BOSNIA - FINAL 2006 ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002569

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - FINAL 2006 ELECTION RESULTS


Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: This afternoon the Central Election
Commission (CEC) provided us with an advance copy of the
final election results, which they made public at a 1700
press conference in Sarajevo. The results are in line with
our earlier assessments based on partial results the CEC had
released sporadically over the last two weeks. Most
importantly, the parties that supported the U.S.-brokered
package of constitutional reforms will hold a 2/3 majority in
the State-level House of Representatives. The new House will
include only 11 returning MPs, however. In the Federation,
Haris Silajdzic's Party for BiH did better than expected and
the Croat prefixed parties saw their total number of seats
decline. In the Republika Srpska (RS),RS PM Dodik's party,
the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),came
within hair's breath of winning an outright majority.
Bosniak parties saw a dramatic decline in the number of seats
they hold in the RS National Assembly. END SUMMARY

State-level House of Representatives
--------------


2. (U) The seat distribution for the 42-member State-level
House of Representatives (HoR) is as follows (Note: The
number in parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats
compared to the 2002 elections. End Note):

-- Party of Democratic Action (SDA): 9 (-1)
-- Party for BiH (SBiH): 8 ( 2)
-- Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD): 7 ( 4)
-- Social Democratic Party (SDP): 5 ( 2)
-- Serb Democratic Party (SDS): 3 (-2)
-- Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia-Herzegovina (HDZ): 3
(-2)
-- HDZ-1990: 2 (new)
-- Party for Democratic Progress (PDP): 1 (even)
-- National Party for Work and Progress (Za Boljitak or RzB):
1 (new)
-- Democratic National Union (DNZ): 1 (even)
-- Bosnian Patriotic Party-Sefer Halilovic (BPS): 1 (new)
-- National Democratic Party (DNS): 1 (new)

State-level Politics Initial Observations
--------------


3. (C) The parties that supported the U.S.-brokered package
of constitutional amendments (i.e., SDA, SNSD, SDP, SDS, and
HDZ) hold 28 seats, precisely the 2/3 required to pass the
package.

-- (C) That said, SDA's commitment to the package is in
doubt. Party members are panicked by SBiH Haris Silajdzic's
trouncing of SDA Sulejman Tihic in the race for the Bosniak
member of the Tri-Presidency, which they read as a vote
against the package by Bosniaks.

-- (C) SDA remains the largest Bosniak party. The SDA and
SDP legislative vote combined is 369,000, well above SBiH's
196,000. This undercuts SBiH's claim that it has a mandate
to reject the U.S.-brokered constitutional reform package, a
point we will emphasize to wavering SDA MPs.

-- (C) Only 11 of the 42 members of the new HoR served in the
old HoR, which means many of them, despite their party's
position on constitutional reform, will be voting on the
package for the first time. This presents both opportunities
and risks for us as we work to solidify support for the
U.S.-brokered package.

Federation House of Representatives
--------------


4. (U) The seat distribution for the 98-member Federation
House of Representatives (FHoR) is as follows. (Note: The
number in parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats
compared to the 2002 elections. End Note)

-- SDA: 28 (-4)
-- SBiH: 24 ( 9)
-- SDP: 17 ( 2)
-- HDZ: 8 (-8)
-- HDZ-1990: 7 ( 7)
-- BPS: 4 (new)

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-- RzB: 3 (new)
-- Patriotic Blok (Bosnian Party (BOSS) - Social Democratic
Union (SDU) Coalition): 3 (even)
-- DNZ: 2 (even)
-- Croatian Party of Rights-Djapic-Jurisic (HSP-D/J)/New
Croat Initiative (NHI) Coalition: 1 (-2)
-- SNSD: 1 (even)

Federation Politics: Initial Observations
--------------


5. (C) In comparison with the previous Federation HoR, there
was a dramatic reduction in the number of parties
represented, down from 18 parties to 11.

-- (C) The 22 seats previously held by Croat-prefixed parties
(16 were HDZ alone) now have been reduced to 16 overall and
is almost evenly split between the two HDZ's. The reduction
in the number of Croat seats may reflect a decreasing Croat
population.

-- (C) The strong showing by SBiH is surprising, considering
that Silajdzic was not considered to have long coattails
prior to the election. Better organization and more money
spent in the provinces appear to have paid dividends for the
party.

Republika Srpska National Assembly
--------------


6. (U) The seat distribution for the 83-seat Republika Srpska
National Assembly (RSNA) is as follows (Note: The number in
parentheses indicates the net gain or loss of seats compared
to the 2002 elections. End Note):

-- SNSD: 41 ( 23)
-- SDS: 18 (-26)
-- PDP: 7 (-2)
-- DNS: 4 (new)
-- SBiH: 4 (even)
-- Serb Radical Party (SRS-RS): 2 (-1)
-- Socialist Party (SP): 3 (even)
-- SDA: 3 (-3)
-- SDP: 1 (-2)

Republika Srpska Politics: Initial Observations
-------------- --


7. (C) The big story in the RSNA, as we expected, was the
huge victory by RS PM Dodik's SNSD. The party did nt
achieve the absolute majority it would have lied, but it
came within a hair's breadth of doingso, and will be able to
form a government withou Dragan Cavic's previously dominant
SDS.

-- () The new three percent threshold rules had the biggest
impact in the RS. The number of parties represented in the
RSNA is down from 17 to 9. Previously, there were eight
parties with one seat apiece, which made forming a voting
coalition much more complex.

-- (C) The SDS's poor showing has already prompted internal
wrangling about blame with some focusing their attention on
party leader Cavic. Cavic, the SDS's losing candidate for
the RS Presidency, will defend himself by pointing out that
he outpolled his party.

-- (C) There was a dramatic drop in the representation from
Bosniak parties in the RSNA (from 13 to 8),but it was not as
dire as some had predicted while waiting for final results.
Nonetheless, we expect this outcome to become a significant
post-election story line.
MCELHANEY