MEDIA REACTION: MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL/HIZBULLAH COMBAT;

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000893

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL/HIZBULLAH COMBAT;
WESTERN HEMISPHERE: CUBA: CASTRO'S HEALTH; SAO PAULO



1. "No One Won"

Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (8/15)
editorialized: "Following a month of fighting and more than a
thousand deaths, a ceasefire has finally been established between
the Israeli Army and Lebanese militia Hizbullah. Both were
defeated.... The Israelis have found out that to partially leave the
West Bank and build a fence surrounding the Palestinians is not
enough to protect them from enemies. Hizbullah's situation is not
better.... The militia suffered major losses.... It is true that the
Lebanese united around the group, which symbolized the resistance
against the attacker. But it will not take much time until
two-thirds of non-Shiite Lebanese begin to realize that they were
attacked because of Hizbullah. It will not be a surprise if, when
things become calm, internal pressures towards disarming the group
emerge. Let's hope that their respective defeats are able to lead
both sides to take concrete steps towards peace."


2. "War In Lebanon Will Cost Dearly To All"

An editorial in business-oriented Valor Economico (8/15) opined: "If
unexpected developments - always a risky premise in the Middle East
- do not occur, 15,000 Lebanese soldiers and a UN 15,000-troop
multilateral force will replace Israeli soldiers who will have to
withdraw.... The effects of the use of devastating force by Israel
are far from being restricted to the physical destruction of
Lebanon.... Israel counted on the US's total support and the
sympathy of the immense majority of Israelis to invade Lebanon. This
support was not sufficient because the military mission's goal of
destroying Hizbullah's operational capability was unrealistic....
Supported by Syria and Iran, Hizbullah will be a key factor during
the ceasefire.... Hizbullah seems to be stronger and more united
than the Lebanese political force, which will hardly impose its will
on the group. If the Israeli rightwing becomes strengthened and the
trends of destruction of Lebanon are confirmed, then another failure
of US policy for the region will occur."


3. "Rural Cuba"

Agronomist Xico Graziano commented in center-right O Estado de S.
Paulo (8/15): "With Fidel Castro's illness, no one knows what may
happen when Cuban socialism collapses.... Insecurity threatens Cuba.
The loss of the commander may open the door to expectations and
there is no feasible way to meet them. There will be popular
frustration. The island will need help. Like a vulture, Chvez, the
Venezuelan caudillo, has already offered his petrodollars to buy
bankrupted sugar plants. Poor Cuba. It gets rid of Fidel Castro's
long and monotonous speeches, but risks falling into the retrograde
claws of Bolivar's reincarnation. It is too unlucky."

McMullen