BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PACKAGE IN PERIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000813

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DEPT FOR D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PACKAGE IN PERIL

REF: SARAJEVO 742

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: With a key parliamentary committee session
slated for April 18, critical votes are still lacking to move
the constitutional reform package out of committee for
decision in the full House of Representatives. In the
nine-member committee, only 4 votes are in the bag. Of the
remaining five members, two are immovably opposed (and not
subject to pressure from the negotiating parties). That
means that committee approval hinges on three individuals:
Beriz Belkic, of the largely Bosniak "Party for BiH" (SBiH),
Martin Raguz, of the breakaway Bosnian Croat "HDZ 1990"
party; and Filip Andric, still a member of HDZ (though
perhaps not for long). The Embassy, the OHR, and others in
the international community are leaning heavily on all three,
urging that they allow the package to move forward to the
full House for discussion on April 24. Public hearings on
the package were held on April 12, drawing only some 300
people. However, it was disturbingly under-attended by
representatives of the negotiating parties themselves. We
are pressing both Bosniak and Bosnian Serb leaders to ensure
their parliamentary votes are firmly lined up. The
Secretary's letter to the parties urging them to pass the

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legislation has received wide and favorable coverage. But
even if it is, there is every possiblity that an informal
SBiH-HDZ 1990 alliance could reject constitutional reform in
the plenary of the House of Representatives. END SUMMARY.

COUNTDOWN TO COMMITTEE VOTE


2. (C) We have five days to go before the constitutional
reform package agreed by the leaders of BiH's main political
parties last month faces its first parliamentary test:
passage by the Constitutional and Legal Affairs Committee
(CLAC). In the nine-member committee, we count only four
members as sure "yes" votes. Two of the remaining five can
be classified as "immovable objects;" an independent and a
fringe party member, they cannot be moved from firm
opposition. That puts the fate of the constitutional reform
package into the hands of three delegates: SBiH's (Bosniak)
Beriz Belkic, HDZ 1990's (Croat) Martin Raguz, and HDZ's
(Croat) Filip Andric. All are a hard sell -- and we need all
of them.

BELKIC REMAINS (UNCOMFORTABLY) IN OPPOSITION


3. (C) Both in April 12's public hearings and in meetings
with the Embassy, representatives of the small government
coalition "Party for BiH" (SBiH) have remained firmly opposed
to the constitutional reform package. SBiH's stance is
particuarly troubling as the party participated in the
negotiating process until its dramatic walkout at endgame,
when potential SBiH presidential candidate Haris Silajdzic
realized reform would sink his election strategy.
Ironically, getting the package out of committee now depends,
in part, on an SBiH MP who actually participated in the
negotiations -- Beriz Belkic.


4. (C) In meetings with the Ambassador and Polcouns, Belkic
has acknowledged his unhappiness with Silajdzic's stance (he
knows the party's credibility, and his own, is being
sacrificed to Silajdzic's personal ambitions). Belkic argues
that he needed a "signal" from the USG (and the Serbs) that
he could use within the party, to ensure that "phase II"
deals with such issues as the role of the entities. The
Embassy emphasized our clear support for dealing with any and
all necessary issues in the next phase of negotiations. But
we need to see progress from "phase one" first. Belkic
understands that his own integrity and reputation are at
stake, not only in Washington, but also in Europe. We
continue to press Belkic, as are our European colleagues. At
this point, we expect Belkic to offer unhelpful changes to
the package. Whether he will allow it to move forward even
if those changes are rejected remains unclear.

AND CROATS, DIVIDED, EMBROILED IN ELECTORAL POLITICS


5. (C) Embassy has reported septel on the April 8 founding
of breakaway "HDZ 1990," and its troubling implications for
constitutional reform. Bottom line: HDZ 1990 needs to
define itself fast, and seems determined to use opposition to
constitutional reform to paint itself as the true defender of
Croat interests. HDZ 1990 MP Martin Raguz holds a key vote
in the CLAC; the Embassy has put the pressure on both Raguz

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and HDZ 1990 leader Bozo Ljubic. With both, we are
underscoring that the U.S. and EU assessment of their party
hinges on constitutional reform. Our future relations with
Ljubic, Raguz and others in HDZ 1990 will be defined by their
actions. Ljubic and Raguz have indicated Raguz will try to
amend the package in the CLAC, focusing particularly on the
diminished role of the House of Peoples. The Ambassador also
told Raguz bluntly that, if HDZ 1990's amendments were not
supported, Raguz needed to allow the package to move to the
full House of Representatives, as scheduled. On April 12,
Ljubic showed some flexibility, saying he could not "dictate"
how his two MPs would vote.


HIGH REP AND EUROPEANS BACK OUR MESSAGE TO CROATS


6. (C) We are coordinating closely with the High Rep and EU
ambassadors to get these three votes. The High Rep reached
out to Raguz on April 12, urging him to vote his conscience
and underscoring that if Raguz supported constitutional
reform now, the High Rep would play an active role in "phase
two." In the High Rep's April 13 conversation with HDZ 1990
leader Ljubic, Ljubic also seemed focused on "phase two."
The High Rep has also held confidential meetings between
Croat and German bishops, and lobbied the Vatican to, at the
least, neutralize the Catholic Church's opposition. The
European Commission has confirmed that a letter from Barroso
to BiH Tri-Presidency member Tihic is expected to arrive
before the April 18 committee session, to add impetus to the
process.

BUT THE NEGOTIATORS NEED TO SPEAK OUT, TOO


7. (C) Meanwhile, the noticeable absence of most party
leaders from the April 12 public hearings illustrates a
disturbing nonchalance on the part of the package's
negotiating parties -- its key supporters. (Ambassador
appeared on a one-hour talk show on constitutional reform,
where commentators blasted majority parties for being AWOL in
the current public discussion). We are pressing parties to
ensure party discipline over the next ten days. Party
leaders need to have their MPs firmly committed and well
instructed on strategy. That is particularly important in
the CLAC April 18, but will also be essential on the House
floor April 24.


8. (C) We welcome Department plans for possible VOA
appearances and DVCs. We continue to refer to the
Secretary's message to party leaders, urging them to pass the

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legislation, so as to begin a second phase.



MCELHANEY