Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SARAJEVO1464
2006-06-29 13:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA: JUNE PIC AGREES ON OHR CLOSURE TIMELINE,

Tags:  PGOV PREL BK 
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VZCZCXRO4631
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #1464/01 1801308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291308Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3861
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001464 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: JUNE PIC AGREES ON OHR CLOSURE TIMELINE,
JUNE 2007


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001464

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: JUNE PIC AGREES ON OHR CLOSURE TIMELINE,
JUNE 2007


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: At the June 22-23 meeting of Peace
Implementation Council (PIC) Steering Board Political
Directors in Sarajevo, the Steering Board agreed to begin
preparations for the closure of OHR in June, 2007. The
Steering Board agreed to "review and confirm" this decision
at the Feb/March 2007 PIC Steering Board Meeting, and
endorsed an enhanced EU Special Representative (EUSR) to
succeed OHR to coordinate meetings of the international
community and to engage with BiH counterparts on a range of
issues. (Note: HighRep Schwarz-Schilling was less nuanced at
his post-PIC press conference, stating very simply that the
PIC had "decided to close the Office of the High
Representative," although he did make clear that the decision
would be reviewed in early 2007. He further asserted that he
would be the new post-OHR EUSR, although we understand the
EU/EC has not made such a decision. End Note.) Both
President Tihic and PM Terzic pleaded with the PIC not to
announce the closure of OHR at this time, citing the upcoming
October BiH elections and the potential for regional
instability resulting from a Kosovo status decision. Terzic
went so far as to say he believed the international community
(IC) was "making a terrible mistake," and that the last time
the IC made such a mistake, 300,000 Bosnians paid with their
lives. EUR/SCE Director Charles English headed the U.S. del.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a June 22 meeting that included an appearance by
BiH President Tihic, the HighRep gave an assessment of the
status of BiH's reform process in an effort to inform the
debate over the proposed closure of OHR in June 2007 and
whether to retain the Bonn Powers beyond the end of the OHR
mandate. The HighRep noted that the process of reform had
slowed significantly in the last few months, precisely when
it should be accelerating if a Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) is to be signed with the European Commission

by the end of the year. He also listed increased ethnic
tensions in Mostar, the talk of a referendum in the Republika
Srpska following the Montenegrin independence vote and an
upcoming decision on Kosovo as potential flashpoints.
However, the HighRep argued that none of these issues, in his
view, should prevent the transition from OHR to an EUSR in
June 2007 from proceeding.


3. (C) Tihic addressed the PIC Steering Board specifically
to argue against the Steering Board announcing a plan to end
OHR. He provided six reasons why the closure of OHR should
not be announced now: 1. the Montenegrin independence
referendum (and the rhetoric of referendum, as a result, in
the RS); 2. an impending decision on Kosovo's status; 3.
the failure of constitutional reform and (in his opinion) the
opportunistic radicalization of Bosnian politics that has
resulted; 4. October's national elections; 5. war criminals
who remain at large; and 6. a (perceived) need to link
signing an EU SAA and closure of OHR. In a follow-on session
with BiH authorities June 23, PM Terzic echoed Tihic,s
concerns, going so far as to say he believed the IC was
"making a terrible mistake," and that the last time the IC
had made such a mistake, Bosnia had "paid with 300,000
lives."


4. (C) Later in the June 23 open session, the Steering Board
called on BiH officials to continue progress on reforms
necessary to conclude a Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) with the EU, particularly police reform, a
public broadcasting law and resolution of the dispute on
revenue allocation. PIC members further underlined that
despite BiH leaders' statements to the contrary, the PIC
would make no direct link between concluding SAA negotiations
and the end of the OHR mandate.


5. (C) The prevailing opinion among PIC Political Directors
at the closed session was that a June 2007 closure, and the
announcement of it now, was both reasonable and necessary if
BiH leaders are to assume full responsibility for governing
and meeting the demands of the SAA process. A final decision
to review and confirm the end of OHR would be made at the
Feb/March 2007 PIC Steering Board meeting. A decision on any
possible continued use of Bonn Powers post-OHR also would be
taken at the Feb/March 2007 meeting.


6. (C) The Steering Board welcomed the EU/EC proposal for an
enhanced EUSR to coincide with the end of OHR. This enhanced

SARAJEVO 00001464 002 OF 002


EUSR would coordinate coordinate meetings of the IC in BiH
and engage with BiH counterparts on a range of issues related
to EU integration, including constitutional reform. USDel
expressed support for an enhanced EU role in BiH post-OHR,
but also made clear that the new EUSR would not have the
authority to coordinate or speak on behalf of the
international community as had OHR.


7. (C) In its communique, the PIC Steering Board announced
it had agreed to begin preparations to close OHR in June

2007. HighRep Schwarz-Schilling was more direct in his
post-PIC press conference, stating that the PIC had "decided
to close the Office of the High Representative", although he
made clear the plan to review the decision in early 2007 (a
fact that was reflected in the media). He further asserted
that he would be the new EU Special Representative (EUSR),
although we understand the EU/EC has not decided on such an
appointment.


8. (C) COMMENT: The PIC Steering Board,s decision to move
ahead with OHR,s phase out is an important one for BiH to
truly move beyond Dayton and take on full responsibility for
its own affairs. Tihic,s and Terzic,s dire predictions
notwithstanding, the February/March 2007 &review date8 will
provide an opportunity to reassess this decision based on the
prevailing conditions on the ground and in the region. In
the meantime, we will continue to work to buck up worried
Bosniaks and reassure them that the closure of OHR is merely
another step forward on the road to Bosnia's transition to
becoming a modern European state. The backdrop of a
disengaged and ineffective HighRep should only serve to
strengthen the argument that it is time to move on. The
internal EU/EC discussion over the mandate of the new EUSR
has only begun and will bear careful watching.
Schwarz-Schilling's obdurate insistence on spelling out "his"
future mandate may only harden EC resolve to water it down.
END COMMENT.


9. (U) This cable was cleared by Charles English, EUR/SCE
Director.
MCELHANEY