Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SANTIAGO2606
2006-12-20 20:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Santiago
Cable title:  

CHILEAN OPPOSITION EMBRACES THE FOREST, BUT WANTS

Tags:  PGOV PINR CI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHSG #2606/01 3542043
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 202043Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0586
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0021
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ DEC LIMA 4855
RUAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002606 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR CI
SUBJECT: CHILEAN OPPOSITION EMBRACES THE FOREST, BUT WANTS
DIFFERENT TREES

REF: A. A) SANTIAGO 2291

B. B) SANTIAGO 2228

Classified By: Ambassador Craig Kelly for reasons 1.5 (d and b).

-------
Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002606

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR CI
SUBJECT: CHILEAN OPPOSITION EMBRACES THE FOREST, BUT WANTS
DIFFERENT TREES

REF: A. A) SANTIAGO 2291

B. B) SANTIAGO 2228

Classified By: Ambassador Craig Kelly for reasons 1.5 (d and b).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Likely 2009 rightist presidential candidate Pablo
Longuiera recognizes that in a country where consensus on
major issues reigns across the political spectrum, the
opposition faces a difficult task in seeking to regain power.
The task is made all the harder because Chile is "profoundly
leftist" and the governing Concertacion coalition begins any
election race with an assumed 10 point lead amongst likely
voters. Absent a global "economic crisis" which affects
Chile, the Bachelet administration will also continue to
benefit from full coffers, allowing it to address social
problems, thus solidifying its electoral advantage.
Longuiera believes the opposition will have to focus on the
specific details of given programs if it is to put space
between itself and the government. Longuiera also hopes to
use burgeoning allegations of corruption, which threaten to
open a breach within Concertacion, to gain political traction
for the opposition. End summary.


2. (U) E/POL Counselor December 18 called on Senator Pablo
Longuiera of the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) party.
Longuiera, a past president of the UDI, is a leading light
within the Alianza, the loose coalition of the UDI and
Renovacion Nacional (RN) (the more moderate center-right wing
of the opposition). Longuiera is widely considered, along
with the RN's Sebastian Piniera (who lost the 2005 run-off
election to President Bachelet),to be the opposition
candidates in the 2009 presidential elections.

--------------
Tough Road to Hoe
--------------


3. (C) "Chile is a country built on consensus," Longuiera
observed, with agreement across the board on the major issues
and problems Chileans face. Increased spending on education,
reform of the pension system, and attracting investment are
all priorities on which the governing coalition and
opposition saw eye-to-eye. When E/POL Counselor remarked
that this made it difficult for an opposition candidate to
argue for a change in power, Longuiera nodded, adding that on

top of that, Chile was "profoundly leftist." "The
Concertacion can count on a solid electoral base of between
40 and 45 percent. We, on the other hand, have only 30-35
percent assured." To make matters even more difficult,
Longuiera continued, the Concertacion currently has all the
cards in its favor. The economy is strong. The price of
copper remains high, providing the government the funds it
needs to address social concerns. And, he added, Chile is
engaged in the region and the world.


4. (C) As to what might change the political landscape,
Longuiera posited several possibilities. The first was a
dramatic decline in global economic growth which affected
Chile, an option beyond opposition control, and one that
wasn't desirable. The opposition could also introduce
alternative measures to government proposals. However, such
detail - "focusing on changing the trees, even while
embracing the forest" - would be difficult and unglamorous
work. A third option was to hammer the government on the
recent string of corruption allegations (reftel A).
Longuiera said that the allegations were serious and
well-founded (without offering any more information).
Moreover, the charges are forcing open fissures between
ruling coalition partners, as well as within individual party
structures. The opposition could defeat a weakened,
distracted, and divided Concertacion.

--------------
A Unified Opposition?
--------------


5. (C) E/POL Counselor noted that press reports and private
comments suggested that UDI and RN continued to be riven by
internal dissent, especially between Longuiera and Pinera
(reftel B). Could those divisions be overcome by 2009?
Longuiera replied that he had just had lunch that day with
Piniera. Much of the supposed bad blood between them was an
"invention of the leftist press." Nonetheless, the
differences they did have were negotiable. In 2009, UDI and

RN would again run separate first-round campaigns. Longuiera
was adamant that on the right it would "be between Piniera
and me," dismissing out of hand the announced UDI candidacies
of Joaquin Lavin and Jaqueline Van Rysselberghe. The Alianza
parties will unite behind the top right wing vote-getter,
"whoever it is."

6.(C) Longuiera suggested that the Concertacion would also
run two candidates, unlike 2005, when the Christian
Democrats' (DC) Soledad Alvear stepped down in favor of the
Socialist's (PS) Michelle Bachelet. The DC has been
hemorrhaging votes and deputies over the past two elections.
It needs to have a prominent candidate heading its ticket in
2009, in order to stem its losses - including losing its
place as the single largest party in the Parliament. Unlike
the right, which would remain united into the second round, a
divided left could continue to fracture, with some DC voters
drifting to the right in the second round.


7. (C) Asked if the recent death of Pinochet - and the deep
divisions within society it had revealed - would influence
the 2009 elections, Longuiera replied emphatically that it
would not. Pinochet will "fade with time into history, and
Chileans will look to the future."

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) Longuiera is the candidate of Chile's far(ther) right
- and of those who still hold a place in their hearts for
Pinochet. Indeed, he made a brief appearance at Pinochet's
funeral -- unlike Piniera, who stayed away. Were he to win a
place in the second round, it would be difficult for him to
draw voters from the moderate DC. He is a pragmatist,
however, noting candidly the difficulties a rightist
candidate faces in a country now accustomed to center-left
rule and, moreover, one that is progressing quite nicely in
many respects. Pegging the opposition's hopes on the
corruption scandals is one option. But with Bachelet's
government moving to address the problem, one that may have
materialized too soon to benefit the opposition in 2009. End
comment.
KELLY