Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SAOPAULO543
2006-05-17 19:23:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Sao Paulo
Cable title:  

DEPUTY IZAR SPEAKS ABOUT THE ETHICS COUNCIL, THE CORRUPTION

Tags:  PGOV PINR BR 
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VZCZCXRO8456
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0543/01 1371923
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171923Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5080
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6213
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2929
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7113
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2579
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2244
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 1371
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0300
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2803
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0985
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1985
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0301
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0986
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1716
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2434
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000543 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWARD
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/SHUPKA
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
NSC FOR CRONIN
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
AID/W FOR LAC/AA

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: DEPUTY IZAR SPEAKS ABOUT THE ETHICS COUNCIL, THE CORRUPTION
SCANDAL, ELECTIONS, AND POLITICAL REFORM

REF: (A) SAO PAULO 505; (B) SAO PAULO 498;

(C) SAO PAULO 465; (D) BRASILIA 682;
(E) 02 SAO PAULO 3768

-------
SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000543

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWARD
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/SHUPKA
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
NSC FOR CRONIN
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
AID/W FOR LAC/AA

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: DEPUTY IZAR SPEAKS ABOUT THE ETHICS COUNCIL, THE CORRUPTION
SCANDAL, ELECTIONS, AND POLITICAL REFORM

REF: (A) SAO PAULO 505; (B) SAO PAULO 498;

(C) SAO PAULO 465; (D) BRASILIA 682;
(E) 02 SAO PAULO 3768

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) Federal Deputy Ricardo Izar, Chairman of the Chamber of
Deputies' Ethics Council, is frustrated that so many corrupt Deputies
have been exonerated by the full Chamber, but believes nonetheless that
the political corruption scandal will have a healthy impact on Brazil's
political culture. He predicts that the scandal will serve as a
wake-up call to civil society and stimulate voters to become more
active in working for honest candidates. However, he does not expect
Congress to pass major political reform. Izar does believe that the
2006 elections will see significant turnover in the Chamber. He also
predicts that the last of the "mensaleiros" - deputies implicated in
the "mensalao" (monthly bribery payoffs) scandal - Jose Janene, a
member of the Progressivist Party (PP) from the southern state of
Parana, will be expelled from Congress and deprived of his political
rights for eight years. Izar expects his own Brazilian Labor Party
(PTB) to survive the elections, but thinks Lula's PT is going to suffer
considerable losses. END SUMMARY.

--------------
CHAIRMAN SATISFIED WITH ETHICS COUNCIL'S WORK
--------------


2. (U) Poloff and Political Assistant met May 8 with Federal Deputy
Ricardo Izar (Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) from Sao Paulo),Chairman of
the Chamber of Deputies' Ethics Council, to discuss the political
situation and the impact of the corruption scandal on national and
state elections. Izar was eager to talk about the Ethics Council,
which is responsible for investigating accusations of wrongdoing
against Deputies. He predicted the Council won't hear any more cases
this year because all the deputies want to go back to their states to
campaign for re-election. The previous week, national media had

reported on "Operation Bloodsucker," a major police action targeting
persons alleged to have misappropriated funds in the acquisition of
ambulances for municipalities. Though several former Deputies and
numerous Congressional staffers were implicated, Izar explained that
the Ethics Council would not have jurisdiction unless sitting Members
of Congress were accused of wrongdoing. (NOTE: Subsequent to this
conversation, published allegations have implicated several sitting
Members, but it is not yet clear whether the Ethics Council will get
involved, or, if it does, when. END NOTE.) Poloff also inquired about
an interview published the previous day in which Silvio Pereira, former
Secretary-General of the ruling Workers Party (Partido dos

SIPDIS
Trabalhadores - PT) had offered a new version of the mensalao scandal
(see ref A). Again, Izar explained, since the Parliamentary
Investigative Commissions (CPIs) had completed their work and issued
their reports, it was unlikely that Pereira's allegations would create
any new work for the Ethics Council.


3. (SBU) Summing up the Council's work, Izar predicted that Deputy
Vadao Gomes (PP-SP) would likely be acquitted of wrongdoing because
"there's really no hard evidence against him, just a lot of
allegations." (NOTE: On May 10, the Ethics Council absolved Gomes.
End NOTE.) On the other hand, the very last Deputy to have his case
come before the Ethics Council, Jose Janene (PP-PR) - whose case has

SAO PAULO 00000543 002 OF 003


been postponed several times due to his poor health - will lose his
mandate. "Everybody knows he's not honest," says Mr. Izar. Asked how
he can be confident that the Plenary will vote to convict Janene or
anyone else in light of the acquittal of Joao Paulo Cunha (PT-SP - see
ref D),Izar replied, "The acquittal of Cunha was a political deal
between various parties that had an interest in seeing him go free
because heQs useful to them. Nobody has an interest in seeing Janene
exonerated." The Ethics Council will wrap up its work by the end of
May, Izar opined, to give the deputies enough time to campaign.
Despite somewhat equivocal results in the eighteen cases of Deputies
accused of corruption - three expelled, ten acquitted, four resigned
rather than face the music, one pending - Izar was satisfied with the
Ethics Council's work and felt it had made a substantial contribution
to the public good.

--------------
PUBLIC TO GET MORE INVOLVED?
--------------


4. (SBU) Izar also analyzed the electoral scenario, saying that the
mensalao scandal was damaging to Members of Congress in general but
helpful to members of the Ethics Council. These Deputies, including
Izar himself, are expected to be easily re-elected, while others will
face very difficult campaigns. There is expected to be high turnover
in the Chamber of Deputies. In contrast to many analysts who predict a
high percentage of absenteeism and ballot spoiling in October - voting
is mandatory in Brazil, but in a typical election, about 20 percent of
voters either fail to vote ("abstain") or cast "blank" or "null" votes
- Izar thinks the scandal will motivate people to be more involved in
the campaign. He thinks more ordinary citizens will take on a more
active role in politics, working to defeat corrupt politicians and to
support "clean" candidates. This is because the voters, mainly from
the middle- and upper-middle class, are, in his view, determined to
defeat the PT and President Lula's government. He is less sanguine,
however, about the prospects for political reform. Per ref E, Brazil
uses a system in which Federal Deputies are elected by entire states at
large based on each party's proportion of the total vote and individual
candidates' personal votes. Izar does not see any prospect of Brazil's
elected politicians' voting to move to a single-district system.
"They'd be voting against their own interests," he explained. And
while he believes that a purely proportional system would be ideal, he
also doesn't expect that to happen any time soon, largely because so
many candidates benefit from the personal vote.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (U) Although he has changed parties five times since his first
election as a state legislator in 1983, indicating he has no strong
political allegiances, Izar is clearly enjoying and taking advantage of
his position as Chairman of the Ethics Council in his campaign for
reelection. He says he always gets compliments for his work on the
Ethics Council when visiting his constituencies in Sao Paulo. He is
absolutely certain he's going to be reelected. However, he believes
it's going to be a very difficult election for his colleagues from both
his own PTB and Lula's PT. The PTB supports LulaQs government in the
Congress but is likely to support Geraldo Alckmin, Sao Paulo former
Governor from the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB),against Lula
in the race for President, though it won't formally enter into an
alliance with the PSDB. The PTB, like other small- and medium-sized

SAO PAULO 00000543 003 OF 003


parties, has to exceed the "barrier clause" threshold of five percent
of the nation-wide Chamber of Deputies vote to survive. The PTB's
popularity has been badly damaged by the mensalao scandal, in which the
partyQs national president, Roberto Jefferson, was a key figure.
However, like his "co-religionist" Luiz Antonio Fleury (see ref C),
Izar is sure the PTB will survive because isn't part of any national
alliance. Regardless of what his party does, Izar said he will support
Alckmin for president, and he thinks Alckmin still has a chance to beat
Lula, despite recent setbacks. Like the majority of political
insiders, however, Izar does think the PT is in trouble. It will get
60 to 70 seats in the Congress, down from 90 in the 2002 general
election. According to Izar, voters from the middle and upper classes
are so irritated with Lula that they will have strong participation in
the election. He says when he meets with voters he tells them they
have to do more if they want to defeat Lula. END COMMENT.

WOLFE