CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #10: CENTRAL

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001522

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA, EB, EB/IFD/OMA,
; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE;
DEPT PASS USTR; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN
DIVISION;
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #10: CENTRAL
ELECTION BOARD IS ON COURSE, DESPITE FLAK


1. (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:

Central Election Board Is on Course, Despite Flak

The Central Election Board (JCE),responsible for organizing
and adjudicating the May 16 Dominican congressional and
municipal elections, is overcoming minor delays and, barring
any unforeseen major obstacles, will hold the elections as
scheduled. Recent sharp criticism of the JCE in the
Dominican press is driven by chronic suspicions of political
bias among the judges, in a political culture prone to
conspiracy theories. The Organization of American States
(OAS) has announced the arrival of an Election Observation
Mission April 30, and the diplomatic community including the
Embassy has committed to support the international observer
effort.

Jaundiced Views

"The JCE, under a sea of doubts," blared the editorial
headline of establishment daily "Listn Diario" on April 27.
"The credibility of the election process has been seriously
compromised by the clumsiness of the Central Election Board
and its whims in dealing with the political parties,"
complained generally pro-Fernndez administration Diario Libre
on April 26. "Let us dispel the fears," intoned center-left
"Hoy" on April 27.

Why all the fuss? In preceding days, the leaders of the
three major parties and the National Council of Private
Enterprise (CONEP) had called on the JCE to publish the final
list of candidates for the elections, whose names had been
submitted for approval March 16 and approved a week later.
In the interim, members of the opposition PRD-PRSC alliance
had been complaining and filing challenges with the JCE's
dispute resolution chamber, alleging that they had been
improperly excluded from candidacies for which they had been
selected by internal primaries.

Even President Fernandez joined the chorus of the querulous.
The evening of April 26, he denounced the uncertainty of the
JCE's behavior in the elections, in light of the
non-consensual manner in which the current JCE judges had
been "imposed by a tyrannical majority" of PRD senators
during the selection process in 2002. He called for
institutional changes by the new Congress - - which he
predicted would have a majority of ruling PLD and allied
legislators - - to ensure selection of impartial judges to
guarantee a clean election process.

A Timely Announcement

The same evening, the JCE dispelled much of the concern by
delivering the list of 14,200 registered candidates for 1412
elected positions to the political parties. Even "Hoy"
acknowleged that the release of the list "has been a big step
forward to defuse the tension in the electoral atmosphere."
Also that day, JCE elections director Gilberto Cruz Herasme,
the top technical manager of the election system, confirmed
to Embassy officers that as of April 24 all candidacies had
been closed. In fact, he said, the law allowed the JCE until
May 11 to deliver the lists - - although earlier delivery was
desirable.

Any further substitutions could only occur at city council
level, the lowest in these elections, if accepted by vote of
the JCE judges. Names would not change on the ballots, but

the voting for city council is by party lists, and voters
select a party ticket headed by the candidate for mayor.

Other technical and logistical arrangements were on track,
according to Cruz Herasme. The printing of ballots was well
advanced and, despite glitches with one of the several
contractors performing this service, he had hired bigger
firms to finish the ballots and expected to have them all
delivered to the JCE by May 2. Meanwhile, in the last week of
April JCE computer experts began final tests of the election
data processing system.

The OAS Weighs In

Visiting OAS Deputy Secretary General Ramdin, in town for an
OAS justice ministers' meeting, helped calm the waters by
meeting with JCE
administrative chamber president Nelson Gmez and expressing
to the press his confidence that there will be clean
elections, a feeling that he confirmed on April 27 to the
Ambassador and Embassy officers. Gmez
announced that the OAS would send 67 election observers.

Ramdin told the Ambassador and other donor country
ambassadors that an advance group headed by OAS observation
mission chief Rubn Perina would arrive here April 30 and
begin work May 1 (despite the local holiday). The EU,
Brazil, and Canada have committed along with the United
States to fund the OAS mission. The diplomats discussed with
Ramdin arrangements for volunteer diplomatic observers to
operate under the OAS umbrella on election day.

JCE's "Original Sin"

The political alignment of JCE judges is generally
acknowledged. Six of the nine judges came from the ranks of
the PRD, now in the opposition; two have ties to the
opposition PRSC; and only one is identified with the ruling
PLD. JCE plenary president Luis rias, formerly of the Hatuey
DeCamps faction of the PRD, has moved closer to President
Fernndez since Hatuey bolted and formed his own party.

Even so, Embassy has not noted any bias in JCE decisions in
this campaign, and the same JCE in 2004 performed impartially
during a more emotionally charged election than this one. At
the technical level, the JCE has strong management; Cruz
Herasme has been at the JCE since 1996, through six elections
and four administrations of different parties.

As in 2004, the main concern will be the stance of the JCE's
dispute resolution chamber when, as is likely, some local or
provincial elections are disputed on election day or
immediately after. Even if, as we expect, the electoral
process works well overall, there is potential for local
flashpoints. Leaders of the ruling party worry that, when
the chips are down, the PRD-linked judges will show bias in
throwing one or another local contest to the opposition.
Although such decisions cannot be ruled out in isolated
instances where ambiguous circumstances might allow leeway in
interpretation, they are unlikely to swing the election
results at a national level.

As one contact remarked to political officer, the JCE is
itself running for reelection. It is elected by the Senate
in accord with the Dominican constitution. Depending on the
party balance in the new Senate after August 16, the current
judges could get four more years if the PRD retains a
majority or could be replaced if the PLD gains a majority or
plurality, with enough leverage to force consensus)

Regardless of its generally good track record, the JCE is not
entirely disinterested in the outcome.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL