POLL UNDERSCORES AMBASSADOR'S CONCERNS ON CRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002526

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2016
TAGS: ES KCRM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: POLL UNDERSCORES AMBASSADOR'S CONCERNS ON CRIME

REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 2204


B. SAN SALVADOR 1702

Classified By: CDA Michael A Butler. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: Results from a CID-Gallup poll publicized
October 17 in leading daily El Diario de Hoy demonstrate that
Salvadorans share the Ambassador's deep concern that
spiraling violent crime threatens El Salvador's continued
economic development and the consolidation of its democratic
institutions. (Note: The previous evening, the Ambassador
had highlighted many of the same public security concerns in
a major policy address attended by approximately 500 of the
country's most influential government, private sector, NGO,
and church leaders. End note.) Some 64 percent of those
surveyed now think the country is headed in the wrong
direction, compared with only 40 percent one year ago; 45
percent list crime and violence as their number-one concern,
followed by unemployment at only 18 percent. Just a year
earlier, unemployment had edged out crime (25 to 24 percent)
as Salvadorans' chief concern. The Ambassador told the
leading policy makers of the country in his address that El
Salvador must make improvements in the security situation
now, lest crime erodes the benefits of CAFTA-DR and a
Millennium compact. End Summary.


2. (U) The fact that rampant crime and violence is the
number one problem facing El Salvador has been widely
accepted here for months. The poll highlights this clearly.
Twenty-four percent of respondents report that either they or
a family member were victims of robbery or assault in just
the past four months. The poll reports that 47 percent of
people feel less safe in their neighborhoods and 55 percent
less safe riding buses since the Saca Administration took
power. Forty-one percent of people reported less confidence
in the police under Saca, and 90 percent (47 less, 43 equal)
said that the current administration has been equally or less
successful in the fight against gangs.


3. (U) This poll also sheds light on how the Salvadoran
public thinks the problem should be solved. Of those
interviewed, 25 percent believe there need to be stronger
punishments for criminals as the principal solution, 24
percent believe that the problem can best be solved if the
armed forces intervene to stop crime, and 24 percent believe
the death penalty should be legalized. Fifteen percent
believe El Salvador must first hire more police, and 12
percent believe the principal solution is to try minors as
adults. Support for these measures indicate how strongly the
public feels about taking more drastic actions to solve the
problem.


4. (U) The poll also asked why people believe the crime
problem has not abated. Thrity-five percent said that the
principal reason is because bad judges let gang members go
free, 16 percent mentioned lack of police, 12 percent said
poor leadership in the Legislative Assembly, 10 percent
underlined a lack of trust in the police, 8 percent said
because witnesses were too afraid to testify and 7 percent
blamed weak prosecutors. Salvadorans are also pessimistic
about the rehabilitation of criminals. Sixty-one percent
surveyed said they felt there was little or no possibility of
rehabilitation for violent criminals and 69 percent said
there was little or no chance that they would be friends with
or work at a job with rehabilitated violent criminals or gang
members.


5. (U) The final area of interest in this new polling data
has to do with dissatisfaction of Salvadorans with the
current political parties. Forty-eight percent said they had
no preferred political party, 28 percent named ARENA and 16
percent said FMLN. The poll also asked respondents to list
whom they blame for the bitter political polarization
paralyzing the government's ability to make compromise and
centrist decisions for the benefit of society. 29 percent
said the FMLN was either too aggressive or did not want
compromise, while 13 percent said the same of ARENA. Nine
percent blamed both parties and 11 percent cited simple lack
of leadership. The Ambassador touched on nearly all of these
concerns in his October 16 address hosted by Salvadoran think
tank FUSADES. He stressed that Salvadorans should take
responsibility and ownership of the problem and urged all
sectors of society to take part in solving the crisis. He
argued that the Salvadorans must get more criminals off the
street and behind bars now. He further emphasized the need
for better tax collection to help pay for these new
initiatives.


6. (C) Comment: The numbers from the recent poll are
troublesome for a number of reasons. We are not surprised at
how grave the crime problem is--it is palpable on the
streets. But the profound lack of faith in the
administration of justice and the facility with which
Salvadorans are willing to accept undemocratic solutions for
greater security are troubling. All of the dramatic
successes of taking a country from a devastating civil
conflict down the road of recovery could be put at risk if
the Salvadorans cannot muster the political will to address
the crime issue democratically. We will continue to help the
Salvadorans improve their administration of justice and rule
of law, while pressing that it is time for all sectors of
society in El Salvador to take responsibility for the issue.
Butler