CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #9:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 001519

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA, EB, EB/IFD/OMA,
; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE;
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DIVISION;
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #9:
PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS LOOK TO 2008 AND BEYOND


Classified By: Economic and Political Counselor Michael Meigs for Reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:

Presidential Hopefuls Look to 2008 and Beyond

(U) As the Dominican Republic prepares to hold congressional
and municipal elections May 16, prominent persons in the
major political parties are gauging their chances to launch
candidacies against President Leonel Fernandez two years
hence. A Gallup poll this month (septel, election series #8)
measured the current popularity of some of these leaders;
others are working behind the scenes or planning for the long
term.

(U) The presidential aspirants will adjust their expectations
based on the outcome of the mid-term elections, but the
resulting inter-party balance of power will not necessarily
indicate what the situation will be in 2008. Also, the
ruling PLD's Bloque Progresista and the opposition PRD-PRSC
Gran Alianza Nacional may not survive as coalitions in their
present form until 2008. The successful presidential
candidate will probably come from one of the big three
parties.

The Ruling PLD

(C) President Leonel Fernndez (PLD) has declined to comment
on his intentions for 2008. In early 2006 at a political
rally in the northern coastal town of Nagua he commented that
four years were not enough to achieve the party's agenda,
causing a stir in the press. The presidential press
spokesman promptly denied that the reference was to Fernandez
as a candidate. In the Gallup poll Fernandez was viewed
favorably by the greatest number of poll respondents, 73%,
followed by former vice president Jaime David Fernandez
Mirabal (PLD, no relation),62%. Both had low unfavorable
ratings, 24% and 22%. Secretary of the Presidency Danilo
Medina, the president's chief of staff, followed with a
positive response from 53% vs. 26% negative. Both Medina and
Fernandez Mirabal have been rivals of the president within
the PLD and could promote their own candidacies in 2008. At
present these rivalries are muted by Fernandez's continuing
popularity.

(C) Medina controls much of the PLD machinery and has placed
his people in key positions, but can't hold a candle to
Fernandez as a charismatic personality. In 2000, when
Fernndez was barred by the constitution from running for a
second term, Medina lost the presidential election to Hiplito
Mejia by a wide margin. Barring any unforeseen disasters in
the present Fernandez administration, he will probably run
for a third term in 2008 -- an option permitted by a 2002
constitutional amendment -- and the PLD would be unlikely to
pick Medina as the candidate over a proven two-time winner.
The PLD rank-and-file look to Fernandez, not Medina, as their
top party leader.

(SBU) Fernandez Mirabal, whose mother was one of the three
legendary anti-Trujillo Mirabal sisters martyred in the
1950s, has remained aloof from the administration and much of
the party. His considerable potential may ebb the longer he
bides his time. His active and ambitious cousin,
Congresswoman Minou Tavarez Mirabal, like Jaime David is not
close either to Medina or to the President.

(SBU) Two younger PLD figures have entered the competition.
Senator Jose Tomas Perez, representing the capital, did not
compete for his party's senatorial nomination this time
despite strong poll ratings and a widely admired record as a
legislator. In an interview in weekly newspaper "Clave" on
April 13, he announced he would "start to build a new
presidential option within the PLD...not aimed against anyone
in particular." An avowed man of principle, Perez has been
criticized by PLD colleagues for being "too independent" and
on occasion has differed publicly with the administration.
To get the party behind him, he would have to be more of a
team player and cultivate relations with party boss Medina.

(SBU) Another highly competent and popular figure, Attorney
General Francisco Dominguez Brito, has built his reputation
on strengthening the justice system and fighting corruption.
He is favored to win election as a senator from Santiago and
is considered to be "presidenciable." Both Perez and
Dominguez Brito will be good alternatives for 2008 in the
event President Fernandez does not run.

(SBU) A PLD elder, Interior Secretary Franklin Almeida, has
competed before for the party's nomination and still harbors
hopes. But his confrontational style, on display since
February in his repeated criticisms of the nation's
municipalities for alleged wasteful spending, counts against
him, as does his past as a militant leftist (in the
1960s-1970s).

(SBU) Among the top palace advisors, Medina's counterpart on
the economic side, Technical Secretary of the Presidency
Temistocles Monts, is no politician. He rarely engages in
public political discourse, as distinct from policy
statements in his crucial areas of responsibility.
Presidential Legal Adviser Cesar Pina Toribio has much more
of a political bent and often voices opinions to the press,
including doubts about the independence and credibility of
the Central Election Board (JCE). But he lacks a public
following; at a minimum he would need to hold a ministry to
become a presidential contender. He is one of the possible
candidates to succeed Attorney General Francisco Dominguez
Brito, if as expected the AG wins election to the Senate.

The Opposition PRD

(SBU) The PLD currently benefits from unity of command, but
the main opposition leaders since their 2004 election defeat
have been divided and, with some exceptions, relatively
unpopular. Among the PRD's chronically squabbling leaders,
ex-president Hipolito Mejia is by all accounts still the
strongest within the party, but his favorable rating in the
public opinion poll was a mere 24%, compared with 72%
unfavorable. Aside from occasional statements, he has not
played a prominent role in this election campaign or in the
negotiation of the PRD-PRSC alliance.

(SBU) Embassy PRD contacts say Mejia is interested in running
again for president, and some PRD legal experts -- contrary
to others -- parse the wording of the 2002 constitutional
amendment to permit him to do so. The amendment, passed by
his PRD supporters to enable him to run for reelection in
2004, appears to allow only one attempt by a sitting
president at reelection. Beyond this impediment, Mejia would
have to overcome the unpopularity that has dogged him since
the last year of his presidency, beset by financial crisis
and accusations of corruption.

(SBU) That said, the PRD is the strongest opposition party
and its candidate is likely to be the most potent adversary

to Fernandez in 2008. Former public works secretary Miguel
Vargas Maldonado (PRD),a successful and wealthy businessman,
has been working for more than a year to promote his own
pre-candidacy for president and organize a nationwide
campaign network. Some PRD leaders, including members of
Congress, have told the Embassy they support his aspirations.
His demonstrated initiative and energy have given him a head
start over other contenders, and it is fair to assume he is
using his abundant personal resources to further his cause.
To Embassy's knowledge, no one has accused Vargas of
corruption in his previous government job, a traditional
opportunity for illicit enrichment.

(SBU) PRD President and Senator Ramon Alburquerque, who was a
pre-candidate for the nation,s presidency in 2004,
undoubtedly plans to try again in 2008. A veteran of more
than 15 years in the Senate, he is well known to politicians,
and in his party leadership role is seen and heard almost
daily in the media criticizing the government and opining on
the controversies of the day. He has earned a reputation in
Congress for confrontation, and some party colleagues regard
him as self-promoting. If Mejia encounters insuperable
obstacles to running again, Alburquerque could emerge as a
compromise presidential candidate -- after overcoming
competition from other PRD faction chiefs.

(SBU) The PRD has at least one younger leader to watch,
Secretary General Orlando Jorge Mera. Son of former

SIPDIS
president Salvador Jorge Blanco (1982-1986),Jorge has cast
himself as part of a new, more modern generation. Author of
a weekly newspaper column promoting reforms in the Dominican
political and civic culture, Jorge also negotiated the
electoral alliance with his even younger counterpart, PRSC
Secretary General Victor Gomez Casanova. For months the two

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frequently appeared in news photos, announcing the latest
developments. Jorge Mera is likely to pass up a candidacy in
2008 election, finish his four-year term as secretary
general, run for the Senate in 2010, and compete for the
presidency in 2012.

(SBU) Other PRD elders, former vice president Milagros Ortiz
Bosch and Rafael "Fello" Subervi Bonilla, still have
significant followings in the party and are active in
directing the current PRD campaign, but are unlikely to win a
presidential nomination in 2008. They slipped in public
esteem after the bruising nomination battle of 2004 and,
despite periodic public statements, have not recovered.
Ortiz Bosch has nearly equal favorable and unfavorable poll
rating, 46% vs. 44%. Subervi got a 50% unfavorable poll
score, far more than his 32% favorable.

The Opposition PRSC

(U) The Refomista Party has been struggling to survive since
2004, and big factions have broken away to join the
government or support its candidates in this election. The
party's weakness will handicap any of the PRSC figures who
aims to run for president. In the event the current alliance
endures until 2008, the common candidate would probably come
from the PRD.

(SBU) Nonetheless, of the 14 national figures included in the
poll, former presidential candidate Eduardo Estrella got the
third highest favorable response, 57% -- behind only
President Fernandez and former Vice President Fernandez
Mirabal. Estrella likes to describe himself as "the moral
conscience" of the PRSC, and he quietly boasts of having been
the only public works secretary in Dominican history who
"didn't steal a cent." Any hyperbole aside, he looks and

acts the part of Mr. Clean. Regrettably, corruption is not at
the top of Dominican voters' most pressing concerns,
and Estrella as a public speaker lacks punch or charisma. He
retains some influence within his fractured party, but is
unlikely to win its nomination again.


(C) Amable Aristy Castro, secretary general of the Dominican
Municipal League, handles a big fund for the Dominican
government, distributing as much
as 11 billion pesos (346 million US dollars) in revenue
sharing to city governments. He strongly promoted the
PRD-PRSC alliance, and its successful conclusion was viewed
as a victory for him against Estrella and other reformistas
who preferred different arrangements. Aristy has earned a
reputation for using money to leverage political advantage,
and even leaders in his own party dislike his tactics. Some
comments suggest he may have been involved in money
laundering, and he has denounced as politically motivated the
opening by the government anti-corruption office of his
management of the Municipal League. A canny and rich
businessman, who has twice been president of the Dominican
Senate, Aristy is promoting himself as a candidate for 2008.
But the opinion poll gave him an unfavorable rating of 42%,
compared with 33% favorable. In response, he told the press
on April 24 that he expects to be elected Senator of
Altagracia province by an 80% margin and that his daughter
Karina will enjoy the same measure of support for re-election
as the mayor of Higuey, the provincial seat. Aristy's image
will make it very difficult for him to gain a presidential
nomination from a major party.

(SBU) PRSC President Federico "Quique" Antun Batlle tried to
steer the PRSC into an alliance with the ruling PLD (see
daily for March 2); the opposite outcome detracted from his
clout. His PRSC colleagues generally view him as a competent
manager of routine party affairs, but not as presidenciable.
His business as a breeder of fighting cocks, while moderately
lucrative, also limits his appeal among urban and more
educated voters. In the poll, he got only 29% favorable
responses vs. 41% unfavorable.

(SBU) Senator Jose "Josecito" Hazim Frappier, Estrella's
former running mate, undoubtedly will seek another chance in
2008, but lacks the necessary national prominence. A sugar
grower in San Pedro de Macors, he is closely identified with
the interests of the sugar industry, a small and diminishing
sector in the nation's economy. His poll ratings: 37%
favorable, 32% unfavorable. He is currently embarrassed by
the fact that the banking authorities are dunning his firm
for repayment of big loans made to it by the collapsed
BANINTER. Nonetheless, he is running for reelection to the
Senate this year.

(SBU) Two younger reformistas have presidential potential:
Representative Victor "Ito" Bisono, leader of a sub-bloc of
12-15 legislators, and PRSC secretary general Vctor Gmez
Casanova. Bisono is often mentioned as a possible successor
to Alfredo Pacheco as speaker of the lower house of Congress
this year, if Pacheco wins his election race to become mayor
of Santo Domingo. A shoo-in for reelection as a congressman;
Bisono and his spouse come from wealthy business families.
If he becomes speaker, he might aspire to a presidential
candidacy in 2008; otherwise he will wait until 2012.

(SBU) Gomez Casanova, at age 29, already has several feathers
in his cap: as a fast-talking commentator on the
most-listened-to radio talk show, senior party official,
negotiator of the opposition alliance, and son of Victor

Gomez Bergs, a former minister under Balaguer and now
candidate for the Senate. Gomez Casanova will punch other
tickets before seeking the presidency: he might run for
representative or senator in 2010, then try for a
presidential run in 2012 or later.

Other Parties

(SBU) Of the approximately 19 recognized minor parties, only
one -- the newly established Revolutionary Social Democratic
Party (PRSD) of Hatuey De Camps -- stands any chance of
fielding a nationally prominent presidential candidate in

2008. De Camps held senior jobs in the administration of
Jorge Blanco and subsequently served for many years as
secretary general and then president of the PRD. As the only

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PRD leader who refused to accept Mejia's ill-fated reelection
bid in 2004, Hatuey earned a measure of public respect -- a
reputation he has striven to reinforce with the new party he
founded after breaking with the PRD in February 2005. But he
alienated many "perredeistas" by his bold move, and his
latest poll score was a dismal 54% negative, 29% positive.
He aims to build a voter base in 2006 in preparation for

2008. Despite his oratorical prowess and some success in
recruiting attractive candidates for his "black bull" party,
he is unlikely to become president. An analogy: Juan Bosch
broke from the PRD in 1973 and founded the PLD, but it did
not win the presidency until 1996 with younger leadership.

(SBU) Former police chief Pedro de Jesus Candelier, renowned
for a rise in extrajudicial killings by police during his
tenure, has launched a "movement" as a vehicle for his
presidential ambitions, the Alianza Popular con Candelier.
He is a one-issue candidate who appeals to Dominicans' rising
concern over crime and symbolizes -- without exactly saying
so ) harsh corrective measures. His remarkable 50%
favorable poll responses vs. only 32% negative signify the
salience of this issue, but little more. He tries to soften
his image with populist rhetoric about reducing poverty and
corruption. Candelier has no known party organization,
intellectual aptitude or significant sources of funding, and
his pre-candidacy at this point is a trial balloon.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL