EL SALVADOR: POLLING DEMONSTRATES MAYORAL

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 000476

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: POLLING DEMONSTRATES MAYORAL
INCUMBENTS' ADVANTAGE

REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 315

B. SAN SALVADOR 458


1. SUMMARY: With less than four weeks to go until
nationwide municipal and Legislative Assembly elections,
results of a CID-Gallup poll publicized in leading daily El
Diario de Hoy indicate that the Nationalist Republican
Alliance (ARENA) will likely win six departmental capitals,
while the opposition Farabundo Marti National Liberation
Front (FMLN) will carry four. The center-left Christian
Democratic Party (PDC) will win two major city halls, and
ARENA's center-right ally, the National Conciliation Party
(PCN) will take one. ARENA and the FMLN are in a virtual
dead heat for the "grand prize" of San Salvador. END SUMMARY.

The West
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2. The western departments of Ahuachapan, Santa Ana, and
Sonsonate (the departmental capital cities of which are
eponymous) include most of El Salvador's prime high-elevation
coffee-growing areas. There are 41 municipalities in the
area. In 2003, 19 municipalities in the region voted for
ARENA, 7 for the FMLN and FMLN coalitions, and the remaining
15 municipalities were divided between the PCN, PDC, and CDU.


3. With the backing of 38 percent of intending voters,
Ahuachapan city's ARENA Mayor Rafael Antonio Moran leads all
other candidates and will likely continue in office. In
Santa Ana, Mayor Orlando Mena, who ran and won as an FMLN
candidate in 2003, has since changed affiliation to the
PDC-FDR-CD coalition formed during 2005. His high approval
ratings have translated into a strong lead over the
competition; 41 percent of Santa Ana voters intend to vote
for Mena. Sonsonate's ARENA Mayor Manuel Arce died of a
heart attack in December 2005, although 75 percent of those
polled mistakenly believe that Arce still holds office.
Among those aware of Arce's death, the department's
currently-appointed ARENA governor and mayoral candidate,
Roberto Aquino, is slightly favored. (Note: Salvadoran
ballots bear the parties' symbols rather than candidates'
names and/or photos; this would appear to offer an advantage
to the ARENA candidate in Sonsonate. End note.)

The East
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4. The eastern departments of La Union, Morazan, San Miguel,
and Usulutan have experienced some of the nation's highest
emigration rates; remittances from Salvadoran family members
living and working in the United States are a major source of
income in the area. La Union and San Miguel have long been
characterized as among the country's most
politically-conservative regions, while northern Morazan was
the wartime "capital" of FMLN guerrillas.


5. In La Union, the incumbent ARENA mayor will not seek
reelection; ARENA candidate Miguel Ahues Karra is the
preferred choice of 23 percent of those polled. However,
during poloff's recent visit to La Union, many locals
predicted that the PCN's Angel Emerito Garcia might
nonetheless prevail. In Morazan's departmental capital of
San Francisco Gotera, PDC incumbent Mayor Carlos Hernandez's
34 percent support among those polled more than doubles the
14 percent of his nearest rival, ARENA,s Amilcar Moreno. In
San Miguel Department's eponymous capital city, popular PCN
Mayor Will Salgado enjoys a commanding lead over all his
opponents, and hopes his "coattails" will increase the number
of PCN Legislative Assembly deputies. Usulutan city's
incumbent CD-FMLN Mayor Francisco Rivas has sufered low
approval ratings, and will not seek reelection. Usulutan's
current frontrunner is ARENA's Guadalupe de Hidalgo, now
polling at 22 percent, but her nearest competitor Francisco
Meardi of the FMLN is garnering 16 percent, making the race
too close to call given the 46 percent still undecided.

Central El Salvador
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6. In 2003 elections, the FMLN carried five of seven central
departmental capitals, the exceptions being Sensuntepeque
(Cabanas Department) and San Vincente; FMLN mayors appear
poised for reelection in at least three central departmental
capitals. In San Salvador suburb (and La Libertad capital)
Santa Tecla, incumbent FMLN Mayor Oscar Ortiz is favored by
33 percent of prospective voters--nearly twice the support of
ARENA candidate Jose Madrid (17 percent),although 49 percent
remain undecided. Chalatenango's incumbent FMLN Mayor
Eduardo Coto likewise appears headed for reelection to a
fifth three-year term, with approval ratings of 67 percent
and a 10 percent lead over the ARENA candidate. Although

incumbent FMLN Mayor Leticia Rivas of Cojutepeque (Cuscatlan
Department) maintains a relatively narrow lead (8 percent)
over ARENA candidate Guadalupe Serrano, nearly half the
population remains undecided.


7. However, in Zacatecoluca (La Paz),incumbent FMLN Mayor
Italo Lievano's term in office received poor marks, which may
explain why ARENA's Medardo Alfaro is the current
front-runner with 31 percent of the vote, easily surpassing
new FMLN candidate Raul Pineda's 12 percent support. The
mood in San Vicente likewise appears to favor change, with
ARENA challenger Enrique Jimenez (25 percent) and FMLN
candidate Rigoberto Saravia (16 percent) both leading
incumbent PDC Mayor Rafael Calderon, although 49 percent of
prospective voters remain undecided. With Sensuntepeque's
incumbent ARENA Mayor Rene Rodriguez stepping down, the race
between ARENA,s Edgar Bonilla and the FMLN's Vicente Rovira
appears nearly even, but nearly 43 percent of the population
are undecided. CID-Gallup polling in San Salvador reinforces
the results of recent UTEC/CIOPS polling (see reftel B),
indicating that a virtual tie exists between ARENA's Rodrigo
Samoya (31 percent) and the FMLN's Violeta Menjivar (29
percent),with incumbent Mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora far behind
with five percent. (Note: Rivas Zamora was FMLN when
elected, but during 2005 changed political affiliation to the
CD-PNL-FDR coalition. End note.)

Comment
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8. COMMENT: Results from past elections show that
Salvadorans tend to vote straight party tickets, and also
usually favor incumbents. Incumbents have the lead in seven
of the nine departmental capitals where an incumbent is
competing. The elections appear much closer in the
departmental capitals where there is no incumbent
participation, although ARENA candidates in such races appear
to have gotten a boost from President Saca's remarkable
personal popularity.
Butler