MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: LEFTIST LEANINGS IN

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000842

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: LEFTIST LEANINGS IN
LATIN AMERICA, HUGO CHAVEZ; GLOBAL ECONOMY: DOHA ROUND; SAO PAULO



1. "Alan Garcia's Inauguration"

Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (8/2) editorialized: "It's
indicative that two absences have been particularly noticed in the
inauguration ceremony of Peruvian President Alan Garcia, which was
attended by nine leaders of the region. The most shocking one was
that of Argentine President Nestor Kirchner. According to the Buenos
Aires correspondent, the absence has been attributed in Argentina to
a request that Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez made to Kirchner.
Given Argentina's level of dependence on the Venezuelan treasury and
the services Kirchner has provided to Chvez, such a version is very
plausible. But Hugo Chvez's absence in Garcia's inauguration was
perfectly normal. The Venezuelan President clearly interfered in the
Peruvian electoral process, favoring populist candidate Ollanta
Humala, with whom, along with his allies Fidel Castro and Evo
Morales, he intended to strengthen an anti-American front....
Certainly not due to a coincidence, at the same time of Garcia's
inauguration Chvez was touring East European and Asian nations. In
Russia he confirmed a USD 3 billion acquisition of aircrafts,
helicopters and military equipment.... Given his confrontationist
and bellicose rhetoric, it is entirely possible that Chvez's arms
acquisition will cause an arms race in Venezuela's neighboring
nations."


2. "The 'Final Effort'"

Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo
commented (8/2): "Eight months was the deadline that USTR Susan
Schwab established for the success or failure of the emergency
operation to save the Doha Round, following a meeting with Brazil's
Foreign Minister Celso Amorim in Rio de Janeiro.... President Bush's
mandate to negotiate trade agreements will expire in July 2007....
Without such a special power -- it is unlikely that Bush will obtain
a TPA renewal from the Congress - multilateral trade negotiations
will be unfeasible.... The problem is that 'minimum consensus' can
mean only another name for what has been called as 'light Doha." It
is an 'agreement' aimed more at alleviating the total demoralization
of the optimistic leaders who participated in the talks than at
opening major markets to less developed nations.... Therefore, it is
more realistic to expect, if not a total fiasco, at least an
unsatisfactory solution for Brazil's interests as a result of the
current attempts to save Doha."


3. "A Light Or A Postponed Doha?"

University Professor Marcos Sawaya Jank maintained in center-right O
Estado de S. Paulo (8/2): "It is clear that the US is not willing to
make any effort to reduce its agricultural subsidies. A different
situation may take place in 2008. First, because there will be
presidential elections in November and Bush will leave the office.
Everyone hopes that the new president will be less unilateralist. If
the Middle East's political situation deteriorates - and everything
indicates it will - there are reasons to believe that the US will
look for multilateral solutions. Doha's ambitious mandate was a
direct consequence of the commotion caused by Sept. 11. Second, the
US will approve its new Farm Act, now in a context of serious fiscal
deficit.... But the most important fact that will push an
agricultural reform in the US is the dispute involving cotton
subsidies conducted by Brazil. So far, the US's implementation of
the WTO's decision has been only partial and cosmetic. Brazil has
postponed the adoption of tougher attitudes on this issue that
should include immediate retaliations. Actually, the case of cotton
opens doors for several similar disputes, since the condemned
mechanisms are the same applied in relation to soybeans, corn, rice
and other grains."
McMullen