BOSNIA: AFTER MONTENEGRO, BIH SERBS TAKE UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001231

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER,
GREGORIAN, OSD FOR FLORY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: AFTER MONTENEGRO, BIH SERBS TAKE UP
REFERENDUM THEME

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1095

B. SARAJEVO 1194

Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney, for reasons 1.4 (B) AND
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of the Montenegro referendum,
Bosnian Serbs have raised the possibility of a vote here that
would determine whether the Republika Srpska (RS) remains
part of the Bosnian state. Statements May 27 by RS Premier
Milorad Dodik speculating on the possibility of a referendum
on RS independence have radicalized Bosnian political
rhetoric and risk further alienating him from the Office of
the High Representative (OHR) and other International
Community (IC) representatives in Bosnia. Reactions from all
sides to Dodik's statements have been predictable, if
problematic in their own right, ranging from Bosniak Muslim
pundits impugning the U.S.-brokered constitutional reform
efforts as separatist, to increased attention to the Serb
radical fringe, to talk within the Office of the High
Representative (OHR) of use of the Bonn Powers. Following
Dodik's statements, the Ambassador warned him of the
corrosive effect of referendum comments, reiterating a
previous message that Kosovo's status (as well as the
Montenegrin issue) should be kept out of the Bosnian
electoral campaign. The Embassy continues to liaise with
local politicians and internationals to mitigate the results
of Dodik's remarks and to prevent, as much as possible, a
recurrence. END SUMMARY.

DODIK'S REFERENDUM MUSINGS...


2. (SBU) In a wide-ranging interview in Sarajevo's
"Oslobodjenje" May 27, RS Premier Milorad Dodik criticized
the international community and its positions on a number of
issues, including police reform, and broached the
hypersensitive issue of independence referenda in the
Balkans. Dodik greeted the results of Montenegro's recent
referendum and asked "If one party has the right to a
referendum, why shouldn't others?" Dodik opined that the
referendum "could be a good model to solve the fate of
Kosovo" and added that Montenegro's referendum could "show
the way how the democratic process of splitting should be
promoted," something he described as "instructive for Bosnia
and Herzegovina."

... LEAD TO SHARP REACTIONS FROM LOCALS, IC


3. (SBU) Predictably in this pre-election period, local
reactions to Dodik's message were swift and fierce. Bosniak
politicians and pundits assailed Dodik's remarks, saying they
revealed his true separatist intentions. Haris Silajdzic's
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) called for a
referendum on the level of the whole of BiH to dissolve the
RS, while representatives of the Bosniak Party for Democratic
Action in the RS National Assembly (RSNA) said that Serbs
were free to leave BiH, but not to take the land. One
journalist in Sarajevo's "Oslobodjenje" used Dodik's remarks
to attack the USG-brokered constitutional reform project,
saying that Dodik's interest in pushing for constitutional
changes was to prepare the ground for his referendum plans.
In the RS, meanwhile, radical and nationalist fringe
politicians like the pro-independence "Serbian National
Movement - The Choice is Yours" supported Dodik's statements
and capitalized on them through increased attention and press
coverage.


4. (C) International reaction was immediate, as well.
Principal Deputy High Representative Lawrence Butler publicly
asked Dodik to explain his remarks, while High Representative
Christian Schwarz-Schilling, in a visit to Belgrade,
reasserted that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
BiH were not up for a vote. Ambassadors accredited to
Sarajevo were particularly upset with Dodik's pointed remarks
questioning the motives for their interventions in BiH. Some
OHR and IC representatives even spoke openly of the
possibility of using the High Representative's Bonn Powers
either to avoid a referendum or to punish Dodik.

AMBASSADOR PRIVATELY REBUKES DODIK


5. (C) In a private conversation May 29, the Ambassador
rebuked Dodik for his irresponsible remarks, noting with
particular dismay how they came just days after his request

SARAJEVO 00001231 002 OF 002


not to raise the issue of Kosovo in the BiH press. The
Ambassador warned of the corrosive effects of such statements
both within BiH and for Dodik's relations with the IC, noting
that the chief beneficiaries of the furor caused by such
statements were radical Bosniak politicians like SBiH's Haris
Silajdzic. Dodik offered no defense for the referendum
remarks, though he said that he hadn't intended to group the
Ambassador with other chiefs of mission he referred to
negatively in the article.


6. (C) Subsequent to the release of the "Oslobodjenje" piece,
Dodik attempted to walk back from the referendum statements
somewhat in an article published in the May 28 "Nezavisne
Novine." In this piece Dodik said that the question of "BiH:
Yes or No?" had been answered long ago, but that the
question of what form BiH would take remained. RS President
Dragan Cavic largely steered clear of the debate, while
offering an oblique public criticism of Dodik for promoting a
policy (the referendum) that he could not deliver. Dodik
surrogates, meanwhile, have continued to walk his statements
back. The leader of Dodik's Association of Independent
Social Democrats in the RSNA, Krstan Simic, said in the May
31 "Glas Srpske" that Dodik, as a legalist, would not
organize any referendum, and only mentioned it as a
possibility.


7. (C) COMMENT: In this pre-election period (national
elections will take place in October),we expect this will
not be the last we hear of Serb politicians trying to take
advantage of separatist sentiment. As Kosovo negotiations
proceed this year, the political temperature will likely
rise, with Serbs in BiH calling for "the same right" to leave
Bosnia as Kosovars are demanding from Serbia. Despite our
early warnings to Serb politicians not to use Kosovo, or
Montenegro for that matter, to advance their election
fortunes, there will be a continuing low-level drumbeat on
"self-determination" as long as the Kosovo status process
goes on. As we have already been doing publicly and
privately, we will need to tamp this down. High
Representative Schwarz-Schilling has jumped the gun a bit
(see septel reporting) by implying the use of extraordinary
Bonn powers against the Serbs if they pursue the referendum
course; his reaction demonstrates the jitters of the
international community about spillover into Bosnia of events
elsewhere in the Western Balkans. END COMMENT.
MCELHANEY