SDS MOVES TO THE RIGHT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 003254

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: SDS MOVES TO THE RIGHT


Summary
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1. (SBU) Serb Democratic Party (SDS) internal elections held
December 16 reveal a party divided, with new leadership
rethinking the party's support for constitutional reform in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mladen Bosic, former Deputy
President of SDS and the party's failed 2006 state presidency
candidate, was elected President of the party with a narrow
majority. Bosic has called for democratization of SDS, as
well as a new party platform and bylaws, and party elections
at all levels by the end of May 2007. In addition to the
possible withdrawal of support for key reforms, leadership
changes in SDS could contribute to a radicalization of the
political climate in both the Republika Srpska (RS) and
Bosnia as a whole, and could lead to an attempt by SDS
hardliners to reassert control of the party. END SUMMARY.

SDS ACCEPTS RESIGNATION OF CAVIC, ELECTS BOSIC PRESIDENT
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2. (SBU) In a Main Board session December 15 and a Party
Assembly December 16, SDS formally accepted the resignation
of its President, Dragan Cavic, and narrowly elected Mladen
Bosic to head the party for the next six months. Bosic
defeated his opponent, East Sarajevo Mayor Radomir Kezunovic,
widely seen as a representative of the Cavic camp, by a tally
of 190 to 108. While he defeated Kezunovic by a fairly wide
margin, Bosic won the necessary simple majority of all
delegates present by only 14 votes.


3. (SBU) In addition to serving most recently as SDS Deputy
President, Bosic was SDS candidate for Serb member of the
state Presidency in October 2006 elections. Bosic previously
served as Bosnian Ambassador to Slovenia and, while Deputy
President of SDS, he represented the party at technical talks
on constitutional reform led by USIP. Bosic currently serves
as the director of Telekom Srpske in Brcko and is a member of
the Brcko Assembly.

BOSIC PLANS "DEMOCRATIZATION" AND REVIEW OF PARTY POLICY
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4. (SBU) Both publicly and in a meeting with emboff Bosic
highlighted his goals for his short term as president;
democratization and decentralization of the party. Bosic
said that in order to consolidate SDS following its 2006
electoral losses, he will encourage the passage of new party
bylaws by the end of February 2007. Based on these new
procedures elections will be held at all level within the
party, starting at the municipal and regional level, and
ending with elections for Main Board, Presidency and
President and the formation of a new party platform by late
May.


5. (SBU) When asked what a new platform for SDS would mean,
Bosic told emboff that he did not intend to radicalize SDS,
but that he would reestablish the SDS claim to the
right-center of the RS political spectrum, a position which
he said RS Premier Milorad Dodik had successfully usurped in
the 2006 campaign. On current reform initiatives, such as
police and constitutional reforms, Bosic did not rule out
support but said that SDS would not participate in these
processes "as a satellite of Dodik." On police reform,
resolutions passed by the RS National Assembly (RSNA) would
be the party's guide, Bosic said, promising SDS opposition to
any police reform document that went beyond this framework.



6. (SBU) On constitutional reform, Bosic said that while the
SDS Main Board had supported the March package of
constitutional reforms and SDS MPs had voted in favor of its
passage, the defeat of this package in the state House of
Representatives meant that this package was dead. Should the
package be reintroduced in the House of Representatives,
Bosic said that parties would have to debate the package
again under new political circumstances. Bosic did not rule
out eventual SDS support for a return to the March package,
but reiterated on several occasions that SDS would not take
such a position without the explicit support of both party
leadership and its base.

OPPOSITION IN THE OPPOSITION
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7. (SBU) Bosic,s narrow majority is not the sole factor
suggesting persistent divisions within the SDS following this
leadership struggle. One leading SDS office holder, SDS
state House of Representatives MP Momcilo Novakovic, has
publicly opposed Bosic,s plan to reevaluate support for the

SARAJEVO 00003254 002 OF 002


March package. In a statement in the daily Euro Blic,
Novakovic announced his resignation as leader of the SDS
Caucus in the state House of Representatives because he said
he could not accept the party's decision to revisit support
of the package. According to Novakovic, there will never be
a better package of constitutional reforms for the RS.

AFTER BOSIC...
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8. (SBU) Many, especially those supporting former SDS
President Dragan Cavic, contend that the current leadership
struggle is merely beginning. They have stated that the move
to sack Cavic and replace him with Bosic represents an effort
by old guard SDS voices, including figures removed by OHR
like Dragan Kalinic, to reassert their position in the party.
While there have been no public efforts by such figures to
assert control of the party, many observers, both inside and
outside of SDS, have asked whether or not individuals like
Kalinic will be automatically rehabilitated following the
expected departure of OHR in mid-2007.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Few feel that the election of Mladen Bosic is the
end of the leadership struggle in SDS, and continued
division, or even the formation of a rival party, can not be
excluded. While SDS currently holds very few levers of power
at the state or entity levels, the outcome of this struggle
is not without import for both RS and state-level politics.
SDS is likely to withhold its support for police and
constitutional reforms, making their adoption more of a
political risk for RS Premier Milorad Dodik. Moreover, if
SDS chooses to adopt more nationalist rhetoric, this could
force the policies, not just the campaigning, of the Dodik
government to the right. Finally, attempts by nationalists
like Dragan Kalinic to reassert control over SDS, either
directly or indirectly, could be one of the first challenges
Bosnia faces following the departure of OHR. End Comment.
CEFKIN