DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #10: CENTRAL ELECTION BOARD IS

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001466

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND FEARS;
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR
4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH;
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #10: CENTRAL ELECTION BOARD IS
ON COURSE, DESPITE FLAK



1. (U) This is the 10th cable in a series reporting on the
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal
elections:


Central Election Board Is on Course, Despite Flak

The Central Election Board (JCE),responsible for organizing
and adjudicating the May 16
Dominican congressional and municipal elections, is
overcoming minor delays and, barring
any unforeseen major obstacles, will hold the elections as
scheduled. Recent sharp
criticism of the JCE in the Dominican press is driven by
chronic suspicions of political
bias among the judges, in a political culture prone to
conspiracy theories. The
Organization of American States (OAS) has announced the
arrival of an Election
Observation Mission April 30, and the diplomatic community
including the Embassy has
committed to support the international observer effort.


Jaundiced Views

"The JCE, under a sea of doubts," blared the editorial
headline of establishment daily
"Listn Diario" on April 27. "The credibility of the
election process has been seriously
compromised by the clumsiness of the Central Election Board
and its whims in dealing with
the political parties," complained generally pro-Fernndez
administration Diario Libre on
April 26. "Let us dispel the fears," intoned center-left
"Hoy" on April 27.

Why all the fuss? In preceding days, the leaders of the
three major parties and the
National Council of Private Enterprise (CONEP) had called on
the JCE to publish the final
list of candidates for the elections, whose names had been
submitted for approval March 16
and approved a week later. In the interim, members of the
opposition PRD-PRSC alliance
had been complaining and filing challenges with the JCE's
dispute resolution chamber,
alleging that they had been improperly excluded from
candidacies for which they had been
selected by internal primaries.

Even President Fernandez joined the chorus of the querulous.
The evening of April 26, he
denounced the uncertainty of the JCE's behavior in the
elections, in light of the
non-consensual manner in which the current JCE judges had
been "imposed by a tyrannical
majority" of PRD senators during the selection process in

2002. He called for
institutional changesby the new Congress - - which he
predicted would have a majority of
ruling PLD and allied legislators - - to ensure selection of
impartial judges to guarantee
a clean election process.


A Timely Announcement

The same evening, the JCE dispelled much of the concern by
delivering the list of 14,200

registered candidates for 1412 elected positions to the
political parties. Even "Hoy"
acknowleged that the release of the list "has been a big step
forward to defuse the
tension in the electoral atmosphere." Also that day, JCE
elections director Gilberto Cruz
Herasme, the top technical manager of the election system,
confirmed to Embassy officers
that as of April 24 all candidacies had been closed. In
fact, he said, the law allowed
the JCE until May 11 to deliver the lists - - although
earlier delivery was desirable.

Any further substitutions could only occur at city council
level, the lowest in these
elections, if accepted by vote of the JCE judges. Names
would not change on the ballots,
but the voting for city council is by party lists, and voters
select a party ticket headed
by the candidate for mayor.

Other technical and logistical arrangements were on track,
according to Cruz Herasme. The
printing of ballots was well advanced and, despite glitches
with one of the several
contractors performing this service, he had hired bigger
firms to finish the ballots and
expected to have them all delivered to the JCE by May 2.
Meanwhile, in the last week of
April JCE computer experts began final tests of the election
data processing system.


The OAS Weighs In

Visiting OAS Deputy Secretary General Ramdin, in town for an
OAS justice ministers'
meeting, helped calm the waters by meeting with JCE
administrative chamber president
Nelson Gmez and expressing to the press his confidence that
there will be clean elections,
a feeling that he confirmed on April 27 to the Ambassador and
Embassy officers. Gmez
announced that the OAS would send 67 election observers.

Ramdin told the Ambassador and other donor country
ambassadors that an advance group
headed by OAS observation mission chief Rubn Perina would
arrive here April 30 and begin
work May 1 (despite the local holiday). The EU, Brazil, and
Canada have committed along
with the United States to fund the OAS mission. The
diplomats discussed with Ramdin
arrangements for volunteer diplomatic observers to operate
under the OAS umbrella on
election day.


JCE's "Original Sin"

The political alignment of JCE judges is generally
acknowledged. Six of the nine judges
came from the ranks of the PRD, now in the opposition; two
have ties to the opposition
PRSC; and only one is identified with the ruling PLD. JCE
plenary president Luis rias,
formerly of the Hatuey DeCamps faction of the PRD, has moved
closer to President Fernndez
since Hatuey bolted and formed his own party.

ven so, Embassy has not noted any bias in JCE deciions in
this campaign, and the same
JCE in 200 performed impartially during a more emotionallycharged election than this
one. At the technical level, the JCE has strong management;
Cruz Herase has been at the
JCE since 1996, through six elctions and four
administrations of different paries.

As in 2004, the main concern will be the stance of the JCE's
dispute resolution chamber
when, as is likely, some local or provincial elections are
disputed on election day or
immediately after. Even if, as we expect, the electoral
process works well overall,
there is potential for local flashpoints. Leaders of the
ruling party worry that, when
the chips are down, the PRD-linked judges will Qow bias in
throwing one or another local
contest to the opposition. Although such decisions cannot be
ruled out in isolated
instances where ambiguous circumstances might allow leeway in
interpretation, they are
unlikely to swing the election results at a national level.

As one contact remarked to political officer, the JCE is
itself running for reelection.
It is elected by the Senate in accord with the Dominican
constitution. Depending on the
party balance in the new Senate after August 16, the current
judges could get four more
years if the PRD retains a majority or could be replaced if
the PLD gains a majority or
plurality, with enough leverage to force consensus)
Regardless of its generally good
track record, the JCE is not entirely disinterested in the
outcome.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted
at our SIPRNET web site
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo) along with
extensive other material.
KUBISKE