MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAN ROLE IN IRAQ; MIDDLE EAST:

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001199

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAN ROLE IN IRAQ; MIDDLE EAST:
LEBANON, U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS; SAO PAULO



1. "To Negotiate With Iran? That Is The Question"

International affairs commentator Newton Carlos wrote in liberal,
largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (11/17): "The
bipartisan committee that is looking for a way to get the US out of
the Iraqi quagmire has already signaled that it is considering a
regional conference in the Middle East in which Americans and
Iranians would be the major protagonists.... A direct dialogue
between the US and Iran has been compared with the diplomatic
initiative that led to the reestablishment of relations with
communist China in the 70's.... Experts are convinced that the
'major dispute,' both for Tehran and Washington, is located in Iraq.
The idea of a dialogue is not new. Earlier this year, the Bush
administration tried to resume it, even limited to the 'Iraq
question,' but difficulties in the agenda prevented the idea from
advancing."


2. "Setback In Lebanon"

Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo
editorialized (11/15): "Lebanon is experiencing another serious
political crisis.... The reason is the Parliament's recently
approved motion in support of UN plans to create an international
court to judge those responsible for Rafik Hariri's murder.... UN
investigations have indicated the participation of major Syrian
authorities in the crime.... The US and the West have supported
Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's government.... But the situation may
change. Following the Democratic victory in the US midterm
elections, pressures for the Bush administration to resume
negotiations with Syria are increasing, and that would be good.
Damascus would then pull away from Iran and help Washington to try
to control the chaos in Iraq in exchange for the return of the Golan
Heights. However, it is likely that Syria wants to resume control of
Lebanon too, which would be a step backwards. What remains to be
seen is whether, on behalf of some relief of the situation in Iraq,
the US would give up supporting Siniora."


3. "History's Revenge"

Sociologist Demetrio Magnoli commented in center-right O Estado de

S. Paulo (11/16): "There are indications that the Baker Commission
is anticipating a bloody fragmentation of Iraq into three autonomous
entities and will propose something like a 'withdrawal to the
neighborhood.' That means the removal of the occupation troops from
Iraqi cities to bases in the Iraqi desert and neighboring nations as
a means of providing support to Baghdad's government and dissuading
both Iran and Syria from directly interfering in the Iraqi civil
war.... In addition to expanding the horrible ethnic cleansing,
Iraq's fragmentation would destroy the basis of the regional
order.... The failure of the Bush Doctrine launches a general war
threat over the Middle East. The US is probing the possibility of
opening negotiations with Iran and Syria. On the other hand, Israel
is openly preparing to wage a war against these two nations."
McMullen