MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: SOUTH AMERICA,

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000494

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: SOUTH AMERICA,
VENEZUELA, BRAZIL, URUGUAY, BOLIVIA, MERCOSUL; SAO PAULO



1. "Fragmentation Of Latin America"

University of Sao Paulo Professor Boris Fausto opined in liberal
Folha de S. Paulo (5/8): "President Evo Morales' decision to
nationalize the Bolivian oil and gas industry, using the military
and exacerbating the nationalist climate, is of itself a serious
occurrence, but it fits into an even dimmer scenario. Actually,
despite endless discourses on South America's integration, what has
become evident is the continent's increasing fragmentation.... The
episode has shown the strong ties uniting Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez
and Evo Morales - a trio combining the old-style communism of one of
them with the populist delirium of the other two.... This and other
facts point clearly towards the fragmentation of Latin American
nations. Mercosul today is an institution suffering from an acute or
even terminal crisis.... The Venezuelan president interferes in
other nations' internal affairs.... Brazil's responsibilities
regarding Latin-American relations have increased given this
scenario. Unfortunately, however, the precedents are not optimistic
given the misunderstandings and failures of Brazilian foreign
policy. Brazil's supposed 'natural hegemony' in South America, which
was proclaimed by the current administration, only increased its
rivalries with Argentina."


2. "Vienna, A Stage For Chavez"

Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo stressed (5/8): "Vienna will be
the next scenario in which Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will be
able to exhibit his increasing and deplorable influence in
Latin-American policy.... The 4th European Union-Latin America
Summit was designed to foster inter-regional cooperation, especially
in trade. But every plan involving South Americans becomes uncertain
with Chavez's noisy and generally histrionic presence.... Chavez was
one of those responsible for preventing the re-launching of the FTAA
in the Summit of the Americas last year in Argentina.... Lula has
been unable to react to the influence of Chavez, who has gradually
become Bolivian President Evo Morales' mentor.... It will be an
enormous surprise if Chavez's participation in the summit is
discreet and reasonably rational. This does not fit in his modus
operandi.... The damage will be much more significant -and will go
beyond ridicule - if Chavez hampers attempts to create a commercial
understanding between Andean and European nations. No one knows what
Chavez's behavior will be when the EU and Mercosul representatives
discuss the re-launching of negotiations between the two blocs....
Chavez's association with Mercosul makes the future of this project
even more uncertain. The only thing that is certain is his
increasing interference in his neighbors' affairs, encouraged by
Lula's subservience."


3. "Uruguay Prefers The US"

Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (5/7) editorialized: "It seems
clear that Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez will not hesitate to
leave Mercosul if the project of a trade agreement with the US
advances. After all, Uruguay can only profit from the change,
especially if Mercosul continues stuck in the disputes between
Brazil and Argentina and without prospects of agreements with the US
and the European Union."


4. "Shame In Puerto Iguazu"

The lead editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (5/6)
remarked: "The presidential meeting in Puerto Iguazu [Argentina]
served only to confirm the victory obtained by Hugo Chavez as a
result of his tutored Andean leader's [Evo Morales] decision
announced on May 1st. It was also an opportunity for Lula - the only
loser in the episode - to take on an embarrassing role.... Lula
chose the path of capitulation to please the neighbors who resented
his aspirations of regional leadership, and this is something that
he and only he refuses to see.... The tacit support that Lula
provides to Chavez is a demonstration of irresponsibility that will
become part of history. On behalf of an illusion, Lula seems to have
abandoned the defense of Brazilian national interests. In Puerto
Iguazu, he was a shy supporting actor in a show stolen by star Hugo
Chavez."


5. "The Price Of Illusions"

Sociologist Francisco Weffort observed in center-right O Estado de

S. Paulo (5/6): "President Lula's South American policy collapsed
like a house of cards as a result of Evo Morales' maneuver that
nationalized Bolivian gas and oil exploration and production....
Since he adores selling illusions, Lula has promised to discuss the

subject in conversations with Morales, Nestor Kirchner and Hugo
Chavez.... Unnerved by its chief's delusions, the GOB's first
responses to the crisis are not hopeful.... This crisis teaches
Brazil some lessons. The first is to look for alternatives to
Bolivian gas as soon as possible.... The second is that alliances
between nations can only occur in a scenario far away from the
demagoguery of Lula, Chavez, etc. They can only occur between
economic and politically stable nations willing to respect
contracts, and obviously that has not been Morales' case since
winning the elections. The fact that Lula supported Morales in the
elections demonstrates once again his ignorance in international
affairs and his inclination to deceive himself regarding his own
power."
McMullen