POLLSTER GIVES AlCKMIN A FIGHTING CHANCE IN ELECTIONS, SEES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000968

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON BR
SUBJECT: POLLSTER GIVES AlCKMIN A FIGHTING CHANCE IN ELECTIONS, SEES
LIMITED REFORMS IN A SECOND LULA GOVERNMENT



1. SUMMARY: Marcia Cavallari Nunes, Executive Director of the
prestigious "IBOPE" polling firm, believes opposition candidate
Geraldo Alckmin still has a chance to deny President Lula a
first-round electoral victory, but that it would require an
unpredictable combination of events between now and October 1. She
attributed Alckmin's failure to connect with the electorate to his
ponderous, deliberate speaking style and complex parsing of issues,
which voters have no patience for. If he decides to go on the
attack against Lula, as many of his supporters have been urging him
to do, he needs to do so carefully, as polls show voters often
resent and react against negative campaigning. Cavallari noted the
manner in which Lula has distanced his campaign from that of his
Workers' Party (PT) and predicted that the PT will suffer losses in
Congressional elections, while the centrist Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party (PMDB) will gain seats and exercise considerable
influence both in Congress and in a second Lula administration.
Assuming he is re-elected, she said Lula may be able to enact some
form of tax reform and industrial relations reform, both of which
would bring tangible benefits to voters, but, despite his campaign
promises, doubted he would be able to bring about political reform
due to entrenched interests and a lack of consensus among the
political class. END SUMMARY.


2. A series of recent polls show President Lula holding steady and
even slightly increasing his numbers and suggest that if the
election were held today, he would win in a first round with a
little more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast. The recent
IBOPE (Brazilian Institute for Public Opinion and Education) poll
also reported increasing levels of voter alienation; 57 percent
indicated they would probably not vote were it not required by law.
(NOTE: While voting is mandatory, some voters stay away from the
polls regardless, and others simply submit blank or "spoiled"
ballots.) Cavallari cited a number of reasons: Elections in the
past were often enlivened by the PT's strong militancy; now,
however, after four years at the helm of the federal government, and
still reeling from the political corruption scandal that costs it
much of its leadership, the PT is increasingly viewed by voters as
just another party like all the others, no longer inspiring either
enthusiastic support or passionate opposition. The fact that 20 of
27 gubernatorial races involve incumbents running for re-election,
many of them poised to win in the first round, is another cause of
voter apathy.

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ALCKMIN CAN STILL TURN IT AROUND
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3. Nevertheless, Cavallari believes many voters remain engaged and
interested, and that Alckmin still has time to improve his
performance enough to deny Lula a first-round victory and force a
runoff. Enough undecided voters, and voters whose current support
for Lula is tepid and subject to change, are still out there to be
tapped by Alckmin under the right circumstances. Given that
economic issues are such a strong determinant of voter preferences
and that Lula's strong position in the polls is based substantially
on a general satisfaction with the economy, any economic bad news
that affects a large number of people or undermines confidence could
still hurt Lula. The recently announced layoffs at Volkswagen in
Sao Bernardo do Campo(which the company subsequently rescinded) and
newly released economic figures showing lower GDP growth than
anticipated, while in themselves not sufficient, are examples of
events that might provoke some voters to change their minds. New
evidence of corruption on Lula's part, should it emerge, could also
diminish his lead, but Cavallari cautioned that most voters are
tired of the scandals, and the only thing likely to rouse their
indignation would be evidence of theft of public funds for personal
gain.


4. Cavallari attributed Alckmin's failure thus far to connect with
voters to his bland personal style and manner of communication.
Because he addresses issues in such a measured, deliberate manner,
full of pauses, many observers perceive his message as programmed or
canned (though, ironically, it isn't; this is simply the way he
talks). In contrast, Lula's spontaneous, relaxed style goes down
well even with voters who disagree with the substance of his

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message. For this reason, Cavallari continued, when the scandal
broke in mid-2005 and was laid at his doorstep, important elements
of the public were inclined to protect him and even make excuses for
him. This, combined with the opposition's possibly fatal error of
not knocking him out while they had him on the ropes, enabled him to
survive, and after a difficult period he was able in January to
begin a recovery that surprised many. This apparent spontaneity,
however, carries risks of his own; on several occasions, Lula has
committed gaffes or made inaccurate, possibly even dishonest,
assertions which have made him look bad; too many more of those in
the last month of the campaign could also damage him in the polls
and make him look less unbeatable. Observers have commented on
Lula's lack of a "self-censorship" mechanism.

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TO ATTACK OR NOT TO ATTACK?
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5. Up to now, Cavallari noted, Alckmin has avoided attacking Lula
directly, both because it is incompatible with his personal style
and because he fears it might backfire on him. However, as he
continues to trail and as time runs short, more and more of his
supporters are urging him to take the gloves off. Any attempt to
attack Lula on ethical grounds, however, needs to be carefully
planned and mixed with more positive messages, because many
lower-class people identify with Lula and many voters are alienated
by negative campaigning. (NOTE: During the week of August 28,
Alckmin's speeches and those of his supporters were more combative
in tone, and his television advertising, which up to now had focused
on his biography and accomplishments, made explicit references to
the scandals that have plagued the Lula administration. One PSDB
insider told us privately that he expected this more aggressive
approach to increase in intensity over the next few weeks, while at
the same time the PSDB would release, piece by piece, its detailed
government program and contrast it with the PT's government program,
which was published August 29. END NOTE.)

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CHALLENGES IN A SECOND LULA ADMINISTRATION
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6. Cavallari commented on the way Lula has campaigned almost
without reference to the PT, which was such a visible part of all
his previous campaigns. He evidently believes -- rightly -- that
the party is damaged goods, more a hindrance than a help in
attracting votes, and he has done little or nothing to help PT
gubernatorial or congressional candidates. The resulting lack of
coattails, combined with the party's already damaged reputation,
will hurt the party in the Congressional races, she said. The PT
will almost inevitably elect fewer than its current 81 Federal
Deputies; the only question is how bad a loss it will suffer. The
PMDB, on the other hand, is on track to elect as many as 15
Governors, and its strength in so many states will propel it to an
increase over its current total of 79 Deputies. (Some observers
believe it will win up to 100 seats.) Alckmin's PSDB will also
likely lose some seats, further strengthening the PMDB's position.
This will complicate Lula's task of governing. He can appoint PMDB
members to Cabinet and other important positions (as he has
indicated a willingness to do),but even so, he will have a
difficult time garnering the fragmented party's united support for
his initiatives. As many smaller parties lose their viability as a
result of failing to meet the five percent threshold mandated by the
"Barrier Clause" in effect for the first time this year, a key
question will be where their elected members migrate to and what
dynamic emerges in a new Chamber and Senate composed of only about
seven political parties as opposed to the current 15-17.


7. In this new setting, Cavallari predicted that Lula may be able
to push through some limited tax reform or industrial relations
reform, but that the political reform he has promised will be very
difficult to achieve, because there exists little consensus as to
what it should encompass. (NOTE: Curiously, Lula's government
program does not even mention tax reform or social security reform.
END NOTE.)


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COMMENT
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8. While Alckmin's supporters have pinned their hopes on the
subsidized television advertising (which began August 15),polls
indicate that a large portion of the electorate is not even
watching, and that so far it is not changing voters' preferences.
It will be interesting to see if this remains the case as Alckmin's
ads attempt to target Lula more directly. END COMMENT.


9. This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia.

MCMULLEN