Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SARAJEVO2305
2006-09-29 11:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: THE DAY AFTER

Tags:  PGOV BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4617
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHVJ #2305/01 2721151
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291151Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4511
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002305 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DICARLO, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR
FLORY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: THE DAY AFTER

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1891


B. SARAJEVO 1916

C. SARAJEVO 2281

SARAJEVO 00002305 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002305

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DICARLO, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR
FLORY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: THE DAY AFTER

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1891


B. SARAJEVO 1916

C. SARAJEVO 2281

SARAJEVO 00002305 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) This is the fourth in a planned series of
election-related cables. It provides information on the
procedure and timeline for formation of governing coalitions
in Bosnia and Herzegovina.



2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina will
go to the polls October 1 to elect the three members of
Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) State-level Tri-Presidency;
President and Vice President of the Republika Srpska (RS);
and members of the state, entity and cantonal legislatures.
(ref. A) According to Bosnian election law, the Central
Election Commission (CEC) must certify poll results within 30
days of the election. In the case of elections this year, no
later than October 31. The newly-elected legislatures at the
state, entity and cantonal levels, and directly elected
executives, must take office within 30 days of the
certification, i.e., by November 30. The timeline could be
shortened if, as in previous years, the CEC certifies the
election results early. After the new legislatures convene,
governing coalitions are formed and governments at the state,
entity and cantonal levels choose their ministers. Formation
of governing coalitions may take several weeks to several
months. We expect the new state government to be fully in
place by mid-January 2007. END SUMMARY.

Forming the Governing Coalitions
--------------


3. (U) Following the October 1 elections, the Central
Election Commission (CEC) will have a maximum of 30 days to
certify the election results for the Presidency, the State
House of Representatives, entity parliaments and cantonal
assemblies. (Note: Cantonal assemblies exist only in the
Federation. End Note.) The newly elected state, entity and
cantonal Houses of Representatives must convene within 30
days of the announcement of the official election results,
this year no later than November 30. The State
Tri-Presidency, and the President and Vice President of the
Republika Srpska (RS),also take office 30 days following the
certification.


4. (U) The CEC will hold press conferences at midnight on
October 1, and at noon on Monday, October 2, during which it

will announce preliminary, unofficial results. In past
elections, unofficial election results announced the day
after the election (as opposed to the preliminary results
announced on election night) generally have been accurate.
CEC officials have told us the Commission is confident it
will be able to announce the official results well in advance
of the thirty-day deadline. In 2002, it announced the
results less than three weeks after the election.


Choosing the State, Entity and Cantonal Prime Ministers
-------------- --------------


5. (U) At the state level, once the parties agree on a
governing coalition, the new coalition prepares a joint
platform and begins discussions on nominees for the office of
Prime Minister. The Chairman of the Tri-Presidency formally
nominates the Prime Minister-designate, and forwards the
nomination to the House of Representatives for approval. If
the House of Representatives does not approve the nomination
by a simple majority (including a qualified majority
representing at least one third of the delegates from both
entities),the President must nominate another candidate.
The President has three opportunities to nominate a Prime
Minister. If the House of Representatives votes down all
three candidates, new elections must be called.


6. (U) The process is the same in the RS, where the
President is directly elected. In the Federation, the
Federation House of Representatives chooses the Federation
President and Vice President by confirming the individuals
selected by the newly-formed governing coalition. The
Federation President then chooses the Federation Prime
Minister, who also is confirmed by the Federation House of
Representatives. Cantonal assemblies follow similar
procedures.


SARAJEVO 00002305 002.2 OF 002


Selecting the Council of Ministers
--------------


7. (U) Following the confirmation of the Prime
Minister-designate by the State House of Representatives, the
new Prime Minister, also known as the President of the
Council of Ministers (CoM),chooses a new government. In the
past, governing coalitions generally have agreed in advance
on the distribution of ministries among their parties,
allowing this process to proceed quickly. The Prime Minister
often announces his ministers within seven days of his
confirmation. The process in the entities is the same for
entity-level ministries.

Choosing Delegates for the House of Peoples
--------------


8. (U) At the state level, delegates for the State House of
Peoples (the upper house of parliament, made up of 15
members, five from each of the three
constitutionally-recognized peoples) are chosen in the
following manner: The Republika Srpska National Assembly
(RSNA) (the House of Representatives equivalent in the RS)
chooses the five Serb delegates to the State House of Peoples
by a simple majority vote. Individual RSNA representatives
nominate candidates. In the Federation, cantonal assemblies
choose delegates to the Federation House of Peoples, which in
turn chooses the Bosniak and Croat delegates to the State
House of Peoples. The two-step procedure in the Federation
has the potential to cause some delays in the process for
choosing State House of Peoples delegates, especially if
governing coalitions are different at the cantonal and entity
levels.

Timeline for Government Formation
--------------


9. (U) After the legislatures at the state, entity and
cantonal levels convene, they will begin work on forming
government coalitions at all levels. In past elections, this
process has begun much sooner, with party leaders discussing
post-election coalitions well in advance of the elections.
Generally speaking, the government formation process can last
from several weeks to several months, depending on the nature
of coalition deliberations. Coalition agreements at the
state level often are linked directly with agreements at the
entity and cantonal levels. There is no statutory time limit
on the formation of governing coalitions at any level of
government. During the period between the elections and the
establishment of the new CoM, the incumbent CoM continues to
perform the day-to-day activities of government via a
technical mandate. Parliament is dissolved after national
elections and, as a result, there are no "lame duck"
parliamentary sessions.

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) If, as expected, new election rules requiring that
parties cross a three percent threshold to enter parliament
limit the number of small party representatives elected to
all legislatures, government formation could be streamlined.
Under this scenario, a state government could be formed as
early as mid-December. A more conservative timeline would
place a new government in office soon after the new year and
Serb Orthodox January holidays. Possible complicating
factors may include the election of a Tri-Presidency member
from a party outside the governing coalition that wins few
legislative seats and refuses to nominate the coalition's
first choice for Prime Minister. Differing coalitions at the
state and lower levels of government could also extend the
negotiating process. End Comment.
MCELHANEY