EL SALVADOR: SAN SALVADOR MAYOR OPINES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000504

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: SAN SALVADOR MAYOR OPINES ON
UPCOMING ELECTIONS

REF: A. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 843


B. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 3259

C. SAN SALVADOR 210

D. SAN SALVADOR 458

Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) During a February 24 informal lunch at the DCM's
residence, incumbent San Salvador Mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora,
accompanied by his wife Silvia, talked with DCM and poloff
about upcoming elections and other subjects. He began by
outlining his recent visit to the United States, during which
he participated in a congressional prayer breakfast in
Washington attended by President Bush. He marvelled at
American political figures' ability to maintain civility and
common cause in the face of political differences, and
lamented El Salvador's highly-polarized political environment
in which such bipartisan cooperation would be unthinkable.


2. (C) Rivas Zamora spoke frankly about the process whereby
the orthodox-hardliner leadership of the Farabundo Marti
National Liberation Front (FMLN) had marginalized him (see
reftel A),and finally made inevitable his resignation from
the party. Secretive FMLN strongman Jose Luis Merino, an
extremist even among the party's orthodox faction (see reftel
B),had during 2005 imparted to Rivas Zamora that the Mayor's
moderate, reformist political views were inconsistent with
the larger national message the FMLN wished to convey, and
that the best Merino could offer under the circumstances
would be appointment to the Central American Parliament
(PARLACEN),with the assurance that Rivas Zamora would be
contacted if his services were ever required in the future.
Faced with what amounted to political exile, Rivas Zamora
departed the FMLN following the party's July 17, 2005
"primaries" in which he was not allowed to participate, and
in which Schafik Handal ally Violeta Menjivar was hand-picked
by "consensus" to run in Rivas Zamora's place. (Note: Rivas
Zamora will seek reelection as the candidate of a loose
center-left coalition of the party newly-formed by FMLN
defectors during 2005, the Revolutionary Democratic Front
(FDR),the Democratic Change (CD--formerly CDU),and the
National Liberation Party (PNL). End note.)


3. (C) Turning to the subject of nationwide municipal and
Legislative Assembly elections scheduled for March 12, Rivas
Zamora opined that his own mayoral candidacy will be
handicapped by the Salvadoran electoral practice of ballots
bearing only party symbols, rather than candidates' names
and/or photos, and that many ill-informed and
marginally-literate voters will likely mark the FMLN box in
the mistaken belief that they are voting for him (rather than
Violeta Menjivar). He complained that the FDR-CD-PNL
coalition had declined to offer his own campaign and FDR
party a higher profile, telling him that he might be in the
driver's seat, but that they were "the vehicle". He
expressed his view that longtime FMLN leader Schafik Handal,
who died unexpectedly on January 24 from a massive heart
attack (see reftel C),might prove more useful to the FMLN in
death than in life, by providing a rallying point as fallen
hero. When asked about the post-election fate of the FMLN's
few remaining moderates such as Legislative Assembly Deputy
Hugo Martinez and Santa Tecla Mayor Oscar Ortiz, he
questioned whether the two had truly ever belonged among the
ranks of moderates, implying that the root of their troubles
with the FMLN's hardliner leadership more likely lay simply
in personality conflicts with Schafik Handal. He estimated
that the FDR-CD-PDC coaltion might pick up 3 to 4 of the 25
Legislative Assembly seats up for grabs March 12 in San
Salvador, plus perhaps one each in two other departments.
Without openly admitting defeat, the Mayor seemed resigned to
the fact that he will not be numbered among those celebrating
victory after March 12. (Note: Most polls show the San
Salvador mayoral race in a virtual dead heat between the
FMLN's Menjivar and ARENA candidate Rodrigo Samayoa, with
Rivas Zamora far behind at little more than 5 percent support
among voters; see reftel D. End note.)


4. (C) The Mayor touched briefly on CAFTA, which El Salvador
will be first to implement with the U.S. on March 1,
commenting that violent anti-CAFTA demonstrations
orchestrated by the FMLN leadership are being carried out by
unwitting activists with little understanding of the benefits
free trade might entail for the country. With an eye toward
his retirement from political life--perhaps sooner rather
than later--the Mayor continued to advocate for his vision of
a foundation and nongovernmental organization that would seek
to educate emerging civic leadership, expand
political-electoral literacy, and assist in the maturation of
Salvadoran civil society and continued consolidation of its
democratic institutions. (Note: Ambassador Barclay, DCM,
and poloff met with Rivas Zamora during 2005 to hear the

Mayor outline his proposed foundation, and recommended to
Rivas Zamora that perhaps he should first seek the
partnership of reputable academic institutions in El Salvador
and abroad. End note.) In conversing about the future of
any such organization, the Mayor surprised DCM and poloff by
handing off the discussion to his wife Silvia, a shy younger
woman--and the Mayor's second wife--who has heretofore been
content to remain quietly away from the public spotlight.
Silvia de Rivas Zamora went on to discuss the Mayor's
proposed foundation articulately and thoughtfully, and she
will clearly play a central role in its operation should his
plan reach fruition.


5. (C) COMMENT: Mayor Rivas Zamora let slip at least one
clue that he may not be quite as ready to withdraw from
political life as most observers believe. In commenting on
plans to name his proposed foundation and NGO after himself,
he said that it would "help maintain his name recognition
until 2009"--a clear indication that he would eagerly accept
an offer by El Salvador's loose center-left coalition to run
for president in 2009. END COMMENT.
Barclay