EL SALVADOR: FIVE WEEKS FROM ELECTION, ARENA LEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 000315

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: FIVE WEEKS FROM ELECTION, ARENA LEAD
NARROWS

REF: A. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 2507


B. 2005 SAN SALVADOR 3215

C. SAN SALVADOR 210

Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Latest polls indicate that the Nationalist
Republican Alliance (ARENA) retains the lead in both mayoral
and Legislative Assembly races, but its lead over the
opposition Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN)
has narrowed slightly. There is no indication thus far that
this will be a continuing trend. Large numbers of
Salvadorans report their intent to vote, but many have still
not settled on their local candidates. Nearly 47 percent of
voters do not think their vote will affect local problems.
Indications are that ARENA may win additional Legislative
Assembly seats, although probably not the desired 43 seats
that would give them a simple majority vote. This polling
was conducted before the recent death of FMLN leader Schafik
Handal, which may cause slight shifts in voting intentions
(see reftel C). Saca's private pollster and his Mexican
political strategist (protect) told Polcouns last week that
they would consider it a real setback if ARENA were to
capture any fewer than 39 Assembly seats. These strategists
said that their numbers thus far show that ARENA could win 41
seats or more, strictly on Saca's highly-popular coattails.
End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (SBU) The Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA)
presently holds 29 of the Legislative Assembly's 84 seats,
with the usually-dependable support of its center-right
National Conciliation Party (PCN) allies' 14 deputies.
Legislation requiring a 43-vote simple majority is more or
less a matter of routine business. Although the (FMLN
dissident) Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR) failed to
receive official status as an independent party in time to
offer its own slate (reftel B),they have formed a coalition
with the Democratic Center (CD) and the Christian Popular
Social Party (PPSC; a Christian Democratic Party/PDC
breakaway group). The coalition currently holds 14 seats
with which ARENA and PCN must negotiate legislation requiring
a two-thirds (56 vote) supermajority, such as the assumption
of external debt necessitated by approval of the federal
budget or constitutional reforms. ARENA and the PCN now
hold, respectively, 109 and 53 of the nation's 262
municipalities, including seven large cities. The FMLN's 71
municipalities include Santa Ana (municipal capital of Santa
Ana department) and all of greater San Salvador, except for
the ARENA-ruled suburb of Antiguo Cuscatlan.

Polls show slight dip in intention to vote for ARENA
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) A poll performed January 14-22 by leading daily La
Prensa Grafica involved 2,000 interviews nationwide with
persons above the age of 18. ARENA retains the lead in both
mayoral and Legislative Assembly races, but may have lost
ground slightly. In November, 27.7 percent of the population
indicated an intent to vote for ARENA for mayor, whereas now
25.9 percent of the population intends to vote for ARENA.
Similarly, in November, 28.7 percent of the population
intended to vote for ARENA for Legislative Assembly deputy,
but the latest poll shows 26.6 percent with intent to vote
ARENA. Conversely, the FMLN has made some gains, from 11.6
to 15.1 percent for mayoral races, and from 12.5 to 17.2
percent for Legislative Assembly seats. ARENA candidates
continue to hold leads throughout the country in both mayoral
and Legislative Assembly races, but margins are narrower in
the eastern zone and San Salvador metropolitan area. Voters
in San Miguel (departmental capital of San Miguel department)
indicate a very strong preference for the PCN, and, in Santa
Ana, for the PDC. (Note: San Miguel Mayor Will Salgado was
previously elected on the ARENA ticket prior to his defection
to the PCN. End note.)


4. (SBU) Large numbers of Salvadorans (78 percent) indicate
an intent to vote, but many have still not decided for whom
they wish to vote (25.9 percent for mayoral candidates, and
27.2 percent for Legislative Assembly candidates). Many
Salvadorans also declined to inform pollsters of their
preferences for candidates (20 percent for mayoral
candidates, and 19.6 percent for Legislative Assembly
candidates). Approximately 47 percent of voters do not think
that their vote will result in solutions to their local
problems.

Candidate important--but unknown
--------------


5. (SBU) According to 57.8 percent of the population, the
individual candidate is what most influences their voting
preference. However, when asked to name their local
Legislative Assembly members, an overwhelming majority (77.6
percent) couldn't name a single Legislative Assembly
representative for their area. Only 3.7 percent could name
all of their representatives; 17.1 percent could name some
but not all deputies. When asked to name a Legislative
Assembly member from each party who had performed well in
office, approximately 4 out of 5 Salvadorans didn't name
anyone. This varied little by party, with the PDC's Rodolfo
Parker receiving the highest rating at 2.8 percent. The
now-deceased Schafik Handal rated second highest with 2.5
percent.

Criminal concern
--------------


6. (SBU) At just over 40 percent each, crime and economics
virtually tied as the number-one overall concern of those
interviewed. When asked what specific crime problems
concerned them, 27 percent stated delinquency, and 11.9
percent stated gangs. Economic issues of concern were more
diverse, with 12.7 percent of respondents citing
unemployment, 11.9 stating the economy, and 8.5 percent
stating poverty. When asked about local issues of concern,
infrastructure problems took the forefront, with lack of
water and bad streets topping the list (10.8 and 10.0,
respectively). Crime was identified as the second most
important problem, with delinquency and gangs being the
number one and two answers given in the category of security
(9.8 and 6.1 respectively).


7. (C) COMMENT: The most recent polling data was collected
before the January 24 death of longtime FMLN leader Schafik
Handal, which could cause slight shifts in voting patterns in
some races (see reftel C). Handal's death may provide a
temporary rallying point for FMLN hardliners recently
hard-pressed in finding issues of resonance to voters,
although any such phenomenon applies only to FMLN
strongholds, and in any event may be too short-lived to
affect the election significantly. The big prize in this
election continues to be the San Salvador vote, where 25
Legislative Assembly seats will be decided. The fight for
those seats is being waged by the highly popular Tony Saca
(rather than the weak ARENA candidate) against the FMLN
political machinery, which has controlled San Salvador and
its metropolitan area since the 1997 elections.
Barclay