Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SAOPAULO810
2006-07-28 16:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Sao Paulo
Cable title:  

IMPROVING POLL NUMBERS BUOY OPTIMISM OF ALCKMIN'S CAMPAIGN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR ECON EAGR BR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4353
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0810/01 2091636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281636Z JUL 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5472
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6546
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2690
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2365
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2086
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1811
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2926
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7311
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3053
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2519
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000810 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR MORONESE, RIVERA, MERVENNE
NSC FOR FEARS
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/SHUPKA
TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND DDOUGLASS
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID/W FOR LAC/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EAGR BR
SUBJECT: IMPROVING POLL NUMBERS BUOY OPTIMISM OF ALCKMIN'S CAMPAIGN
COORDINATOR

REF: (A) BRASILIA 1441; (B) SAO PAULO 734;

(C) SAO PAULO 647

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

-------
SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000810

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR MORONESE, RIVERA, MERVENNE
NSC FOR FEARS
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/SHUPKA
TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND DDOUGLASS
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID/W FOR LAC/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EAGR BR
SUBJECT: IMPROVING POLL NUMBERS BUOY OPTIMISM OF ALCKMIN'S CAMPAIGN
COORDINATOR

REF: (A) BRASILIA 1441; (B) SAO PAULO 734;

(C) SAO PAULO 647

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Opposition presidential candidate Geraldo Alckmin's
campaign coordinator told Consul General that the campaign is coming
together well and that support for Alckmin is growing, as reflected
in recent polls. Joao Carlos Meirelles said that critical alliances
at the state level are firming up. The campaign will publish its
comprehensive platform and government program on August 9 and then
flood the airwaves when the period of free radio and television
advertising begins August 15. Meirelles acknowledged that social
programs like "Bolsa Familia" give President Lula an advantage among
lower-class voters but believes Lula also has significant
vulnerabilities, notably among farmers hurt by the Lula
administration's agricultural policies. The election, he said, will
go to a second round, in which "voters don't choose a person, they
reject a person," and Lula's high negatives will doom him. This
optimistic scenario is only to be expected from Meirelles, who was
talking positively even back at the beginning of June (ref C),when
Lula's lead in the polls exceeded 25 points, but he is likely
correct in predicting that Alckmin will narrow the gap between now
and the October 1 first-round balloting, and that the second round
opens up new possibilities. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Consul General (CG) and Poloff met July 27 with Joao Carlos
de Souza Meirelles, overall campaign coordinator for opposition
candidate Geraldo Alckmin (see ref C). Meirelles said the campaign
was going very well and repeated some of his observations from our

previous meeting with him. The polls, he reiterated, are merely
exercises in name recognition, and Lula's name is universally known
in Brazil, especially because of the constant media exposure he has
received in recent months. In that context, the improvement in
Alckmin's numbers -- in early June, polls showed him trailing by
25-30 points; now it's closer to 15 -- is surprising and
encouraging. Meirelles estimated that perhaps 40 percent of the
population nationwide now knows who Alckmin is, with much work
remaining to be done in the northeastern and the center-west
regions.

--------------
ALLIANCES
--------------


3. (SBU) Meirelles described the consolidation of alliances at the
state level, which he said will be key to electoral success.
Alckmin's Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB) is allied with the
Liberal Front Party (PFL) and the smaller Popular Socialist Party
(PPS). The alliance is particularly strong in the densely populated
south and much of the southeast. In some states - he mentioned
Santa Catarina as an example - they have an ad hoc alliance with the
centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB). Meirelles
acknowledged problems in certain states, notably Maranhao in the
northeast and Rio de Janeiro. Nevertheless, he contrasted the
alliance's strength with Lula's coalition, which in addition to
Lula's Workers Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT) includes only
the Communists and the small Brazilian Republican Party (PRB) of
Vice President Alencar. The PT was not even able to bring its
traditional Socialist allies on board. While Lula himself is
broadly popular, Meirelles said, his own party is not particularly
strong even in the northeast ("only one governorship, in Piaui, and
they might not hold that"),and his alliance is not likely to be

SAO PAULO 00000810 002 OF 003


able to deliver votes, especially with his own party's image so
badly tarnished by scandal.


4. (SBU) On or about August 9, the campaign will publish its
comprehensive platform and governing program, covering some thirteen
areas (e.g., health, education, macroeconomy, telecommunications,
foreign policy). Thirteen working groups have been developing the
program for months; since late June, when the alliance was
formalized, PFL and PPS representatives have been participating in
the working groups as well. Alckmin delivered an abbreviated
version of the government program in his June 11 speech accepting
the PSDB nomination (ref B),but the platform will describe in
detail how his government will achieve its objectives. Many
elements of the program will be featured in the free radio and
television advertising spots that begin August 15 and run through
the rest of the campaign. It is also safe to assume, Meirelles
said, that these spots will target corruption in the Lula
administration (the "mensalao" scandal) as well as what he
characterized as incompetence and "immobilism."

--------------
SOCIAL PROGRAMS
--------------


5. (SBU) CG asked how the Alckmin campaign planned to counteract
Lula's advantage in the northeast generated in large part by social
programs, especially "Bolsa Familia." This government stipend
program now reaches more than eleven million poor families, many of
them in the impoverished northeast; numerous pollsters and political
analysts have asserted that Lula can count on the votes of Bolsa
Familia recipients, as well as those who have benefited from the
sharp increase in the minimum wage. Meirelles noted that Bolsa
Familia was a PSDB program, begun during the administration of
Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC),which the PSDB still supports. He
expressed the view that the population that benefits from the
program is volatile in its voting habits and will not base its vote
solely on its receiving a handout from the federal government. He
noted further that on August 4, the Alckmin campaign has planned an
event in Recife unveiling a program for a new northeast,
highlighting its plans for investment in the region. Finally, he
stressed the key role of municipalities, especially Mayors, in
administering the Bolsa Familia program, and suggested that local
alliances may prove more important than the federal government's
role in determining voter preferences. Ultimately, he acknowledged,
Lula would likely defeat Alckmin in the northeast, but not by nearly
as wide a margin as polls currently suggest, while Alckmin held a
large advantage in the south and southeast. Alckmin not only still
enjoys strong popularity in the most populous state, Sao Paulo, but
will benefit from a strong gubernatorial candidate in Jose Serra.
Likewise, in the second most populous state, Minas Gerais, he will
benefit from the coattails of PSDB leader Aecio Neves, who appears a
shoo-in for re-election AS Governor. Alckmin would likely run well
in the rural Center-West as well, he said, where "policy errors
committed by the Lula administration" had led to an agricultural
crisis. On the other hand, Meirelles acknowledged problems in the
populous state of Rio de Janeiro which would need to be addressed in
order to boost Alckmin's votes there.

--------------
LULA'S POSSIBLE VULNERABILITIES
--------------


6. (SBU) Asked about the impact on the campaign of third-party
candidate Heloisa Helena (who got about ten percent in recent
polls),Meirelles said it was good for Alckmin. A leftist who had
been expelled from the PT, she would take some votes away from Lula
and would gain other votes that otherwise would have been null or

SAO PAULO 00000810 003 OF 003


blank. CG asked also about the role of Lula's former Chief of
Staff, Jose Dirceu, who recently met with the Landless Movement
(MST). Meirelles said that having an individual like Dirceu, who
had resigned from government in disgrace and then been expelled from
Congress and deprived of his political rights, representing the
ruling party in these core social movements, created a very bad
image. He also claimed that at the recent Mercosul Summit in
Cordoba, Argentina, Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez had expressed
support for Lula's re-election. This, he said, was like Chavez's
support for Humala in Peru and Lopez Obrador in Mexico, something
that was likely to boomerang on Lula, and certainly something the
opposition was going to take advantage of at the opportune moment.


7. (SBU) The bottom line for Meirelles was that Lula will win the
first round, though not by an exceedingly wide margin. In the
October 29 runoff, he said, Alckmin will have the advantage, because
"in the second round, you don't choose a person, you reject a
person," and Lula is known to have high negative numbers.


8. (SBU) Asked if former President Cardoso (FHC) would be
campaigning for Alckmin, Meirelles said that had not yet been
decided. The Lula campaign was trying to portray the Alckmin
campaign as a throwback to the FHC years, and the candidate and
strategists wanted to wait to see whether it looked like FHC would
be more an asset than a liability.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) For Meirelles to talk optimistically is to be expected;
nevertheless, much of what he says makes sense. Lula, who does
indeed have high rejection numbers, may well have hit his ceiling,
and Alckmin is certainly moving up, though he still has a long way
to go. The Alckmin campaign does appear to be running much better
than it was a month ago, and although Lula remains popular, he does
have vulnerabilities. Assuming the election does go to a second
round, as appears likely, Lula may still be the favorite, but his
victory would by no means be a sure thing. END COMMENT.


10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.

MCMULLEN