Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SAOPAULO202
2006-02-23 18:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Sao Paulo
Cable title:  

LULA'S RECOVERY IN POLLS EXPOSES PSDB QUANDARY

Tags:  PGOV PINR BR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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OO RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0202/01 0541814
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231814Z FEB 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4556
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 5712
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2045
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2400
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0187
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RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2715
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2282
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000202 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR CRONIN
STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: LULA'S RECOVERY IN POLLS EXPOSES PSDB QUANDARY

Ref: (A) BRASILIA 353 and PREVIOUS; (B) SAO PAULO 73

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000202

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR CRONIN
STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: LULA'S RECOVERY IN POLLS EXPOSES PSDB QUANDARY

Ref: (A) BRASILIA 353 and PREVIOUS; (B) SAO PAULO 73


1. (U) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


2. (U) Recent polls showing President Lula recovering lost
popularity have sounded alarms within the opposition Brazilian
Social Democracy Party (PSDB),which is struggling to nominate a
candidate to oppose him in the October presidential election. Party
chieftains have been resistant to calls for a primary or some other
formal decision-making mechanism, fueling a perception of an
elitist, undemocratic leadership. Sniping between the two
pre-candidates, Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra and Sao Paulo State
Governor Geraldo Alckmin, has grown more heated over the past week.
At this point, even the question of when a decision will be made
remains uncertain. The PSDB's mishandling of what normally would be
considered a major strength - two distinguished, highly qualified
contenders - calls into question its organizational ability and
political acumen for mounting a strong challenge to Lula. While
there is time for the party to recover from their recent missteps,
it is not yet clear they've figured out how to do it. End Summary.

--------------
POLLS OVERSHADOW PSDB EVENT
--------------


3. (U) On February 16, the PSDB hosted a seminar in Sao Paulo,
calling together party economists and office-holders to discuss
economic initiatives and programs to be used in this year's election
campaign. The two pre-candidates, Jose Serra and Geraldo Alckmin,
were present, as were the party's three "cardinals" or king-makers,
former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC),Senator from Ceara
(and party president) Tasso Jereissati, and Minas Gerais Governor
Aecio Neves, along with a host of other PSDB luminaries. The event
was to some extent overshadowed, however, by the February 14 release
of a CNT-Sensus poll showing that President Lula could defeat either
PSDB candidate comfortably (ref A). Following on a Datafolha poll
released in early February, the latest numbers appeared to confirm a
Lula comeback from a deep hole caused by the political scandal.

(Note: Yet another Datafolha poll released February 22 reconfirmed
Lula's lead. End note.)

--------------
DESPERATELY SEEKING PARTY UNITY
--------------


4. (U) While some PSDB members questioned the Sensus poll's
validity, others quickly recognized the challenge posed by a
resurgent Lula and the need for party unity to confront it. Many
wanted to rally around Serra, but he has still not declared his
candidacy and has indicated he will not decide until March (ref B).
Observers agree he wants to run, even though it means resigning with
almost three years remaining in his term as Mayor, but that he wants
to be acclaimed the party's choice and guaranteed its full support.
The leadership has been generally supportive of Serra on the
strength of earlier polls showing him defeating Lula, but it cannot
create consensus where it does not exist. The impression that the
nomination is Serra's for the asking was strengthened by the
king-makers' February 16 dinner in an upscale Sao Paulo restaurant,
at which Serra but not Alckmin was present. Alckmin, however, who
in January declared his intention to resign the office of Governor
by March 31 as required by electoral law, has refused to disavow his
candidacy, arguing that the party should hold a primary or some
other formal process to make its choice.


5. (SBU) Up to now, party insiders have intimated that the three
king-makers (or, in some versions, FHC by himself) will choose the
candidate following private internal consultations. Now the party
is belatedly recognizing that such a process may make it look
anachronistic, and non-transparent in Brazil's maturing democracy,
in which other major parties, such as the Brazilian Democratic

SAO PAULO 00000202 002 OF 002


Movement Party (PMDB) and Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos
Trabalhadores - PT),are planning to hold primaries. Some prominent
"tucanos" (as PSDB members are called, after the party symbol) - for
example, Goias State Governor Marconi Perillo and Curitiba Mayor
Jose Alberto Richa - have begun to complain about being excluded
from the process. Struggling to control the damage, the triumvirate
reportedly met February 21 with Alckmin and indicated that, though
they still don't see the need for a primary, they will not make a
decision until March 10-15, after listening to the views of the
party's governors, federal deputies, and senators.

--------------
AS THE CANDIDATES BICKER
--------------


6. (SBU) Judging by the intensified rhetoric, the contenders
themselves may also be feeling the pressure. Serra has reportedly
characterized Alckmin as "intransigent" for his refusal to step
aside, suggesting he should follow the statesmanlike example of the
late Sao Paulo Governor (1983-87) Andre Franco Montoro, who in 1985,
despite being considered the "natural" candidate, stepped aside to
allow Tancredo Neves to run in the indirect presidential election
that led to restoration of Brazilian democracy. In invoking Franco
Montoro, Serra is implicitly mocking those who have called Alckmin
the "natural" PSDB candidate, as well as the Alckmin himself for
wrapping himself in the mantle of the late Governor (1995-2001) and
PSDB co-founder Mario Covas, whom he served for six years as
Lieutenant Governor. (Some Alckmin supporters told us they are
planning to take advantage of upcoming observation of the fifth
anniversary of Covas's death to demonstrate the strength of
Alckmin's support.) For his part, the normally even-tempered,
taciturn Alckmin has shown increasing irritation at insinuations
that he is an "adventurer" and a Lone Ranger when in fact he is, as
he points out, his party's only declared candidate. Nonetheless,
Serra and the PSDB leadership evidently wish he would just go away.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (SBU) Since the political scandal broke in May 2005, the PSDB has
been looking forward to these elections as a chance to score major
gains over a weakened PT. The embarrassment of riches constituted
by having too many qualified candidates is the sort of problem most
parties would give an arm and a leg for, and it places the PSDB in
sharp contrast with the PT, which has no one but Lula. Yet the PSDB
is clearly at a loss as to how to decide the issue, and the more
competitive the race with Lula looks, the dithering is starting to
inflict damage on the party's campaign before it even gets under way
Some party faithful are grumbling that either Serra or Alckmin
would be fine with them, but they wish the party would decide and
move on, because the indecision is hurting them.


8. (SBU) At this point, a primary is not a practical notion, if only
because of the difficulty of organizing one from scratch before the
March 31 deadline by which Serra and Alckmin have to resign if they
are going to run. Even Alckmin may not really want a primary; more
likely, his calling for one is a tactic to demonstrate he is a
serious candidate with real support among the party's base. But the
party does need to open up its decision-making process, and Alckmin
hopes that consultations among professional party politicians will
show that his support is broader than previously suspected. There
is still time for the PSDB to resolve this problem, close ranks, and
repair the damage, but it's not yet clear they've figured out how to
do it. End comment.


9. (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.

McMullen