MEDIA REACTION: GWOT: AIRLINE TERROR PLOT; WESTERN

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: GWOT: AIRLINE TERROR PLOT; WESTERN
HEMISPHERE: CUBA: CASTRO'S HEALTH; SAO PAULO



1. "The Right Way To Fight Terror"

The lead editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (8/12)
maintained: "Almost five years from the unprecedented September 11
attacks, only a few things in the world today are as clear as the
futility and the boomerang effect of the war the US under the Bush
administration has declared on terrorism. After the British secret
service succeeded in aborting a plan to explode a dozen of
commercial flights on their way to the US, the obvious correctness
of the alternative way to fight the terrorist threat - not with
bombs, but with continuous police and intelligence action supported
by legal means - has become equally evident.... In the current war,
planned violence and suicide attempts by enemies of civilized
societies result not only in death and destruction, but produce
collective hysteria, the trampling of liberal values in the name of
defending them against barbarism, and manipulation of the public
opinion by authoritarian leaning governments such as the Bush
administration."


2. "Our Man In Havana"

Economist Eliana Cardoso, author of the book 'Cuba after Communism'
(MIT Press, 1992),commented in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo
(8/14): "Fidel Castro overthrew Fulgencio Batista's dictatorship in
1959 to replace it with another dictatorship.... The old tyrant's
methods still have a follower in Hugo Chvez and his unquenchable
thirst for power.... Cuba's current economic situation is improving
thanks to the high price of nickel, tourism income and Hugo Chvez
assistance.... But the commander is dying. His legacy is still
uncertain. An idyllic scenario would be that of Cuba's gradual
reinsertion into the Latin American community, with the introduction
of democratic elections supported by economic growth. However, even
those who believe in Raul Castro's pragmatism doubt that he is
planning a democratic transition.... Some say Raul is a good
administrator and, like Chinese Deng Xiaoping, he could open and
reinforce the economy even while preserving a regime that does not
respect human rights. But Raul is too old and does not have Fidel's
popularity. Speculations about his succession will soon begin. It is
hard to believe that an island less than a 30-minute flight from
Miami will continue to be impermeable to political changes following
the dictator's death.... The Cuban economy needs shock therapy, and
its success depends on the US's change of posture from confrontation
to cooperation. The first US step should be lifting the commercial
embargo. Such embargos generally do not meet their goals and, in the
case of Cuba, they do not destabilize Castro, but only help to
mobilize the world's sentiment against the US.... A second step
would be Cuba's admission as a member of the World Bank and the
IMF.... The transition of Central Europe's communist nations
indicates that there is life after communism."
McMullen