BOSNIA: OCTOBER NATIONAL ELECTION PRIMER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SARAJEVO 001891

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ,
FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN, OSD FOR
FLORY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: OCTOBER NATIONAL ELECTION PRIMER

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1. (U) This is the first in a planned series of cables
covering themes relevant to the October 1, 2006 national
elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina.


2. (U) SUMMARY: Bosnia will hold national elections on
October 1, 2006. Bosnia's major political parties, all
ethnically-based, will compete for power at the State (i.e.,
national),entity (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Republika Srpska),and local level (Federation Cantons). At
the State and entity levels, it is unlikely that any party
will win an outright majority, which means a period of
intense negotiation among the largest parties will follow the
elections as they attempt to form coalition governments.
Since the 2002 national elections, there have been two major
changes to BiH,s election law. The first is a new direct
voter registration system, which has the potential to
increase turnout, at least in absolute terms, from the 2002
national elections. The second is a three percent threshold
for parties to be represented in State, entity and cantonal
legislatures, which should eliminate the number of small
parties represented in the State and entity legislatures. END
SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION
--------------


3. (U) On October 1, 2006 Bosnia will hold national
elections. Voters will be casting ballots for the following
offices:

-- The three members of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH)
State-level Tri-Presidency;
-- The President and Vice President of the Republika Srpska
(RS);
-- The BiH House of Representatives, the lower house of the
State-level legislature;
-- The Federation (FBiH) House of Representatives, which is
the lower house of Federation legislature;
-- Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA),the lower house
of the RS legislature; and,
-- Cantonal legislatures in all 10 Federation cantons (Note:
Cantons exist only in the Federation. Their legislatures are
unicameral bodies).

WHO IS COMPETING?
--------------


4. (U) BiH's political parties traditionally have been
affiliated with one of the three groups of constituent
peoples of BiH, often lobbying exclusively along
ethnic/nationalist lines. Although bread and butter issues,
such as unemployment, pensions and infrastructure development
matter to the Bosnian electorate, political parties often
resort to nationalist messages to mobilize voters. Judging
by political campaigning thus far, this election will be no
exception. BiH's major political parties are:

-- Party for Democratic Action (SDA): Generally pro-Western
and pro-reform Bosniak party led by President Sulejman Tihic.
The SDA has a sizable and influential Bosniak nationalist
base, which emphasizes religious identity.

-- Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH): Newly-invigorated
Bosniak nationalist party led by former PM Haris Silajdzic.
Its primary electoral issue is opposition to U.S.-backed
constitutional reform.

-- Social Democratic Party (SDP): Center-left, mostly
Bosniak party with multi-ethnic leadership, led by former PM
Zlatko Lagumdzija. Popular in Sarajevo and other urban
areas, SDP is the only major party running an issue-based
campaign.

-- Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ): The largest, most well
organized and powerful Croat political party, led by former
President Dragan Covic.

-- HDZ-1990: A new breakaway, ultra nationalist Croat party
whose leadership left HDZ in March 2006 to oppose U.S.-backed
constitutional reform, which HDZ and Covic backed.

-- Serb Democratic Party (SDS): Historically the most
popular, ultra-nationalist Serb party, SDS has emerged as a

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constructive, moderate voice under President Dragan Cavic.

-- Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD):
Center-moderate Serb party led by RS Prime Minister Milorad
Dodik.

-- Party of Democratic Progress of the Republika Srpska
(PDP): Led by FM Mladen Ivanic, PDP RS tends to focus on
economic progress in the RS. A small party, PDP could provide
the crucial margin of seats required for larger parties
seeking to form coalitions at the State level and in the RS.

-- Patriotic Block (Coalition between the Social Democratic
Union (SDU) and Bosnian Party (BOSS): Bosniak parties that
allied with SBiH and helped defeat constitutional amendments
in April, but broke away after refusing to support
Silajdzic's presidential candidacy. May play the role of
spoiler in the race for the Bosniak presidency seat.

-- Croatian Party of Rights (HSP-Djapic-Jurisic)/New Croat
Initiative (NHI) Coalition: The coalition, which unites two
smaller Croat parties, has shied away from nationalist
rhetoric (especially in comparison with the other Croat
parties),but opposed constitutional reform because it did
not eliminate the entity structure.

-- A total of 47 parties are participating in the election
(compared to 57 in the 2002 national election),but several
have formed coalitions, such as the HSP-NHI coalition listed
above, which means voters will have 36 options on polling day.

ELECTING THE BiH TRI-PRESIDENCY AND RS PRESIDENT
-------------- ---


5. (U) Voters will directly elect the three members of the
BiH Tri-Presidency, who each represent one of the
constitutionally-recognized "constituent peoples" of BiH: one
Serb, one Croat and one Bosniak (Muslim). Voters in the RS,
regardless of their ethnicity, may only vote for Serb
candidates for the Tri-Presidency Likewise, Serb candidates
for the Tri-Presidency must come from the RS. Voters in the
FBiH, again, regardless of their ethnicity, may only vote for
either a Croat or Bosniak candidate for the Tri-Presidency
Croat and Bosniak candidates must come from the FBiH. These
territorial and ethnic criteria run afoul of accepted
international electoral practices, but are enshrined in the
1995 Dayton Constitution. (Note: One of the proposed
amendments to the constitution supported by the U.S. but
defeated in the BiH parliament in April would have allowed
for citizens throughout Bosnia to choose among presidential
candidates from all ethnic groups. End Note.)


6. (U) The winners of the Tri-Presidency are determined by a
simple "first past the post" vote. Current members of the
rotating (every eight months) Tri-Presidency are Sulejman
Tihic (Bosniak, SDA),Ivo Miro Jovic (Croat, HDZ) and
Borislav Paravac (Serb, SDS). Notably, SDP has chosen not to
run a Bosniak candidate, but will run Zeljko Komsic, a Croat,
in the FBiH and a Serb, Jugoslav Jovicic in the RS. If
Komsic wins, this would mean no Tri-Presidency seat for the
traditional nationalist Croat parties, something that would
be unprecedented in post-war BiH. Other major party
candidates are:

-- Bosniak: Sulejman Tihic (SDA),Haris Silajdzic (SBiH),
Mirnes Ajanovic (Patriotic Bloc),and Muhamed Cengic
(National Party for Progress through Work, or RZB, a small
party backed by a prominent meatpacking family).
-- Croat: Ivo Miro Jovic (HDZ),Bozo Ljubic (HDZ-1990),Zeljo
Komic (SDP),and Mladen Ivankovic-Ljianovic (RZB).
-- Serb: Mladen Bosic (SDS),Nebojsa Radmanovic (SNSD),Zoran
Tesanovic (PDP),and Nedo Duric (Democratic Movement of
Srpska),and Jugoslav Jovicic (SDP).


7. (U) At the entity level, RS voters will choose the RS's
President and Vice President in a "first past the post"
ballot. The current President of the Republika Srpska is SDS
Dragan Cavic.

ELECTING STATE, ENTITY AND CANTONAL LEGISLATURES
-------------- ---


8. (U) Parties are awarded seats in the lower houses of the

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State, entity and cantonal legislatures proportionally within
individual, multi-member electoral units (i.e.,
districts/constituencies). (Note: At the State level there is
an extremely complicated system for awarding a small number
of compensatory seats within each constituency as well. End
Note). Voters may vote for a party, or they may vote for
individual candidates within the same party. Split ticket
voting (i.e., choosing individual candidates from different
political parties) is not permitted. Parties rank their
candidate lists within each electoral unit so that a vote for
the party ticket gives the candidates at the top of the list
the best chances of winning a seat. However, the open list
system creates an opportunity for voters to support
particular candidates, rather than only a party's preferred
slate. For instance, if a party wins 10 seats, but a
candidate ranked lower than position 10 on the list receives
more votes than a candidate ranked 1-10 by the party, the
lower-ranked candidate wins one of the ten seats.


9. (U) The upper houses of legislatures at all three levels,
the House of Peoples at the State level, the Federation House
of Peoples, and the RS Council of Peoples, are indirectly
elected. The popularly elected legislatures form the
governments, but at the State and entity levels, no party is
likely to win an outright majority. In these instances,
parties will have to negotiate coalitions. Once formed, the
governing coalitions in the State and Federation House of
Representatives, the RS National Assembly and cantonal
legislatures, will elect the Chairman of the Council of
Ministers (Prime Minister),the President and Prime Minister
of the Federation, the RS Prime Minister and the cantonal
prime ministers, respectively.

CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF POWER: BiH HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
-------------- --------------


10. (U) The State House of Representatives consists of 42
delegates, two-thirds of whom are elected from the FBiH, and
one-third from the RS. There are five multi-member electoral
constituencies in the FBiH and three in the RS. The current
balance of power is:

-- SDA: 9 delegates
-- SBiH: 6 delegates
-- SDS: 4 delegates
-- HDZ-1990: 4 delegates
-- SNSD: 3 delegates
-- SDP: 3 delegates
-- HDZ: 1 delegate
-- PDP: 1 delegate
-- Others parties: 11 delegates.

RS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
--------------


11. (U) The RSNA consists of 83 delegates who are elected
from the RS. There are six RSNA constituencies. The current
balance of power is:

-- SDS: 24 delegates
-- SNSD: 19 delegates
-- PDP: 9 delegates
-- SDA: 6 delegates
-- SDP: 3 delegates
-- SBiH: 3 delegates
-- Other parties: 19 delegates

(Note: Votes for Bosniak parties in the RS generally come
from Bosniak returnees and internally displaced persons
registered to vote as absentees in the RS, but who reside in
the FBiH. End Note.)

FBiH HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
--------------


12. (U) The Federation Parliament's House of Representatives
has 98 delegates who are elected by voters in the Federation.
There are 12 FBiH House of Representative constituencies.
The current balance of power is:

-- SDA: 32 delegates
-- SDP: 15 delegates
-- SBiH: 15 delegates

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-- HDZ, HNZ 8 delegates
-- HDZ-1990: 6 delegates
-- SNSD: 1 delegate
-- Other parties: 21

KEY ELECTORAL CHANGES
--------------


13. (U) Various changes to the election law, originally
passed in 2001, have rationalized aspects of BiH's electoral
system. Nevertheless, the electoral system remains
complicated and unwieldy, much like the multi-layered
government created by the Dayton Constitution. One key
change is the automatic (passive) registration of all
citizens over the age of 18 upon receipt of their national
identity card (CIPS card). The result is that there are
400,000 more registered voters this year than there were for
the 2004 municipal elections. Experts expect another 100,000
registrations prior to election day (Note: The deadline to
receive one's CIPS card and be eligible to vote is August 18.
End note.)


14. (U) A second significant change, adopted in April 2006,
requires that a party must receive at least three percent of
the votes within an electoral unit at the State, entity and
cantonal level to be awarded seats in the respective
legislature. This change will make it difficult for smaller
parties to win seats, particularly at the State level.
Smaller parties likely will retain seats in entity and/or
cantonal assemblies where their power base lies and where
crossing the three percent threshold will be less of an
obstacle. This should create a more rational slate of
parties capable of forming a State-level governing coalition,
but may result in odd power dynamics between the cantons and
the entity in the FBiH.
CEFKIN