LATEST POLL INDICATES DEAD HEAT IN SAN SALVADOR

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 000458

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL SMIG
SUBJECT: LATEST POLL INDICATES DEAD HEAT IN SAN SALVADOR



1. The Technological University of El Salvador (UTEC) Center
for Salvadoran Public Opinion Research (CIOPS) polled 2,123
Salvadorans nationwide February 17-19, and performed an
additional poll of 615 San Salvador residents. The race for
mayor of San Salvador appears close, with 27.3 percent of
respondents favoring the FMLN's Violeta Menjivar, versus 22.7
percent for ARENA's Rodrigo Samayoa. Thirty percent of San
Salvador residents either expressed no preference or remained
undecided; the race's outcome hinges on the ability of each
party to mobilize its partisans to vote and on the ultimate
decision of a large block of undecided voters. The poll had
a two percent margin of error.


2. With regard to races in departmental capitals around the
country, the poll shows that FMLN Santa Tecla Mayor Oscar
Ortiz continues to maintain a strong lead as he seeks
re-election, as does Mayor Orlando Mena of Santa Ana, who,
although elected in 2003 as an FMLN member, now runs as a
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) candidate. Mayor Will
Salgado of San Miguel, who was elected on the ARENA ticket
but now belongs to th National Conciliation Party (PCN) is
trouncing he ARENA candidate, with 76 percent of the vote.Races in the departmental capital of Usulutan and Sn
Salvador suburb Soyapango, however, appear tooclose to call.



3. Comment: This and other reent polls indicates that,
notwithstanding Salvadrans' consistent preference for ARENA
presidentil candidates, a significant number of voters,
especially those in large urban areas, continue to favor
mayoral candidates from the FMLN or parties other than ARENA
for their municipal government. Likewise, several familiar
incumbents with proven track records and high name
recognition, like the populist Salgado or the effective Ortiz
are trouncing the ARENA party candidates despite changing
party banners and having a clear disadvantage in campaign
resources. According to the latest polls, San Salvador is
trending away from ARENA, a clear concern for President Saca,
who believes he must win San Salvador to maintain his
political momentum.
Butler