BOSNIA: INAUGURAL SESSION OF BIH PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002931

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DICARLO, EUR/SCE FOR HOH, FOOKS AND STINCHCOMB, NSC
FOR BRAUN, OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: INAUGURAL SESSION OF BIH PARLIAMENT
COLLAPSES UNDER COALITION PRESSURE


Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Murphy, reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: At the inaugural session of the BiH House of
Representatives (HoR) held on November 20, delegates failed
to agree on even the most mundane procedural issues,
including the organization of the parliament and the election
of the three co-speakers. What was thought to be a
pre-cooked arrangement for the selection of the co-speakers
unraveled when the largest Serb party, the Alliance of
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) refused to agree to a
vote, noting that a government coalition should be agreed
prior to the election of the speakers in order to maximize
the effectiveness of the future government and parliament.
The session exposed some of Party for BiH's political
weaknesses, since it had sought to engineer the speakership
deal. The HoR will reconvene on Thursday, November 23,
though it is unclear whether it will settle on new
co-speakers then. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) At the inagural session of the BiH HoR, Alliance of
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) MP Nikola Spiric, one of
the co-speakers of the HoR in the previous parliament and a
leading contender to be Prime Minister in the next state
government, announced that his party would not support
selection of the co-speakers of the HoR until a decision had
been made on the formation of a state government coalition.
Prior to the session, the Bosniak Party of Democratic Action
(SDA) and Party for BiH (SBiH) agreed to the election of
Beriz Belkic of the Party for BiH (SBiH) and Martin Raguz of
the Croatian Democratic Union-1990 (HDZ-1990) as Bosniak and
Croat speakers, respectively, and Sulejman Tihic as
co-speaker of the House of Peoples.


3. (C) Spiric's move caught SBiH, HDZ-1990, and SDA by
surprise, and their disarray was visible during the session.
Belkic was furious at Spiric, but was unable to garner the
votes needed to stop him. SDA MPs simply sat on their hands
and watched. The public failure made clear SBiH is not as
close to concluding a coalition agreement with any party,
except perhaps HDZ-1990, as the SBiH-leaning daily Dnevni
Avaz claims. SBiH looked more like the other major parties'
coalition partner of last resort rather than the Svengali of
the Bosnian political scene.


4. (C) COMMENT: Spiric is often cocky, and he certainly
played to the galleries today, proudly flexing the SNSD's
parliamentary muscle. Undoubtedly, Avaz and others will
portray SNSD's decision to block a deal on the speakership as
"Serb highhandedness," but there is a less sinister political
logic behind SNSD's actions. Spiric, the leading SNSD
candidate for PM, may have been seeking to prevent the
conflicts that could result if the parliamentary leadership
comes from parties not included in the governing coalition, a
sign of SNSD's interest in participating in an effective
state-level government. The episode made several
parliamentarians nervous about their parties' ability to form
a government, however. Several approached us on the margins
of the session and hinted that they hope the U.S. intervenes
to guide coalition talks. END COMMENT.
MCELHANEY