EL SALVADOR: ELECTIONS A QUALIFIED SUCCESS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000712

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: ELECTIONS A QUALIFIED SUCCESS FOR
ARENA


Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance
(ARENA) party made gains in the March 12 nationwide municipal
and Legislative Assembly elections, apparently garnering
34-35 Legislative Assembly seats and 144 (55 percent) of the
nation's 262 city halls. The opposition Farabundo Marti
National Liberation Front (FMLN) stands poised to have 31
Assembly deputies and 61 mayoralties, including the "grand
prize" of San Salvador. Latest results show that ARENA's
National Conciliation Party (PCN) allies will take 10
Legislative Assembly seats, the Christian Democratic Party
(PDC) six, and the Democratic Change (CD) two.
Notwithstanding their clear victory, ARENA's celebration may
be tempered by the disappearance of the 14-seat center-left
coalition of the Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR),CD,
and PDC with which ARENA had heretofore negotiated
legislation requiring a two-thirds (56-vote) supermajority;
such legislation will now require cooperation with the FMLN.
Turnout appears to have been approximately 1.7 million--some
53 percent of eligible voters, and well above the norm for
non-presidential elections. Although the final count for San
Salvador is finally in, final counts for all other races
should be available by Friday, March 17. END SUMMARY.

ARENA STRONGER IN LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY--BUT SO IS FMLN
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2. (C) Latest results from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) indicate that ARENA, (which had 29 deputies going into
Sunday's elections),will hold 34-35 seats in the new
Assembly, while the FMLN (which had 24) will possess 31.
(Note: In 2003 elections, ARENA and the FMLN won 27 and 31
seats, respectively; seven FMLN deputies later resigned or
were expelled, and formed the FDR. End note.) With the
PCN's 10 deputies (down from the 16 it won in 2003--two of
whom later defected to ARENA),the center-right 44- to
45-seat ARENA-PCN coalition will continue to wield sufficient
votes to pass legislation requiring only a simple majority of
43 votes, but as before, it will not have sufficient strength
to pass legislation requiring a two-thirds (56-vote)
supermajority. (Note: The assumption of external debt
necessary for passage of the annual federal budget,
confirmation of officials such as the Attorney General, and
constitutional reforms all require a two-thirds vote for
approval. End note.)


3. (C) For the first time since the March 2005
reapportionment of the nation's 84 Assembly seats according
to each department's relative population, 25 Legislative
Assembly seats were at stake in San Salvador; the FMLN has
apparently carried 12; ARENA 10; and the PCN, PDC, and CD one
each. None of the 7 FMLN deputies who had left the party
through 2004 and 2005 to form the FDR was reelected; the
former 14-seat center-left coalition of which they were a
part will now disappear for all intents and purposes. Even
if the 44- to 45-seat ARENA-PCN center-right coalition can
obtain the support of the 8 PDC and CD deputies, passage of
the federal budget and constitutional reforms will require
the votes of at least 3-4 FMLN deputies to achieve the
required 56-vote supermajority.

ARENA GAINS IN MAYORAL RACES
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4. (C) In municipal elections, ARENA reversed a losing trend
that had begun after 1994, and appears to have won 144 city
halls, including half of El Salvador's 14 departmental
capitals: Ahuachapan, Chalatenango, Cojutepeque,
Sensuntepeque, Sonsonate, Usulutan, and Zacatecoluca. (Note:
In 2003 elections, ARENA and the FMLN won 111 and 74
municipalities, respectively. End note.) The FMLN will
apparently now hold 61 city halls, including the departmental
capitals of Santa Tecla, San Vicente, and San Salvador (see
below). The PCN carried 39 mayoral races (down from 53 in
2003),including an easy triumph by popular San Miguel Mayor
Will Salgado--his party's only victory in a departmental
capital. The PDC won 14 municipalities--the same number as
2003, including the departmental capitals of La Union, San
Francisco de Gotera, and Santa Ana, as well as the port of La
Libertad. La Union Department, in the nation's conservative
eastern region, maintained its distinction of being El
Salvador's sole department lacking even a single FMLN-run
municipality, and ARENA surprised everyone by snatching away
from the FMLN the village of Perquin (Morazan Department),
famous for having been the FMLN guerrillas' "capital" during
the nation's 1980-1992 armed conflict. Overall, 91 of the
nation's 262 municipalities apparently changed governing
party on Sunday.

HEATED CONTEST IN SAN SALVADOR

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5. (C) San Salvador witnessed the nation's most
hotly-contested and controversial race. With early returns
showing a dead heat, both ARENA's Rodrigo Samayoa and the
FMLN's Violeta Menjivar proclaimed themselves victors Sunday
night, incurring the wrath of the TSE. As votes were counted
early in the week, the lead changed hands numerous
times--usually by no more than approximately 50 votes; the
TSE's overworked Internet servers failed, making access to

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reliable and up-to-date information difficult unless one
traveled to the TSE's election headquarters at the Hotel
Radisson--no easy task given the tight security and throngs
of protesters. By Wednesday afternoon, Menjivar led by 59
votes after a hand recount, but 83 ballots were being
contested by ARENA. Following TSE President Walter Araujo's
6:30 p.m. announcement that--prior to the declaration of a
winner--all 83 disputed ballots would be carefully reexamined
in the presence of party representatives, OAS observers, and
the media, 200 FMLN militants--some with firearms--approached
the Radisson and created disturbances in adjoining
neighborhoods. The elite police riot squad (PNC/UMO) calmly
held their lines and did not overreact to the provocation,
with the result that there were few injuries. The impasse
was finally resolved shortly after 2:00 a.m. Thursday (March
16) when, by a margin of 44 votes, the FMLN's Violeta
Menjivar was finally declared mayor-elect of the capital
city.


6. (C) Incumbent Mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora, who entered
office as a moderate FMLN member but leaves it as
representative of an FDR/CD/PNL coalition, was
characteristically gracious in conceding defeat early on,
long before it became clear who won. As with 2003, the FMLN
swept virtually all of San Salvador's suburbs, with the
notable exception of upscale Antiguo Cuscatlan, where
incumbent ARENA Mayor Milagro Navas won a seventh term and
sent her FMLN rival Anita Buitrago packing by a two-to-one
margin.


7. (C) COMMENT: ARENA's failure to retake the capital no
doubt disappoints President Saca, for whom a victory in San
Salvador had become a matter of personal prestige. However,
given the city's widespread poverty, crime, crumbling and
inadequate infrastructure, truculent public-workers union
(widely believed to be under direct control of FMLN
hardliners),and uncooperative, often-violent street vendors,
San Salvador city hall might have proved a mixed blessing at
best. ARENA's persistence in reviewing every contested San
Salvador ballot past 1:30 a.m. Thursday, even after a Samayoa
win was mathematically impossible, detracted from ARENA's
impressive gains nationwide. Although the clear victor March
12, ARENA may find little cheer in the legislative scenario
that lies ahead. With the 14-seat center-left coalition with
which they previously negotiated now gone, they will have no
choice but to seek FMLN concurrence in legislative matters
requiring a two-thirds majority. For its part, since the
FMLN's crushing nationwide defeat in the 2004 presidential
race, the party's hardliners have expelled virtually all
moderates, abolished open primaries, and rid itself of all
dissenting voices in a conscious--and quite
successful--effort to create lockstep discipline and
unquestioning obedience. Already looking ahead to 2009,
which will witness concurrent presidential, municipal, and
Legislative Assembly elections for the first time since 1994,
the FMLN's (primarily former Communist Party) leadership is
in no mood to accommodate President Saca's legislative agenda
and thereby boost his continuing popularity with the
electorate. END COMMENT.
Barclay