BOSNIA: POLICE REFORM FOUNDERING ON ROCKY SHORES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001148

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR (DICARLO),D (SMITH),P (BAME),EUR/SCE
(ENGLISH, SAINZ, FOOKS),EUR/ACE (VISOCAN, LONGI),S/CT
(BLACK),S/WCI (HODGKINSON),INR, THE HAGUE (JOHNSON),NSC
FOR BRAUN, VIENNA FOR LEGATT (DIETDERICH),OSD FOR FLORY,
USDOJ FOR CRIMINAL DIVISION - ICITAP (DELCORE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER KCRM KJUS BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: POLICE REFORM FOUNDERING ON ROCKY SHORES

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B),(D)



1. (C) SUMMARY. On May 3, the Police Reform Directorate
(PRD),by majority vote, approved a plan for a a single
police structure consisting of two tiers (state and local)
with budget and legislation at the state-level (BiH
Parliament). Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik has
publicly opposed the non-consensus decision, a stance backed
by the RS National Assembly on May 10. The European
Commission, however, seems ready to show some flexibility,
including on the issue of cross-entity police districts. In
discussions with the Ambassador, Dodik argued that he lacked
a single European interlocutor and needed to preserve a role
for the RS entity in policing. But he could accept certain
responsibilities at the state level, including the national
police budget. The EU Police Mission plans to keep the PRD
chugging along with the goal of producing a reform plan. But
it may be that EU flexibility (already visible),rather than
RS concessions, is the key to eventual agreement. End
Summary.

MACHINATIONS OF THE POLICE REFORM DIRECTORATE (PRD) AND
BOSNIAN SERB OPPOSITION


2. (C) The PRD, which has been meeting since the end of
January, held its ninth and tenth meetings on April 26th and
May 3rd. The previous eight meetings resulted in little
substantive debate or resolution. On April 26th, the Bosniak
and Bosnian Croat members reached a consensus -- without the
Bosnian Serbs -- on a single police structure consisting of
two tiers (state and local) with budget and legislation at
the state-level (BiH Parliament). This model eliminated any
meaningful role for the two entities and ten cantons in
policing. This was also a model supported by the EU Police
Mission (EUPM) and the EC. Because of RS opposition,
however, the vote was postponed until May 3rd. On May 3rd,
the PRD issued an "opinion" supporting the two-tiered model
with seven votes in favor, the RS opposed, and the
state-level police director Novic (Serb) abstaining.


3. (C) RS PM Dodik, backed by RS President and SDS leader
Cavic, has stated since that he cannot agree to a plan that
would eliminate the RS Interior Ministry. He also has
challenged the EU's interpretation of the earlier "police
reform principles" agreement signed last October, refusing to
accept any PRD decision not reached by consensus (rather than
majority vote). On May 10, the RSNA passed a resolution
backing Dodik's stance.

OHR AND EC CAVING


4. (C) While the High Rep sent a letter to Dodik on April 27
noting "growing concern in Brussels about some of the
positions taken by the RS on police reform," over the last
month OHR and the EC have begun to reconsider. Among
themselves, it appears thay have already agreed to one of
Dodik's demands -- no cross-entity police districts. EC
Ambassador Humphreys has told us that the EC is concerned
about Serbia and Montenegro (SAM) Stabilization and
Association (SAA) negotiations and does not want to face
political crises in two countries at this time. As a result,
the EC does not want to stop the Bosnian SAA talks -- the
likely cause of their increased flexibility vis-a-vis RS
demands.

AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH DODIK


5. (C) On May 16th, the Ambassador met with Dodik to discuss
a wide range of issues including police reform (septel).
Dodik argued that he lacked a real interlocutor from the EU
side. In his view, he has presented his ideas to Humphreys,
to OHR, and to individual EU Chiefs of Mission, he claimed,
without getting a sense of their real bottom line -- either
collectively or individually. Dodik told the Ambassador that
he had no problem with one police law at the state level, nor
did he have any problem with a single budget at the state
level -- provided funds were passed through RS structures in
accordance with designated line items. Dodik also wants to
preserve a role for the RS entity in policing, with two or

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three police zones contained within the current boundaries of
the RS.


6. (C) Dodik told the Ambassador that he had criticized the
police directorate's non-consensus procedure because any
report adopted in that way would never be passed by the
members of entity and state parliaments. The Ambassador
countered that Dodik was arguing for an RS veto (Dodik
claimed he was not). However, Dodik assured the Ambassador
that he would not pull his representative out of the
directorate, nor would he reject its decisions a priori.

COMMENT


7. (C) With general elections approaching in October, it
will be hard for Dodik (or any RS politician) to show
flexibility on this hot-button issue in the coming months.
But he may not have to. Recent discussion among Steering
Board Ambassadors indicates that the Europeans -- with their
focus on stability -- are willing to show considerable
flexibility themselves when it comes to interpreting whether
an agreement meets EU standards. Dodik's determination to
preserve the RS entity's role in policing even if this means
stalling the SAA talks has been more successful than it would
have been a year ago; EU countries may well be satisfied with
half a loaf.


8. (C) Despite calls by some to postpone further talks until
after the October elections (violating the timeline laid out
in last year's political agreement),EUPM plans to keep the
PRD chugging along with the goal of producing a reform plan.
It may well be that the problem is solved not by RS
concessions, but by the EU moving the goalposts to construct
a more playable field. End Comment.
MCELHANEY