position to announce the upcoming national
elections on May 4, with the amendments and electoral law
revisions safely passed -- there is simply no time left for a
"negative" report out of the committee. For hours, the
critics of the package -- two Bosniaks from (Silajdzic's
Bosniak) SBiH, two Croat break-aways from the Croat HDZ, and
two Serbs from minor parties, went round and round in
circles. Tellingly, none of the critics could find
sufficient votes for their own proposed amendments, as became
clear in the discussion. Thus, by day's end it was clear
that even the critics could not find sufficient common cause
to get the package amended in a way they could all live with,
because each side was seeking changes (cancelling the entity
vote; taking competencies away from the state; reinserting
ethnic blocking mechanisms) which the others found repugnant.
When the chair directed them to the unavoidable -- an up or
down vote on the principles, which could only then be
followed by votes on individual amendments -- a look of some
panic spread on at least several of the opponents' faces.
Confronted with the politically distasteful prospect of being
tagged responsible for killing the package -- and BiH's hopes
for constitutional change for the near term -- several of the
opponents immediately jumped onto a proposal to delay a vote
for 24 hours.


4. (C) Intervention with two key representatives -- SBiH's
Beriz Belkic and breakaway HDZ 1990 rep Martin Raguz (though
pressed by calls from the Department April 17 and constantly

SARAJEVO 00000841 002 OF 002


lobbied by the Ambassador) -- has had little visible effect
on their negative stance. Despite further calls from
European representatives, neither to date is giving any
indication that he will support the package or even abstain
when the vote is taken. Tomorrow will tell whether this is
indeed a bluff. We, and European interlocutors, have made
very clear to Belkic and Raguz that neither their reputations
nor their relations with us will recover if they, by a "no"
vote in committee, kill the amendments package. Tellingly,
Raguz has not even circulated for the committee's
consideration the rumored 7-8 amendments his party has
prepared. Belkic and his fellow SBiH traveler know well that
their only amendment -- to abolish entity-voting -- has no
chance of mustering sufficient support in committee, let
alone on the floor of the House. Their stance is purely
driven by the overwheening ambitions of their party's
ex-leader, Haris Silajdzic, some-time resident of BiH, to be
president in October.

WHAT WE EXPECT APRIL 19


5. (C) Ambassador has convoked all party leaders supportive
of the constitutional reform package to Sarajevo for a
strategy meeting April 19. Parties have spent more time
fighting among themselves over last minute efforts to
renegotiate the package, and despite constant demarches from
us and others, have failed to focus on the parliament. A
24-hour delay will only increase the pressure on those who
have tried to pretend, in conversations with us, European
officials, and in public, that their vote "doesn't count."
Nothing could be further from the truth at this time. It is
altogether possible that if the package musters the requisite
5 of 9 votes, it will be with the support of an anti-reform
Serb, who has opposed all of the major state-building reforms
in BiH to date. He has aligned himself with a Serb member
from the Socialist Party who is leaning our way, but requires
a push, which he will get tonight from us, as well as other
political party leaders who negotiated the agreement. Raguz
and Belkic, in particular, will then be faced with the kind
of responsibility that they have tried to evade for weeks --
accepting that they cannot, this time around, get the support
they want for their way and join the majority to support this
critical first step in constitutional reform. Unfortunately,
as is often the case in Bosnian politics, it is not at all
clear that they will show the requisite political courage.

EMBASSY, EUROPEAN OUTREACH CONTINUES


5. (C) Embassy continues pressing the international
community here to ramp up vocal support for the
constitutional reform package, particularly with the Bosnian
Croat community. Prior to his departure for New York, High
Rep Schwarz-Schilling asked former Belgian PM and head of the
European People's Party Martens to intervene with breakaway
HDZ 1990 leader Bozo Ljubic (who, like Raguz, remains
opposed). OHR staff also reached out to members of the
committee over the weekend, as have key members of the
Steering Board Ambassadors. Today, EU High Rep for the CFSP
Solana sent a letter of support for the package to party
leaders, which arrived in time to be read aloud at the April
18 CLAC. (It was covered widely in the press April 18.) We
understand a similar statement from Barrosso is in the works.



6. (C) Parallel to Embassy Zagreb's outreach to the HDZ
leadership, the UK is also intervening with Sanader via its
Ambassador in Zagreb. Cardinal Puljic's negative comments on
constitutional reform (directly criticizing the U.S. for
"driving remaining Croats out of BiH") in the weekend press
has received wide coverage here. The Ambassador used a
televised April 18 roundtable with prominent Croat
politicians and intellectuals to counter effectively a number
of arguments being used primarily by breakaway HDZ 1990 to
bolster its slim electoral chances. In addition, the
Ambassador will brief the papal nuncio here in Sarajevo on
Thursday; we believe outreach by our Embassy to the Vatican
would be extremely helpful in this regard. The UK Ambassador
has assured us that his government will also be reaching out
to the Church via its Vatican emissary.

MCELHANEY