BOSNIA: COUNCIL OF EUROPE PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001479

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE (ENGLISH,
SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN,
OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: COUNCIL OF EUROPE PARLIAMENTARY
RESOLUTION PROVOKES FIERY PRE-ELECTION RHETORIC ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE INTER-ETHNIC BOUNDARY LINE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 7.


2. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The Parliamentary Assembly of
the Council of Europe's (PACE) June 29 resolution on Bosnian
Constitutional reform has been topic number one on the minds
of BiH politicians, and has dominated the media here. In
addition to a host of factual errors, the resolution takes a
position contrary to the legal finding of the Venice
Commission on the legislative package proposed in April. It
further appears to undermine the common position of the U.S.,
EU member states and EU/EC leadership of supporting the
constitutional amendments agreed by the parties in March.
While the resolution (and the memorandum by the PACE
rapporteurs attached to it),expresses regret over the
failure to pass the constitutional reforms in April, but
invites controversy because it provides a prescription for
future negotiations on constitutional reform, calling, among
other things, for the abolition of qualified majority voting
(otherwise know as entity voting) in the BiH House of
Representatives and a review of the entity structure of the
country created by the Dayton constitution. Politicians on
both sides of the political divide have been active in the
press, with Federation politicians voicing unanimous support
(although with varying degrees of enthusiasm) and RS
politicians expressing outrage and predicting doom for the
state of BiH if the PACE resolution is accepted as the model
for proceeding with constitutional reform.


3. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT, CONT. The man believed by most
to be behind the tabling of the resolution, SBiH President
Haris Silajdzic, who, for his own political benefit, has been
working since January to find a forum in the U.S. or Europe
to air his objections to the U.S.-brokered consitutional
reform package. He has finally found a willing partner in
the Council of Europe Parliament. Silajdzic has been sitting
back this week, watching the firestorm from the sidelines and
allowing others to speak for him. Given the jarring effect
the resolution has had on the already-tense Bosnian
pre-election political climate, and the lack of understanding
in Bosnia about the real role and relative influence of the
Council of Europe, we believe it would be valuable to
approach key EU members who were particularly active in
supporting the constitutional reform package rejected in
April, asking that they reiterate support for the
constitutional reform effort in order to dilute the
deleterious effect of the PACE resolution. Further, we
should alert the Europeans to the possibility that this issue
may be raised in other European bodies, like the European
Parliament, further poisoning the BiH political environment
and the prospects for continuing with our key policy goal to
move forward with constitutional reform after national
elections here. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.


4. (C) The BiH press has been dominated this week by the
uproar over a draft resolution on Bosnian Consitutional
Reform in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE)
(the resolution passed June 29 by a vote of 53 to 28).
Muslim-Croat Federation politicians unanimously lauded the
resolution, saying it provided "excellent advice" to BiH
authorities for proceeding with consitutional reform. Nijaz
Durakovic of SDU, a marginal political figure at the best of
times, but speaking with newfound authority because of his
alliance with Silajdzic's SBiH against the package of reforms
defeated in April, positively gloated in the press, saying
that he and the others who voted against the reforms had been
fully vindicated.


5. (C) Silajdzic himself has been lobbying tirelessly (and
until now, in vain) in Europe and the U.S. since January to
find a forum and an international voice to echo and validate
his objections to the constitutional reform process, and
finally found a willing partner in the PACE. In fact,
Silajdzic is the only politician singled out in the footnotes
of the report by the PACE rapporteurs attached to the
resolution as having influenced the opinion of the
rapporteurs. Silajdzic's motives for wanting to defeat the
package defeated in April are twofold: first, he was looking
for an issue that would allow him to re-enter Bosnian
politics in opposition to current Tri-Presidency member and
President of the Bosniak-nationalist SDA; and second, to
ensure that if he wins the presidency in October, the powers

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will not have been reduced (as was proposed in the April
package of amendments). Silajdzic has been silent in the
press this week, sitting back and allowing others to do the
work for him.


6. (C) RS politicians have been especially forceful in their
condemnation of the resolution, predicting doom for the state
of BiH if the resolution is used as a basis for continuing
the consitutional reform process. RS President Dragan Cavic
noted that an attack on the Dayton structure of BiH would
undermine the peace and security built on that foundation
over the last ten years. RS Prime Minister Dodik went a step
further, saying that if Dayton (and the RS) were undermined,
the people of the RS would have "no choice" but to consider
secession from BiH. After more than two weeks of slowly
dwindling stories about a possible RS independence
referendum, the PACE resolution (and Dodik's comments) have
ensured it will be a prominent public issue once again. The
re-emergence of the specter of the referendum is tailor-made
for Silajdzic and the parties who opposed the consitutional
reform package in April, helping them to "prove" that the RS
never had any intention of proceeding with real reform, and
stoking fear within the Bosniak community -- a message that
will resonate especially well in Bosniak-minority areas of
the country.


7. (C) Action request: We think it would be valuable to
approach key EU members, particularly the UK, France,
Germany, Austria, Italy and Finland (current EU President),
who were active in supporting the constitutional reform
package rejected in April to reiterate support for the
process in an attempt to dilute the deleterious effect of the
PACE resolution. The Ambassador has used the points in para
7 in his interactions with the press on this subject.



8. (U) BEGIN TALKING POINTS:

-- The resolution passed June 29 in the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has been used to
step up nationalist rhetoric in advance of the October
national elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

-- Bosnia and Herzegovina has many friends in the
International Community, and all of us will assist in the
reforms necessary to create a modern, functional state,
prepared for membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions.

-- As we have said all along, the process of constitutional
reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina must be consensus-driven.
We can all make recommendations on how to amend the
constitutio, and such advice will come from mamu sides, but
the way forward must be determined by the people of this
country and their leaders.

-- Certainly, the road to consensus is a bumpy one. But
there is simply no other way -- the international community
cannot and will not impose a constitution, nor can it force
consensus.

-- We applaud the commitment and courage of the parties who
negotiaed, compromised, and found that kind of consensus.
the Steering Board of the PIC last week spoke clearly on this
subject -- the PIC "expressed disappointment over the (BiH)
Parliamentary Assembly's failure to adopt amendments to the
constitution following sustained and constructive talks
during the past year."

-- I'm gratified that the first real effort at real
constitutional reform met such universal support in the
international community. As the PIC noted last week, Bosnia
and Herzegovina's leaders will have continued support from
the international community in this endeavor as they continue
the process after the October elections.

END TALKING POINTS.
MCELHANEY