DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: MAY 16 ELECTIONS OUTLOOK

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TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: MAY 16 ELECTIONS OUTLOOK



1. (SBU) This is the 11th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Republic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:

May 16 Elections Outlook

On the eve of the May 16 congressional and municipal
elections, Central Elections Board (JCE) president Luis Arias
has credibly assured the Dominican public and international
community that administrative preparations are complete and
that the voting process "will proceed normally."
International observers, led by an OAS election observer
mission, and domestic observers will be deployed throughout
the country, with special focus on big cities with close
races or places with possible irregularities in voter lists
(see our daily for May 15). Voters at 12,371 polling
stations will elect 32 senators, 178 representatives, 151
mayors, 151 vice mayors, 963 city council members and their
substitutes.

Outlook in a Nutshell

Nationwide, the ruling PLD will almost certainly increase its
currently weak representation in Congress, but may fall short
of majorities in either house. It may also win control of
some of the municipal governments now controlled
overwhelmingly by the opposition, perhaps lessening partisan
frictions between the central government and local
authorities. An unprecedented alliance between the two major
opposition parties will function in about 26 of the 32
provinces, but its ability to turn out PRD and PRSC voters
will be tested on election day. The highest-profile contests
for senator and mayor in the capital are too close to call;
in the northern regional capital, Santiago, the two key races
are virtually decided.


What the Results Might Mean

In the most likely scenario, the Fernandez administration
will strengthen its forces in both houses of Congress, but
not dominate them. If so, he will gain needed leverage to
pass legislation, such as laws relating to DR-CAFTA
implementation, but will still have to negotiate with the
main opposition parties. This added leverage will be even
more useful if the PRD-PRSC opposition alliance survives the
election and becomes a legislative coalition. In any case, a
Congress that is more balanced between ruling party and
opposition may facilitate reaching consensus on major issues.
In the event the PLD wins a majority in either house,
Fernandez could approach the legislative control that
ex-president Mejia enjoyed during his term.

The ruling party's performance will also be read as a litmus
test of its ability to back President Fernandez for a third
term in 2008. The PLD chose not to ally itself with another
major party, even though it had the opportunity to do so.
The conventional wisdom holds that the PLD is weaker in the
base - at local levels - than at the top. That could be
changing after Fernandez's convincing victory in the 2004
election (57% to 34% PRD and 9% PRSC). The opposition
alliance's performance in the 2006 election will be an
indicator of how much the PRD's grass roots have eroded or
whether the party has ceded first place to the PLD. From
today's perspective, Fernandez will be hard to beat in 2008.
Only the PRD, if it retains most of its traditional support,
could credibly challenge him.


Races to Watch
The most highly prized trophies, the mayoralty and Senate
seat of Santo Domingo (National District),are up for grabs.
The PLD's strength in the city - about half the voters -
gives its candidates a natural edge. Mayor Roberto Salcedo
(PLD) also has the power of a successful incumbency -- "He
picks up the trash in my barrio, where the streets are
narrow," quipped political officer's domestic employee, to
explain why she will vote for Salcedo. A poll in early April
by U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland showed him to lead
challenger Alfredo Pacheco by 58% to 41%. But Pacheco (PRD))
has gained respect in three terms as speaker of the House of
Representatives and has spent heavily on his campaign -- his
glossy brochures come with daily newspapers, detailing a
14-point action plan. Outcome is too close to call.

Even closer is the Senate race: PLD secretary general
Reinaldo Pared Perez has the backing of President Fernandez
and his chief of staff, party boss Danilo Medina. But some
voters regard Pared as "prepotente" - too aggressive in his
manner. Opposition candidate Johnny Jones offers a more
relaxed demeanor on camera, equally articulate but more
"simpatico." Jones's weakness is that of his PRSC, which has
a low percentage of voters in the capital; he will rely
heavily on PRD votes in the opposition alliance. The Penn,
Schoen poll put these candidates in a technical tie, 49% for
Salcedo to 45% for Jones.

In the northern regional capital, Santiago, Attorney General
Francisco Dominguez Brito (PLD) is very likely to win a
Senate seat. He led PRD candidate Hector "Papin" Dominguez
by 58%-31% in the Penn, Schoen poll and continues as the
front runner. He stands for rule of law, judicial and
prosecutorial reform, and transparency, and is likely to
pursue such a legislative agenda if elected. Incumbent mayor
Jose Enrique Sued (PRSC) has an even wider margin, 65%-29%,
over PLD provincial governor Jose Izquierdo. The mayor has
attracted international loans to address the city's problems
and takes credit for substantial investment in public works
as well as social programs. He benefits from local
Reformista Party strength, roughly equivalent to that of the
ruling PLD and opposition PRD.


Issues for Voters

Although many candidates have skimped on campaign proposals,
the voters have concerns that they hope will be addressed.
Topping the list of most important problems confronting the
county, in the Penn, Schoen poll, were corruption (21% of
respondents) and unemployment (21%). Next were illegal drugs
(19%) and violence and crime (13%). Crime has focused the
attention of candidates in the biggest cities, such as
Pacheco in Santo Domingo, who have proposed remedies within
the limited resources of local governments. An impressive
82% of citizens nationally agreed that the Dominican Republic
"needs a hard-line government" to reduce crime; only 17%
disagreed. This is noteworthy in a country where, according
to other surveys, most citizens still express faith in
democracy under any circumstances.

Criticisms by Civil Society

Prominent civil society organizations predict a generally
"normal, orderly" voting process May 16. But they are not so
sanguine about some of the JCE's actions or the campaign just
completed. The complaints strike familiar chords from
previous elections. The digital photographic list of some
5.6 million voters includes many persons who have been
transferred from one polling place (colegio electoral) to
another, generally for valid reasons including migration of
voters or creation of new polling tables. Such transfers
often provoke suspicions of malicious intent. This year,
more than 10,000 persons were shifted from colegios in and
around the capital to some of the least populated and most
distant provinces. Civil society and political leaders have
alleged that the transfers, which in two towns increased the
total number of voters by more than 20 percent, may have
resulted from improper action by an unnamed JCE employee, to
boost particular candidates' chances. But there is no
evidence that the transfers were not voluntary.

"The election campaign was no model," clucked top political
commentator Juan Bolivar Diaz at an event honoring the
election observers. The Fernandez administration "abused
state resources" in a flurry of inaugurations of public works
by the president, who turned them into campaign events.
Government employees and vehicles were dragooned into service
to support ruling-party candidates; ads run in the media by
government agencies had a similar effect. Also, the parties
failed to comply with a legal requirement that 33% of the
candidates be women.

On the positive side, there was less violence than in
previous campaigns -- only 1 dead and 8 injured, by Diaz,s
count. While many candidates emphasized style over
substance, some 30-40 -- according to Diaz -- did present
serious proposals. (Out of more than 14,000 candidates, we
would add. Many local candidates addressed local issues from
street paving to garbage collection.) As usual, noted
Participacion Ciudadana executive director Javier Cabreja,
patronage has primed the pump: many voters gauge the
candidates, especially for mayor, on their promises to
provide public jobs to supporters.


Apathy or Disenchantment?

Voting is legally obligatory in the Dominican Republic, but
is not enforced. Abstention in previous mid-term elections
was on the order of 49%, more than the 27% in the 2004
presidential voting. Increased voter apathy in legislative
and local elections characterizes many democracies, some
commentators have noted. But for others, like Diaz, it is
symptomatic of "politicians' growing lack of credibility and
voter disgust" at what is perceived as their lack of
proposals, corruption, and patronage-oriented behavior.
Several candidates have criminal charges pending or
have been allowed to run despite convictions for corrupt
activities.



2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL