RS PREMIER DODIK MUSES ON SERBIAN AND BIH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001776

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DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (FOOKS, MITCHELL),L/EUR
(K. JOHNSON),D (SMITH),P (BAME),S/WCI (WILLIAMSON,
BERG),INR (BRAUM),USUN (WILLSON),THE HAGUE (SCHLIDGE, C.
JOHNSON),ZAGREB (SELINGER),BELGRADE (CAMPBELL),NSC FOR
BRAUN, USNIC FOR BOALS, OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2011
TAGS: UNMIK ICTY KAWC PGOV PREL AL YI BK
SUBJECT: RS PREMIER DODIK MUSES ON SERBIAN AND BIH
POLITICS, CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

REF: SARAJEVO 1773

Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On the margins of July 28 discussions with RS
Prime Minister Milorad Dodik on ICTY cooperation (REFTEL),
Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues Clint Williamson
and CDA Cefkin also raised Kosovo and asked about the
upcoming Bosnian elections. According to Dodik, the Serbian
public had been relieved to see Montenegro gain its
independence, and Serbs already regarded Kosovo as a separate
state. Dodik said polling for the October elections showed
his SNSD party ahead in the RS, but Bosniak parties in the
Federation were running in a dead heat. His priority was to
form a stable coalition government with the SDP quickly and
move on substantive issues like constitutional reform. End
summary.


2. (C) Dodik said his contacts in Serbia believe the Serbian
public already feels as if Kosovo was a separate state.
Furthermore, when the Serbian President can be elected with
as few as 1.5 million votes, the average Serb does not want
two million Albanians living in Kosovo determining who that
is. Nevertheless, no Serbian politician believed he could
afford to accept Kosovo's secession. Kostunica thinks the
transfer of PIFWCs, particularly Mladic, to the ICTY will
improve Serbia's standing among the international community,
and consequently strengthen its bargaining position on the
final status of Kosovo. Dodik cautioned Ambassador
Williamson that it would be a mistake for the international
community to offer Serbia EU and NATO membership as the
trade-off for ceding Kosovo. He said it should not appear as
if Serbia had received compensation for 'selling' Kosovo.


3. (C) Dodik said his contacts in Serbia are also concerned
about the strength of the Serbian Radical Party. He asserted
that only the blindest Radical Party supporters would give a
second thought to Radical Party VP Toma Nikolic's recent
calls for Serbs to take up arms and defend Kosovo. Rather
than feeling vulnerable because of the Montenegrin
independence referendum, the public is actually relieved to
finally have the question settled. He suggested the same
mood could be detected with regard to Kosovo.


4. (C) Dodik said the election campaign in BiH had already
started. He noted that reliable USG-funded polling data
showed his SNSD was the frontrunner in the RS. Dodik said
that the same data showed a convoluted situation in the
Federation. Dodik said it looked as if BiH Tri-Presidency
Chairman Sulijman Tihic's Party for Democratic Action (SDA),
Zlatko Lagumdzija's Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Haris
Silajdzic's Party for BiH (SBiH) had even chances of winning.
He feared that the SDP was losing votes because of its
leader's ego.


5. (C) Dodik said his party would still like to form a
coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDP),if it has
the numbers in Parliament to do so. He stressed that the
priority was to have a stable government as soon as possible
after the election, so the government could move on to
important substantive issues, such as constitutional change.
Dodik said that all parties had "compromised" themselves a
bit to reach agreement on constitutional reforms, and all
faced some flak from supporters because of that. Dodik
feared pressure from Silajdzic, candidate for the Bosniak
seat in the Tri-Presidency, could lead Tihic to be the first
to step away from the agreement. Dodik said that while there
were some painful portions for the RS, all in all it was a
good agreement and he would stand by it.


6. (C) Comment: Dodik's comments on Serbian reaction to
Montenegro and his predictions on Kosovo may be accurate, or
he may simply saying what he things his American
interlocutors what to hear. It is notable that Dodik did not

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mention a possible RS independence referendum. Dodik's
assessment of Tihic's propensity to cave to pressure from
Silajzdic on constitutional reform is accurate, and we will
need to work hard to keep Tihic and the SDA on board with
continuing reforms after the elections, especially if he
loses his Tri-Presidency seat.
MCELHANEY