BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: NGOS CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002281

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ,
FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, STATE PLEASE PASS
TO USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: NGOS CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED
ISSUE-BASED DIALOGUE


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1. (U) This is the third in a planned series of elections
related telegrams.


2. (U) SUMMARY: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in
Bosnia and Herzegovina are generally active in the run-up to
the October national elections. In particular, a
USAID-funded coalition of NGOs called Civic Organizing for
Democracy (GROZD),has a twelve issue platform which has
received broad public support through a massive signature
campaign. Despite their organizational success, only the
Social Democratic Party has embraced the GROZD program with
any enthusiasm. Other parties have focused their campaign on
nationalist themes. Bosnians claim they are turned off by
nationalist campaigning, but they also are disengaged and
often do not understand Bosnia's political structure. GROZD,
a youth organization called Youth Information Agency (OIA),
and a few others are trying to mobilize voters through voter
education, get-out-the-vote campaigns and various initiatives
to hold political parties accountable for their promises.
Their efforts will most likly yield limited results on
October 1, but they re attempting to lay the groundwork for
a more poitically engaged civil society in Bosnia. END
SMMARY.


NGOs DEMAND ISSUE FOCUSED CAMPAIGN
--------------


3. (U) NGOs across Bosnia and Herzegovina have actively
campaigned on behalf of their respective issues in advance of
the October 1st national elections. GROZD, an umbrella
organization funded by USAID made up of several hundred NGOs,
has launched a campaign to focus attention on issues
important to voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina. GROZD
represents the first broad, citizen based attempt to change
the political dialogue in post-war Bosnia. Additionally, the
youth umbrella organization, OIA, has launched a catchy voter
information and get-out-the-vote campaign. Both
organizations, along with other NGOs are inserting a small
amount of civic activism into the pre-election atmosphere,
working to educate and mobilize voters in the short term, and
to change the relationship between civil society and the
government over the long term.


4. (U) GROZD, which was founded four years ago as an election
monitoring organization, canvassed Bosnia over recent months
to form a citizen-based political platform. GROZD visited
around 100 cities, interacting with local populations by
conducting surveys and holding open forums. With community
input, the organization composed a 12 point platform that
incorporates bread and butter issues such as unemployment,
poverty, pensions, and health care, and national political
issues such as EU membership, foreign investment and
corruption. GROZD then took their platform on the road to
build citizen support with the goal of securing 500,000
signatures by September 30, 2006 (NOTE: As of September 24,
GROZD had 460,000. END NOTE). 500,000 is a significant
number; it represents more votes than any single political
party or coalition has received in the past.


5. (U) Simultaneously, GROZD marketed their platform to
political parties. Four of the major parties, Party for
Democratic Action (SDA),Social Democratic Party (SDP),Party
for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) and Party of Democratic
Progress (PDP),have signed on to all or parts of the
platform, as have many smaller parties. SDP, however, is the
only party that GROZD says pays any substantive attention to
their issues. Many political parties have been reluctant to
endorse the GROZD platform because it identifies problems
without recommending policy solutions. Republika Srpska
Prime Minister Milorad Dodik claimed that the platform did
not support the interests of Bosnian Serbs, suggesting that
GROZD add an item on maintaining the existence of the RS. On
September 30, GROZD will hold rallies in Bosnia's major
cities -- Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Tuzla and Mostar -- hoping to
use the pre-election embargo on campaigning by political
parties to focus voters on their platform.


6. (U) The youth movement, OIA, is focused on voter
education, get-out-the-vote events, and lobbying politicians
on youth issues. Like GROZD, OIA began their election
activism with a tour around Bosnia to discuss issues of
importance to the 18-30 year old demographic group. OIA
representatives told us they were shocked at how little the
youth knew about the Bosnian political system. As a result,
they produced a "shake the state" campaign that includes a

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mildly provocative pamphlet on the electoral system, and a
voting game designed to quiz players on the Bosnian electoral
system. Additionally, OIA has developed a youth-targeted
platform to address perceptions that Bosnian politics is not
youth friendly and motivate young voters to go to the polls.
Like GROZD, OIA will hold public events, including "radio
after parties" in discos, cafes and bars on the Saturday
night before elections, as well as television advertisements
about the passive registration voter system.


POLITICIANS AREN'T LISTENING
--------------


7. (U) While the GROZD and OIA movements are engaging some
Bosnian citizens, they are having only a modest impact on the
national political dialogue. Leading politicians have
campaigned on the assumption that the majority of their
support will come from Bosnians voting their fears.
Representatives from Transparency International BiH (TI BiH)
explained that people do not care about the economy when they
are worried about returning to war. Over the last ten years,
appealing to a nationalist agenda has worked for most
political parties and they have little incentive to change
their approach. The centralized nature of Bosnian political
parties may also explain the lack of interest in issue-based
campaigning. Party structures are tight and without the
explicit support of individual party leaders, issues such as
those on the GROZD platform will likely not enter into the
political dialogue anytime soon. Local officials and
political party candidates throughout Bosnia told us they
support the GROZD platform, but doubt it will have much
impact because their leadership does not actively support it.
Politicians have also expressed skepticism of the NGO
community in general asserting that NGOs are motivated by
financial rewards.


APATHETIC BOSNIANS SEE LITTLE REASON TO VOTE
--------------


8. (U) According to the Bosnian Election Commission, 55
percent of eligible voters voted in the 2002 national
elections. Experts predict that this year's turnout will be
similar. According to many of our NGO interlocutors, the
Bosnian electorate is generally apathetic and uninformed. In
Zenica, a major city in central Bosnia, we were told that
only about 20 percent of city residents would be able to name
the Prime Minister. We hear repeatedly that voters have a
broad distrust of politicians, seeing them as corrupt and
unreliable. One NGO, the Center for Humane Politics (CHP),
released a study in early September claiming that ruling
parties have fulfilled only 7 percent of their election
promises since 2002. While the accountability efforts of CHP
received high profile media coverage, politicians have
largely ignored the survey, and paradoxically some Bosnians
cite it as an additional reason not to vote.


NGOs LOOK TO 2008, 2010
--------------


9. (U) GROZD, OIA and other NGOs remain focused on the
future. Their goal, particularly in the case of GROZD, is to
maintain their current momentum to affect change in the 2008
local elections and the next national elections in 2010.
Specifically, GROZD hopes to demonstrate a high level of
public support for their platform through turnout at their
September 30 rallies. If they can mobilize a substantial
amount of voters, GROZD hopes that national politicians will
both take the organization more seriously, and appreciate
that voters respond to issue-based dialogue. After the
October elections, GROZD will focus on grassroots civic
organization and building voter confidence.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) While much of the NGO story is a good one with
active, engaged groups working to educate and motivate the
Bosnian electorate, the near total lack of a meaningful
response from the political establishment is unfortunate
(though sadly typical). The Bosnian electorate's apathy
contributes to a cycle of reinforcing behavior with voters
staying away from the polls or voting along strictly ethnic
lines. Political parties, who continue to win elections

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based on nationalist campaigning, have little incentive to
change. It is interesting that all three major Bosniak
parties -- SDA, SDP and SBiH -- signed onto GROZD's platform
while neither of the two major Croat or two major Serb
parties did. This suggests that at least Bosniak politicians
may worry a little about whether substantive issues appeal to
voters, enough that they want to be on the same page as their
rival political parties. Encouraging as SDP's embrace of the
GROZD platform is, SDP voters are mainly educated urbanites
from Sarajevo and Tuzla who would have voted for SDP with or
without its support of GROZD.

MCELHANEY