BOSNIA - IVANIC SHARES THOUGHTS ON DOMESTIC ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE, L; NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR
FLORY, USNIC FOR WEBER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2011
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BX
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - IVANIC SHARES THOUGHTS ON DOMESTIC ISSUES

REF: SARAJEVO 1852

Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: At an August 16 meeting, Mladen Ivanic,
Foreign Minister and leader of the Republika Serpska-based
Party for Democratic Progress (PDP),shared with us his
thoughts on the October elections, Brcko and police reform.
Ivanic predicted that the elections would not result in major
changes in Bosnia's political landscape. He underscored his
support for the Brcko "close out" process, but complained
that too many Brcko-related decisions are taken without
consulting Bosnia's political leadership. Finally, he warned
that police reform is headed for a political disaster, which
could put off for months hopes for Bosnian-EU agreement on a
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA.) END SUMMARY.

Elections: We Already Know the Results
--------------


2. (C) Ivanic expressed concern about the level of
nationalist rhetoric in the election campaign to date. He
attributed this to fallout from the failed attempt to amend
Bosnia's constitution and to the recent release of two videos
that allegedly show war crimes committed against Serbs during
Operation Storm (reftel). Ivanic accused Party for Bosnia
and Herzegovina (SBiH) leader Haris Silajdzic of provoking an
ugly debate over constitutional reform by insisting that any
reform must abolish the entities. This prompted Dodik's talk
of a referendum in Republika Srpska (RS),he explained.
Kosovo developments could make the situation worse and end up
driving Bosnian politics for the next six weeks.


3. (C) Nonetheless, Ivanic said that the rough outlines of
post-election Bosnian politics are already apparent. The
parties that support constitutional reform are prepared to
work together - only SBiH is "an unacceptable coalition
partner," he added. He also predicted that the Croatian
Democratic Union of Bosnia-Herzegovina-1990 (HDZ-1990) could
emerge as the largest of the Croat parties. Otherwise, the
unknowns are whether the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) or
Social Democratic Party (SDP) will be the largest Bosniak
party and whether Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent
Social Democrats (SNSD) will win enough seats in the RS to
rule without coalition partners.

Brcko: Consult, Then Act
--------------


4. (C) In the wake of several critical comments by Bosnian
politicians, including Ivanic, about the Brcko Supervisor's
August 4 decision to issue an order abolishing the legal
significance of the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL),we
expressed concern about Brcko becoming a political football
during the election campaign. We also stressed that the
order was fully consistent with the Final Award and an
important milestone in the process of closing out the
supervisory regime. Ivanic responded that he supported the
order, but not how it was announced. There was no
consultation with Bosnia's political leadership, he
complained.

Police Reform: The Europeans Are Naive
--------------


5. (C) Turning to police reform, Ivanic warned that the
OHR/EU strategy for advancing police reform (i.e., presenting
a complete technical plan to the political parties after the
elections on November 30 and expecting them to embrace it)
was "dangerously naive." Dodik and RS President Cavic have
dug themselves in on police reform, and their pre-election
rhetoric against reform leaves them little room to maneuver
post-election, Ivanic continued. Ivanic argued that
political dialogue on police reform was needed now - not six
to seven months from now. He said that he had tried to
organize such talks several months ago, but his efforts had
been misinterpreted and he was criticized for it.
CEFKIN