Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06SANSALVADOR455
2006-02-23 15:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy San Salvador
Cable title:  

SALVADORAN PRESIDENT SACA DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT

Tags:  PGOV ES ELECTIONS 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000455 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2026
TAGS: PGOV ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SALVADORAN PRESIDENT SACA DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT
POLL NUMBERS

Classified By: CDA Michael Butler. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000455

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2026
TAGS: PGOV ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SALVADORAN PRESIDENT SACA DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT
POLL NUMBERS

Classified By: CDA Michael Butler. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) During a lengthy February 23 evening meeting with
Polcouns, one Saca cabinet member and two key presidential
advisers recounted how stressed Saca is over the March 12
national elections and over recent polls showing Saca and his
ARENA party are not faring as well as they expected. Asked
why Saca's private pollster (a key Polcouns contact) was no
longer returning phone calls, one adviser confided that the
pollster is in hot water with Saca because the pollster was
apparently padding poll numbers to paint a rosier picture for
Saca. When Saca started seeing poll numbers by other polling
firms which showed Saca's mayoral candidate for San Salvador,
as well as several other ARENA candidates, behind the FMLN
candidates, he reportedly confronted his pollster and rebuked
him in the strongest terms. Since then Saca and his
operatives are looking much more carefully at other polls.
As a matter of fact, in the course of the conversation, one
of the presidential advisers, who is a pollster himself,
received a call from Saca campaign manager Julio Rank. Rank
had heard that the adviser had just completed a private poll
for San Salvador news daily "El Mundo," and was fishing for
poll results.


2. (C) The adviser/pollster then proceeded to run down his
own poll numbers in general terms, predicting that, if the
elections were held today, San Salvador would likely go to
the FMLN, though by a narrow margin. Asked to predict the
number of diputado seats ARENA and the FMLN would win if the
election ere held today, the adviser/pollster said that ARENA
could win between 33 and 35 seats, and that the FMLN could
win 27, but has a real chance to win as many as 28. He added
that the PCN (National Conciliation Party) is likely to win
around 12 Assembly seats, the PDC (Christian Democratic
Party) three or four, and the left-of center CD (Democratic
Change Party) would win two. Based on these numbers, he
concluded that there is a real possibility that ARENA will be
worse off after the elections than they are now, in terms of
their ability to form a voting block in the National
Assembly. His reason for this is that a best case scenario,
meaning ARENA with 35 diputados, PCN with 12, and PDC with 4,
would add up to a total anti-FMLN vote of 51, or six votes
short of the necessary 57 votes to pass constitutional
reforms or increase the national debt. Asked whether the CD
could be part of an anti-FMLN Assembly coalition, the
adviser/pollster said that the two CD candidates who will be
elected (Hector Dada and Ruben Zamora) are "hard-liners" and
will not deal with ARENA.


3. (C) All three interlocutors agreed that Saca is counting
heavily on his Washington trip and potential "prizes" he can
extract from Washington to give him the boost he feels he
desperately needs. All three also agreed that a successful
trip and the publicity Saca derives from it, may not be
enough to change voters minds. They predicted that ARENA will
gain Assembly seats and mayoralties, but will ultimately lose
the biggest prize, the ability to create a coalition in the
Assembly to move Saca's constitutional reforms forward.


4. (C) Comment: All three interlocutors have been highly
reliable Embassy contacts. The cabinet member is one of the
"stars" of Saca's team and considered highly ethical. The
adviser/pollster is considered one of the best and most
serious pollsters here, with a long track record. All three
consider themselves very good friends or Saca and loyal to
him, but are resentful of Saca's innermost circle, composed
of Secretary to the Presidency Elmer Charlaix and Minister of
Governance Rene Figueroa, who, in their view, manipulate the
president and isolate him from his friends.
Butler